NoDoji's Day Trading Log

[trader_david]

that is not true. I read the house data everytime, also the data trend before I trade. the house data shows "continous 4month improvement", in an up trend, that means the odd is trending up again (already bottomed out), so I have this already in mind also the market conses or prediction. I think most big gun guys are doing the same as me, admit i am not a big gun, just a litte minnow. those preparings are critical to seize the opportunity. most people do not have any idea about house data trend/prediction, sit there blindly, of course they got lost, when it starts to go up, they are afraid of being trapped by jumping on the gun or whatever. they are not doing trading, they are gamling!

you should blame yourself for not working diligently to get the basic idea of those data before you trade.

Quote from BPtrader:

You are not at a level playing field with big institutions. Most of these news items are released to the big institutions minutes before being made public. Pay attention to the pre-news buying or selling and you will see they clearly know something that we don't. Today, for instance, big buyers stepped in minutes before 10am. 9:59 big green bar is a clear sign that they knew what the housing # was.

If you knew the # before it was made public, you had at least 5 minutes to build up your huge, monstrous long position in ES. Big institutions made money with inside information, while you wonder why you didn't pull the trigger. It's easy to explain why you didn't pull the trigger: you had no clue what the housing # was.

I live in a 6-story building and you don't know if I live on the ground floor or the 6th floor, if I ask you to step out of my window blind-folded, would you do it?

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from trader_david:

then I realized ANIK was poumped up 70% then dropped from 8.8 to 6.8 yesterday, that must be a pump and dump. so I shorted it very comfortably, actually it is a good call, it is on today's top loser list.

David, no disrespect intended, but I see absolutely NO indication to short a biotech stock that just reported good news, left behind a stable support level above the gap open, and closed yesterday under solid buying volume (full green candle).

It's a good call now because it moved in your favor, but I don't see any logic behind shorting it AFTER yesterday's 2.00 retracement.

 

[trader_david]

i did not see support at 7 (that is most peole will think a good support since it toke off from there), i think the support is 8~7.8, break that level the stock is breaking its leg. if it shoot from 7.8 to 8.8 after it retraced to 7.8, I will not short it. dropped to 6.8, to me it is a sure short.

Quote from NoDoji:

David, no disrespect intended, but I see absolutely NO indication to short a biotech stock that just reported good news, left behind a stable support level above the gap open, and closed yesterday under solid buying volume (full green candle).

It's a good call now because it moved in your favor, but I don't see any logic behind shorting it AFTER yesterday's 2.00 retracement.

 

[BPtrader]

Quote from trader_david:

that is not true. I read the house data everytime, also the data trend before I trade. the house data shows "continous 4month improvement", in an up trend, that means the odd is trending up again (already bottomed out), so I have this already in mind also the market conses or prediction. I think most big gun guys are doing the same as me, admit i am not a big gun, just a litte minnow. those preparings are critical to seize the opportunity. most people do not have any idea about house data trend/prediction, sit there blindly, of course they got lost, when it starts to go up, they are afraid of being trapped by jumping on the gun or whatever. they are not doing trading, they are gamling!

In my book, your way of trading is wrong.

 

[BPtrader]

Quote from NoDoji:

BP, I was about to post that question here next. I saw price creeping up in advance of the news and thought, "It looks like the numbers are already out and they're good". I figured SOMEONE knew something. I wondered if indeed this news is released to institutions in advance of the scheduled hour, and if it's wise as a retail trader to grab onto the coattails of that anticipatory action.

Is it most often a strong indicator of the move, or are there a lot of fakeouts?

One more question: If I had a buy stop order in place that made a move like that on news the slippage would've probably taken a quarter of my profits.

If I had a 1116.50 buy stop on ES pre-news this morning, say 1-5 contracts, and it jumped right to 1021-ish, what kind of slippage could I expect on a quick move right through my order?

To your first question, it all depends. You have watched enough to know that there is no fixed pattern. To use a cliche, every post-news movement is unique, for instance, the post-Fed movement last week.

To your second question, I don't know. I never used "buy stop" order. Slippage is inevitable if you want to get into a position fast.

 

[trader_david]

absolutely wrong, totally agree, comrade.

gamblers always blame for others. they will say ltheir computers are slow, or internet connection problems, or someone has better well advanced info!

when the price starts to creep up before the number, that means someone already has some idea about the data, they did research, they do not know the exact number, but they know the data trend!

Quote from BPtrader:

In my book, your way of trading is wrong.

 

[satchel]

Quote from NoDoji:


I’m curious how futures traders trade these news events, because by not having my order in place in advance today, I missed my entry and a very good trade.

As many answers for this as perhaps there are traders.

In a way, you must think that the futures/market will not react in a conventional way. Then you are ready.
IMO for this particular day: check GLOBEX, wee hours micro-macro view. Clues abound. Yes - different than a regular over night with similar price action that results in a sell off.

 

[bighog]

satchel


Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1385


08-21-09 06:38 PM



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Quote from NoDoji:


I’m curious how futures traders trade these news events, because by not having my order in place in advance today, I missed my entry and a very good trade.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



As many answers for this as perhaps there are traders.



........................................................................................................

and thats the challenge of the whole game........beating the big dogs at their game. At the end of the day and showing profits i know i picked someones pockets, hopefully it was some nerd that went to prep school and on to Harvard with Mommy and Daddy money. I love beating republican spoiled tax dodgers.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I guess if you traded long today, it could have been shorts who were short a lot lower thinking the market could never rally this much.

Or maybe you beat a bot.

Quote from bighog:

satchel


Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1385


08-21-09 06:38 PM



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from NoDoji:


I’m curious how futures traders trade these news events, because by not having my order in place in advance today, I missed my entry and a very good trade.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



As many answers for this as perhaps there are traders.



........................................................................................................

and thats the challenge of the whole game........beating the big dogs at their game. At the end of the day and showing profits i know i picked someones pockets, hopefully it was some nerd that went to prep school and on to Harvard with Mommy and Daddy money. I love beating republican spoiled tax dodgers.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I wonder something, lets say 10% of a stock is shorted. The stock goes down 5%, so the long holders are down at least on paper and could be real losses when or if sold.

So now the 10% of the float that was short is now up on paper and real if they cashed in.

But in truth, the shorts did not make the full amount of profit that the longs lost since it was not 50% longs long and 50% shorts short of the float.

So where did this money go if the shorts did not make it?

Or lets take another example, a stock goes IPO, no shorts. The stock goes straight up 10 points. So who lost money on the stock?

I will give you a real example, once I was allowed to buy pre-IPO. I made good money on flipping the stock. I am sure the stock later fell, but at the time I sold, did anyone lose money? Or did the buyers of my stock lose money later on in time to the shorts?