Not Holy but Close Grail

[piezoe]

Well, Crash, that's one in a row!
Put that in your hat and "ponderize" it.

 

[macal425]

Is this based on the Dow? Since there are days where the Dow is negative and other broader indexes are positive (possible outcome for today), how do we class such days?

 

[rmarvin001]

I find it funny and interesting that April 15 has the greatest probability of an up day (over 82%).

 

[vinc]

Is this a close - to -close statistics or open -to-close one?
Thanks for sharing

 

[alinur]

cool heat map... where did you get that, its really a useful tool !

 

[wavel]

Thanks this is interesting stuff.

 

[slapshot]

Quote from alinur:

cool heat map... where did you get that, its really a useful tool !

Ah, and now here comes the one-post shill. Next we will hear where to subscribe.

For all newbies: this information is academic at best and utterly useless at worst. Certainly not worth paying for.

Bull markets have almost as many down days as up days.

Bear markets have almost as many up days as down days.

But in a bull market, the ATR of up days is higher. In other words, the average up day might be say perhaps 12 SP points on average, but the down days are only 8 points down. Hence the market moves up over time. Opposite for bear markets.

Looking at this heat map will only delude someone into thinking they actually know what is going to happen next - a most dangerous state of mind for a trader.

 

[circadian]

Quote from crash n burn:

This heat map represents the statistical distribution of positive days during the last 100 years of trading at the US equity markets.

After careful ponderation, I have decided to post it here on ET as a token of appreciation for all the good laughs and interesting reading has offered me throughout the years.

As you might imagine this doesn't need much updating, so this static table will be a nice aid for your trading efforts going forward, especially if you are still a struggling trader.

Just observe its accuracy rate over the next couple of months before deciding whether it is viable or not and report back to this thread, so others can benefit too.

Good luck all

Elitetrader needs more of this stuff. Thank you for sharing.

 

[loufah]

Thanks for the map. It confirms some things we sort of suspected: the market tends to go up at the beginning of each month as new money from paychecks flows in, and in mid-April as people scramble to fund their previous year's IRA, and around Thanksgiving due to expectations for a good retail season.

I'd like to see a map sorted by weeks-before-options-expiration, if you could.

 

[loufah]

This reminded me of something from Hulbert a couple days ago about a market timing system based on the beginnings/ends of months and holidays. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/update-on-highest-ranked-timing-system-2010-02-04

the Seasonality Timing System does appear to be backed up by strong theory and evidence. Research conducted by Wharton University Professor Donald Keim has confirmed that there are distinct calendar-based patterns to how stocks trade, most likely because of when periodic retirement plan contributions hit the market, tax-loss selling, and short-term traders' reluctance to be exposed to stocks over a long holiday weekend.