Not understanding crude supply and demand

[formikatrading]

Hey Overnight! Hope all is well. That's what's great about trading the markets. We all can have our own beliefs. Peace out!

COT is a lagging indicator. Think more along the lines of API/PLATTS, EIA, and Baker Hughes.

 

[dozu888]

Hey Overnight! Hope all is well. That's what's great about trading the markets. We all can have our own beliefs. Peace out!

Overnight is a terrible trader...

 

[wrbtrader]

I've been watching crude for the last week due to it being near peak crude consumption season for winter.

There have been a handful of reports (EIA, OPEC, etc) that are generally bearish. Supplies are high, which should send the front month futures down as manufacturers begin offloading their glut of supplies into later delivery months (summer in particular).

However, this isn't happening. /CL has been on a rally for basically the last 2-3 days. This doesn't make sense to me.

What am I missing? Does supply and demand not work as expected in /CL?

If you've only been watching a price chart of CL and a handful of reports for one week...

You're missing a lot as in you need to study it a lot longer than a week. Yet, you mentioning several things involving supplies, delivery months, summer would imply you're not trying to day trade CL. Yet, if you're watching that type of info and you're trying to day trade CL...that could be the start of your problems.

Also, you made your post yesterday on Thursday while saying CL has been rallying 2 - 3 days. I didn't see a rally on Thursday nor Tuesday. Therefore, the only rally day was Wednesday of that 2 - 3 day duration that you mentioned.

wrbtrader

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I'm with SimpleMeLike and dozu888 on this one. The closest thing to fundamentals that I look at with Crude is the COT data.

The closet thing fundamentally I look at with crude oil is absolutely nothing. Why should I? I'm one person and one brain. The charts show everything I need to know. The chart reading is the edge. What sense it makes reading oil reports? That damn oil reports not going to show me where to enter the trade, exit or manegement of the trade.

Those oil reports are not useful for me.

 

[bone]

Well, to drill down a bit more - you have to be able to quickly interpret the statistics presented in a report, which is no insignificant matter. It’s not like the EIA, API, or the DoE make Buy or Sell conclusions. What’s more, I’ve seen markets react differently to news that might at first glance seem to be bullish or bearish.

The closet thing fundamentally I look at with crude oil is absolutely nothing. Why should I? I'm one person and one brain. The charts show everything I need to know. The chart reading is the edge. What sense it makes reading oil reports? That damn oil reports not going to show me where to enter the trade, exit or manegement of the trade.

Those oil reports are not useful for me.

 

[themickey]

The closet thing fundamentally I look at with crude oil is absolutely nothing. Why should I? I'm one person and one brain. The charts show everything I need to know. The chart reading is the edge. What sense it makes reading oil reports? That damn oil reports not going to show me where to enter the trade, exit or manegement of the trade.
Those oil reports are not useful for me.

Well, to drill down a bit more - you have to be able to quickly interpret the statistics presented in a report, which is no insignificant matter. It’s not like the EIA, API, or the DoE make Buy or Sell conclusions. What’s more, I’ve seen markets react differently to news that might at first glance seem to be bullish or bearish.

I gotta agree with SML, there's a gazzillion traders studying reports and they are all interpreting the information differently but as Bone mentions, the mkt reacts differently to our obvious beliefs.
My one hopelessly incompetent brain has zero chance making head or tails of fundamentals, so the best a retail trader can do is make some type of informed decision on oil price behaviour.
That's how I trade, but instead of using a chart I use a spreadsheet of hundreds of stocks then number crunch the results to show a picture of the bias.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

curious - how many ticks can you get per day.... this thing moves like mad lol... maybe I should give it a go... a simple break out system should work decent..

Hello dozu888,

Yes a simple breakout out system on the lower timeframe chart is what I focus on. I am working on an trading strategey edge confirmation where I get about 10-20 ticks per day or per trade. being patient is the challenging part. What I like about crude oil is once it start moving, it moves.

Give it a go. Trade management willl be the most challenging part.