Quote from mokwit:
"know when its just locals pushing it around vs directional buying/selling"
This seems to be the crux of the problem from what I have gleaned from talking with former floor traders. The key to making money in intraday futures seems to be being able to distinguish between the two. i.e. when to fade and when to go with it. The only place I found consistency with a big enough R:R was running with the stop runners. Unfortunately it is not that simple as the futures market operates in the second derivative as well as the first derivative - by that I mean moves designed to wrong foot/fake out those who are running with the stop runners (and against the public that operates in the first derivative i.e. at face value). Problem is moves against those running with the stop runners happen very fast. Also a manipulation can be long or short in intraday futures and big enough to force you to make a decision on the position, whereas in daily stocks you know the direction LT is generally long and this makes it much easier to sit through countermoves if your entry is good enough - in stocks as someone said here, you have 2 days to take the trade , whereas in futures it the high R:R entry is there for 2 seconds.
i can not disagree with what you said. but i would add that while there is no fool-proof way of determining chop vs. beginning of a directional move....there are hints out there. there a few different threads that reveal some of those hints.....the inventory alert thread is one, the ES journal is another.
here is what i sent a struggling trader via pm today....
please do not take this the wrong way, but i could tell what i do and you would probably still lose money. the reason, imo, is that even with valid set-ups it is the psychological realm where the battle is won or lost.
having said that....
i take 2-3 trades ES per day (sometimes just 1), the fewer trades i make is usually the better. i try to identify early in the day whether the market is range bound and will rotate between known s/r levels (everyone knows the same levels...the trick is knowing when those levels may not hold) versus when the market is breaking out - up or down..and how far it might go and what you will do if and when it does that or does not do that. hesitation will cause you to chase price later after it has already moved.... and the result is poor trade location.
i use no indicators. i watch MP levels (daily and multiple day composites) for long-term view, and i watch price action and vol. and internals (add, tick, vix, vold) very closely for entry and exit. i use a 2 min. chart, 5 min. chart, 30 min. chart.,
www.marketdelta.com, and i do my own volume profile analysis., i also look for intermarket diveregences.....NQ vs ES vs YM vs Russel, but i only trade ES.
good luck.
