Quote from Brendan R:
ok guys, I'm not into fighting mode. Most of those 13 trillions are not cash injected in the economy in the form of banknotes but guarantees aimed at stabilising the system. These 13 trillion shouldn't turn into hard cash otherwise we are in deep sh.t. AIG is an example of some of these guarantees actually being monetized. Rest assured that if tomorrow they only monetize a fraction of these guarantees, let's say 2 trillions, then it's game over.
It would mean these guarantees have turned into hard debt which would make everything explode.
Hopefully these guarantees are not monetized and we carry on living. If the economy doesn't get better and more AIGs materialize, then start counting the money and the bullets...
The leaders of today are gamblers with poor understanding of odds. Hopefully they will get lucky on this one.
Brendan, I don't want to fight either. Your original post was insightful and logical, albeit not an accurate reflection of events.
You make a good point about some bailout money being guarantees.
The problem - those 'guarantees' (and not the outright loans or cash bailouts) are a Government back-stop on DERIVATIVE LOSSES! Or cash earmarked for spending, a few months down the road!!
The actual cash spent -
6 weeks ago - was 4.1 Trillion Dollars. And still much of Tarp 2 plus the Obama stimulus is yet to be spent.
Thats 6 Trillion, total spent!! Half Way to Thunder Dome!!!
Instead of Government opting to fix the meltdown with an outright purchase of the underlying subprime crap for 2 Trillion - which they already have spent
THREE TIMES OVER - OR, nullifying CDS which is the real heart of the matter, they chose to let toxic derivatives fester unabated and just pay those losses when they come due!!!
It should be
OBVIOUS whats going on, here. This is outright
FRAUD.
As the economy slides, losses will mount and more CASH from those commitments WILL GET PAID.
To top it off, the economy buoys or sinks on the Bankers credit.
The off-switch is Banker-controlled and the FED and Treasury keep earmarking more taxpayer dollars for derivatives the Government could have
OUTLAWED 2 YEARS AGO!!
Think about it: wheres the incentive for Banks to lend and make a paltry 5 Billion per quarter, when they could restrict credit, finish the economy, and collect another
7 TRILLION FROM TAXPAYERS?! They already took us for 6 Trillion and the Government ponied up another 7 Trillion, just waiting in the wings!
ITS A SCAM!
They're gonna get it all and more. Probably 15 to 20 Trilliion when its all said and done.
And I agree with you, btw, about the market making another leg down.
Should prove to be another "windfall" for the extortionist-Bankers.
LOCK-AND-LOAD.
