I'm not a probabilities genius by any stretch . . . and I don't play one on t.v., but Talon knows his stuff and I wouldn't give this junk a second thought without following his recommendation to debunk/prove any perceived edge.
Some time ago, I built my own probability model to better understand what actual results might be for three of my strategies with very quantifiable results . . . it's was very eye-opening to say the least. I could have a string of losses much higher than I realized.
It's no different than assuming that 50% of the time a coin will land on heads. No, it won't. Well, not unless you flip it more times than I care to.
If there are 25,000 occurrences with this heat map and there are 360 outcomes, doesn't that mean that each outcome had 70 measurable inputs? Flip a coin 70 times (http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html) and you get near the same random results that are in the heat map . . . heat map is suspectedly more "weighted" given the up-bias of the market.
Random is random. Cause and effect are not known. But there are still predictable behaviours within the randomness.
Keep trading.
J. Scott
