The doran survey is a joke....
it was another 75 out 77 agw nutter survey.
And it does not claim that man made co2 is causing the warming
you are getting very low fc... very low.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/about-that-overwhelming-98-number-of-scientists-consensus/
So where did that famous âconsensusâ claim that â98% of all scientists believe in global warmingâ come from? It originated from an endlessly reported 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) survey consisting of an intentionally brief two-minute, two question online survey sent to 10,257 earth scientists by two researchers at the University of Illinois. Of the about 3.000 who responded, 82% answered âyesâ to the second question, which like the first, most people I know would also have agreed with.
Then of those, only a small subset, just 77 who had been successful in getting more than half of their papers recently accepted by peer-reviewed climate science journals, were considered in their survey statistic. That â98% all scientistsâ referred to a laughably puny number of 75 of those 77 who answered âyesâ.
That anything-but-scientific survey asked two questions. The first: âWhen compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?â Few would be expected to dispute thisâ¦the planet began thawing out of the âLittle Ice Ageâ in the middle 19th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. (That was the coldest period since the last real Ice Age ended roughly 10,000 years ago.)
The second question asked: âDo you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?â So what constitutes âsignificantâ? Does âchangingâ include both cooling and warming⦠and for both âbetterâ and âworseâ? And which contributionsâ¦does this include land use changes, such as agriculture and deforestation?
Read the whole article: That Scientific Global Warming Consensusâ¦Not! â Forbes
Quote from futurecurrents:
Subsequent research has confirmed this result. A survey of 3146 earth scientists asked the question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009). More than 90% of participants had Ph.D.s, and 7% had masterâs degrees. Overall, 82% of the scientists answered yes. However, what are most interesting are responses compared to the level of expertise in climate science. Of scientists who were non-climatologists and didn't publish research, 77% answered yes. In contrast, 97.5% of climatologists who actively publish research on climate change responded yes. As the level of active research and specialization in climate science increases, so does agreement that humans are significantly changing global temperatures.
Figure 1: Response to the survey question "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" (Doran 2009) General public data come from a 2008 Gallup poll.
Most striking is the divide between expert climate scientists (97.4%) and the general public (58%). The paper concludes:
"It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes. The challenge, rather, appears to be how to effectively communicate this fact to policy makers and to a public that continues to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists."