Not a crypto post

[MrMuppet]

At 100 million contracts that must surely make you the biggest player in the futures world?

Oh god you muppet. RSJ is trading more than that in a single month. Their yearly notional volume is more than GDP of Italy...

100m contracts per year is nothing to sneeze at
but it's also not breaking records. Trade 100k contracts in the Eurodollars per day, thats 25m per year...a lot for a hand clicker, but quite doable for an algo desk. 50.5% winrate, prolly 20% scratchrate, so a fraction of a tick profit after clearing/banking + rebates.


So pls stop the jeering and educate yourself

And hey comagnum and henry, just a little tip: there's more than just ZN, 6E and ES...and OP might trade a lot of those markets at the same time...

@garachen: You knew why you stopped posting so do yourself a favour and remind yourself of the reasons This forum is full of griefers and trolls.

We talked about kryptos too much here anyways, so lets keep it quiet untill there's no edge anymore.

In 5 years you'll either have a nice story to tell when kryptos have blown up or you have 20 guys sitting on your krypto desk while a new breed of krypto vendors is selling krypto tailored TA and orderflow to the sheeple here on ET.

I followed you for a long time and it was nice reading from you again, but you know...people here don't listen anyways and you better go out for a couple of lagers to satisfy your social needs instead of trying to educate the lazy and dumb. You said too much anyways...

Farewell

 

[henry76]

I don't believe "notional" value was mentioned in the quote , simply number of contracts .

 

[henry76]

And on that basis I found this
17 Apr 2012 - Based on the number of contracts traded and/or cleared at 81 exchanges worldwide. 2010. 2011. % Change ... the world rose 11.4% to a total of 24.97 billion contracts. ..
Admittedly from 2012 but even so 200 million represents just shy of 1% of total worldwide traded contracts , for an individual that must be a record surely , ( I know that's out of date but even so....

 

[MrMuppet]

And on that basis I found this
17 Apr 2012 - Based on the number of contracts traded and/or cleared at 81 exchanges worldwide. 2010. 2011. % Change ... the world rose 11.4% to a total of 24.97 billion contracts. ..
Admittedly from 2012 but even so 200 million represents just shy of 1% of total worldwide traded contracts , for an individual that must be a record surely , ( I know that's out of date but even so....

Read again...he's not an individual...and dude 2012...did we even have reg NMS back then?

GE alone trades around 2m contracts PER DAY.

 

[garachen]

At 100 million contracts that must surely make you the biggest player in the futures world?

No. The biggest ones do around 2 million contracts a day. About 5 of those guys. I'd put myself in the top 20 in volume.

 

[garachen]

Oh god you muppet. RSJ is trading more than that in a single month. Their yearly notional volume is more than GDP of Italy...

100m contracts per year is nothing to sneeze at
but it's also not breaking records. Trade 100k contracts in the Eurodollars per day, thats 25m per year...a lot for a hand clicker, but quite doable for an algo desk. 50.5% winrate, prolly 20% scratchrate, so a fraction of a tick profit after clearing/banking + rebates.


So pls stop the jeering and educate yourself

And hey comagnum and henry, just a little tip: there's more than just ZN, 6E and ES...and OP might trade a lot of those markets at the same time...

@garachen: You knew why you stopped posting so do yourself a favour and remind yourself of the reasons This forum is full of griefers and trolls.

We talked about kryptos too much here anyways, so lets keep it quiet untill there's no edge anymore.

In 5 years you'll either have a nice story to tell when kryptos have blown up or you have 20 guys sitting on your krypto desk while a new breed of krypto vendors is selling krypto tailored TA and orderflow to the sheeple here on ET.

I followed you for a long time and it was nice reading from you again, but you know...people here don't listen anyways and you better go out for a couple of lagers to satisfy your social needs instead of trying to educate the lazy and dumb. You said too much anyways...

Farewell

You are right. I left because nobody seems to ever progress and people can't even agree on trading terminology basics. All threads eventually devolve into the same tired rants and namecalling sessions that have been worked over hundreds of times. None of the vocabulary or demeanor represents anything actually found in the industry. No work gets done. No collaboration happens. I guess I keep hoping that this forum will become something that it's not anymore.

I'll respond for a few more days then check back in a year.

 

[henry76]

My apologies Muppet, I didn't realise GE did as many as 2 million a day , though it seems that is by far the biggest volume of contracts from what I can see at a quick glance.

 

[carrer]

Specific strategy doesn't matter much. (As long as it's not TA.) Just build a slightly better mousetrap than the people currently in the space. It's not that hard. There are lots of things to look at.

Noticed that you are going to take a break from ET and I do not want to miss the chance to ask you this.

When you say that you are not trading TA, what else could it be? Value investing doesn't apply to bitcoins like the share market. So, I am curious.

Can you elaborate, Thanks.

 

[Topfer]

@carrer
I have some ideas just from the top of my head.. Take it with a grain of salt since I don't trade cryptos, I just buy them for long term. I do trade mean reversion in stocks though.

1. Good old momentum following.. I guess for intraday momentum following you could use EWMA crossovers, opening range breakouts, inside bar breakouts etc. On longer timeframes again you could moving average crossovers, or just going long the particular crypto that has risen the most recently. The time window used for deciding the hottest coin would have to be decided of course. A tweak to this would be to use the difference of returns and going long the coin that has been accelerating recently.

2. You could look at seasonality. For example you could look at the strongest time of the day, the strongest day of the week etc. Since this is a 24/7 open market, I'm curious if there is a difference in market activity during US/Europe sessions and Asian sessions.

3. Relative value.. I'm a bit skeptical but maybe there is a stable relationship between the value of various coins.

4. During times of big moves up or down, prices seem to get out of sync among exchanges. From what I've seen, the discrepancies can get really large, like up to 10%. I don't know if there is a way to trade this since moving coins/money across exchanges is not easy.

 

[MrMuppet]

@all: watch market, use brain and some math, read reddit...that's it.

If you can't make money with that info...well, you're probably lightyears away from being a profitable trader