Good analysis, Max. ZH periodically reviews historical forecasting accuracy of various institutions - examines 10 years worth of economic predictions to see how they fared. Every agency in the US Government, EU, IMF, Worldbank failed miserably. In some cases, their growth estimates were 40-60% GDP out of synch with actual results, based on a 10 year look-back! Always to the upside!!!
They all talk their book. They are all full of shit and couldn't predict the next two days, let alone 2 years. Devil is in the details. When the covers are pulled back and the details examined, the predictions are ludicrous. 4-5% real growth rates. 1-2% inflation. Huge rebounds in employment. It's all crap. The deficit will stay above 1 Trillion, for some time. The FED is ramping up QE to keep the paper deficit down. Iow, make it look like the economy is recovering, while the FED buys 1 trillion in ABS and Tbills with newly printed money. It's all a confidence game. All the agencies, forecasts, slick beaucrats in 10K suits. It's all a confidence game. If they came out with REAL numbers, with real CPI, and realistic growth projections.....our number#1 export would take it in the ass (treasury debt). And down with it, our way of life. Keeps the music going just alittle bit longer...
