Hey there... new guy here about to jump into day trading... so far I have perused a few posts/trading journals on this site, read a few day trading books on my Kindle from Amazon and about to open my TD account, so i can use their Think or Swim platform...
I have heard it stated multiple times "its not as easy as it sounds", "90% of traders lose money" and I just don't "get it." I am itching to get on the Think or Swim paper money sim to see how wrong I am... but can someone explain why this is so hard?
In my head I am thinking: study 1 pattern, make a scanner for it and be disciplined enough to only enter trades that meet that strict criteria, enter the trade with a stop/profit target that's 3:1 and just wait. It either hits the stop or I get the target. I specifically entered into conditions that are probable/favorable in this trade, so presumably I will hit the profit more than 50% of the time. At a 3:1 ratio, the profits are guaranteed. I see post after post of people saying they are grinding this out for years before they break even and eventually get into meager profit. It seems like as long as you pick your stop appropriately, the numbers should work out long term. If the account is 75K and you gain an average of just 0.2% gain a day, that's 6%/4.5K a month. If you have considerably more than this, the % gain requirements are even lower for a decent overall profit.
Alright. Once you are done laughing at my naive view of the world, can you then explain the flaw in my logic?
What it takes to be profitable in short term trading is counterintuitive to "normal" thinking.
For example, the trading adage "Buy the rumor and sell the fact" is good advice. However most new traders will initiate a trade based on a single news story or a price spike.
Another example of a mistake a new short term trader may make is equating declining price as increasing value. Their reasoning is typically along the lines of: "This is a great stock and I can now get it at a bargain price"! There are some very short term exceptions, but require experience and decisive action.
Sometimes, someone I know, ahem, will buy a "weak sister" related to a stock that has performed very strongly. Feeling they missed a move in the strong stock, they hope the weak sister will catch up. Like the lottery, it rarely does.
There is a natural selection bias against taking profitable trades. Most good opportunities don't last long. The window for entering profitable trade is usually much smaller than entering a unprofitable trade. Some traders will use a time stop in addition to a price stop.
Gaming theory implies those who take the initiative will outperform those who merely react. For example, some people will enter on a price spike( wide bar), others are exiting on a price spike. Another trading adage is "Buy when it is quiet, sell when it is wild".
There are many profitable trading styles that actually conflict with one another. The profitability of these styles depends upon the context of the current trading environment. For example, a short term trend trader is on the look out for significant stock moving catalysts in order to find the conditions that suit his style. This implies following several stocks as most of the time, a particular stock usually is in a trading range, making it hard for a trend trader to be profitable. A scalper however, generally will focus on a single issue in order to learn it's nuances. They will be able to make small amounts on each high probability trade they make. This style requires strong focus and decisive action.
Fortunately for you, you seem aware of money management. The real killer of new traders is taking on too much risk and letting losers run. Some double down or worse on losers. Think of a losing trade this way: My objective is to find an opportunity that will likely have a positive expectation without my risking impairing my trading account to a significant degree. Any trade that does not meet this primary requirement shows either that you were off on timing, misread the situation, or that market conditions have changed since you initiated the trade. Now this losing trade has shown itself to not be the opportunity you thought it would be, you get out. Stops a little past resistance or support, depending whether you are short or you are long are usually appropiate. There will be times you get stopped out only to see the price move massively in your favor. Don't let this rattle you to the point where you no longer use stops. You will really hurt your account performance if you "get married" to a long term losing trade.
Like anything else, your success at trading depends on how much effort and work you put in to it. Until you develop consistently profitable trading results, keep your trade sizes small. It is one thing to read the rules of a card game and quite another when playing it.
Good luck and best wishes to you.