Non-farm Set To Be A Big Negative Number

[THE-BEAKER]

well i dont like to put my neck on the chopping block but here goes.

I think it could minus 250 thousand to 300 thousand.

yes thats right -250k to -300 k .

possible more.

my reasoning.

the bls birth/death model has added quite a lot of jobs each month for the last 6 months based on their own model assumption.

every january and july for the last 6 years they have only had a negative birth/death number which when subtracted from non-farm has made it less.

the reason they do this is a tweak of the number in relation to the reality of the previous 6 months.

well the last 6 months with yesterdays weak gdp will only confirm they have been too optimistic and their model needs adjusting.

with the natural layoffs occuring and the birth/death model being adjusted to the downside i think we will see a significant negative number.

bond futures and fixed income have been well bid all week even when the stocks had the up days.

could be wrong but im positioned accordingly.

 

[KeithOmalley]

Quote from THE-BEAKER:

well i dont like to put my neck on the chopping block but here goes.

I think it could minus 250 thousand to 300 thousand.

yes thats right -250k to -300 k .

possible more.

my reasoning.

the bls birth/death model has added quite a lot of jobs each month for the last 6 months based on their own model assumption.

every january and july for the last 6 years they have only had a negative birth/death number which when subtracted from non-farm has made it less.

the reason they do this is a tweak of the number in relation to the reality of the previous 6 months.

well the last 6 months with yesterdays weak gdp will only confirm they have been too optimistic and their model needs adjusting.

with the natural layoffs occuring and the birth/death model being adjusted to the downside i think we will see a significant negative number.

bond futures and fixed income have been well bid all week even when the stocks had the up days.

could be wrong but im positioned accordingly.

birth/death model? i why would births matter? would it not be better to have a death/people entering workforce model? let me know your thoughts.

"well the last 6 months with yesterdays weak gdp will only confirm they have been too optimistic and their model needs adjusting."

gdp was negetive 4th q 2007 and we where adding jobs for the 4th quarter. 2nd quarter gdp was 2x as strong as first quarter. does gdp have anything to do with jobs?

 

[cvds16]

on the other hand, the USD has been rising over the last two weeks ... so one might just say the inverse. We'll know in an hour and a half I got no positions on going into the number however.

 

[THE-BEAKER]

Quote from KeithOmalley:

birth/death model? i why would births matter? would it not be better to have a death/people entering workforce model? let me know your thoughts.

"well the last 6 months with yesterdays weak gdp will only confirm they have been too optimistic and their model needs adjusting."

gdp was negetive 4th q 2007 and we where adding jobs for the 4th quarter. 2nd quarter gdp was 2x as strong as first quarter. does gdp have anything to do with jobs?

the birth/death model refers to the creation and end of business within the economy and people employed off the radar screen.

not physical birth and deaths of people.

 

[The Kin]

It's a load of bullshit. All lies, but we must pay attention because they still move the market. Long term anything short USD can't be a bad thing.

 

[Bogan7]

Good report/bad report for most day traders its a moot point we arent in charge of billions of dollars of assets we have to allocate we simply have to trade the market as it appears. Get over yourselves and just trade.

 

[S2007S]

That many lost jobs and I think kudlow might turn bearish. The ADP report of a gain of 9000 jobs is A damn joke. I think job losses could top 100,000.

 

[gnome]

With population increases, the economy needs something like 100,000* jobs per month just to keep unemployment flat. The jobs reported by Gummint have been waaayyyy behind that.... recessionary, really.

*estimate of net new workers... number of 18-22 year olds entering the work force, minus the 65-ish ones leaving for retirement.

 

[otcstockfund]

Quote from KeithOmalley:

birth/death model? i why would births matter? would it not be better to have a death/people entering workforce model? let me know your thoughts.

"well the last 6 months with yesterdays weak gdp will only confirm they have been too optimistic and their model needs adjusting."

gdp was negetive 4th q 2007 and we where adding jobs for the 4th quarter. 2nd quarter gdp was 2x as strong as first quarter. does gdp have anything to do with jobs?

the b/d grossly overstates jobs created/lost at turning points since its basing its model on previous historical information

 

[NoDoji]

Better than expected; now stop all this chatter and get to work