Quote from crash n burn:
This heat map represents the statistical distribution of positive days during the last 100 years of trading at the US equity markets.
After careful ponderation, I have decided to post it here on ET as a token of appreciation for all the good laughs and interesting reading has offered me throughout the years.
As you might imagine this doesn't need much updating, so this static table will be a nice aid for your trading efforts going forward, especially if you are still a struggling trader.
Just observe its accuracy rate over the next couple of months before deciding whether it is viable or not and report back to this thread, so others can benefit too.
Good luck all
cnb: well done.
I happen to have created something similar, and what you created is very useful.
Equally important, your chart will spark other good ideas.
Here's an additional idea for you. Create a supplemental version by replacing your left numbered column (1-31) with a day-of-week column (M, Tu, W, Th, F). You'll see the day-of-week effect, sliced by month.
Here are some small suggestions that may or may not appeal to you:
Carrying the significant figures out to two decimals is too much (not useful) precision and interferes a little with the mind's pattern recognition.
Consider dropping the decimals, and just round to the whole number percentage.
Consider categorizing as 'neutral' anything between, say, 49-51% or anything within, say, 1 standard deviation.
Maybe add true heat map color to it. Let, say, orange and red down days and green or blue be up days. Gray can be neutral days within a standard deviation or whatever.
For the month slice, you can also aggregate the months into seasons to see a valid and tradeable seasonal message.
Very nice.
