+$122
The ES move off the news in pre-market caught me off guard with its speed and since I didnât have any stop orders bracketed in advance, I missed the trade. Iâm hesitant to place bracketed orders pre-news because when I watched the action yesterday on the news it was whipsaw city, leaving no time to react. Itâs probably safer for me at this point in my trading to avoid those plays. Any opinions from the seasoned e-mini traders out there?
I didnât trade either opening range trigger (long @ 1009.00, short @ 1002.00), although either one produced 2 pts or better. I also failed to take a confirmed early long signal @ 1002.25 after a series of doji bars left higher lows and price broke up through the 20 EMA, because I didnât feel that my max 3 pt stop would survive a drop back to support.
So with my ES focus done for the morning, I traded TIF near its major resistance zone.
(I am going to admit, however, that when price moved back up to test the 1013.00 HOD, I changed my ES qty field to 5, placed my cursor to the sell side, and vacillated like crazy whether to short @ 1012.50 and place a stop @ 1013.50, risking my max loss, but looking for a possible 15 pt gain on a trip back to the 20 EMA. But I remembered how many times I thought price was âtoo highâ to break out again, and how easily it then did just that, and then I heard BigHog in my head saying, âNoD, there are much stronger setups to put risk your max loss on.â And so I stopped myself. Despite the move back to the 20 EMA providing 20 pts in this case, I still believe I did the right thing.)
Chased a TIF short @ 30.17 after it left an F/U candle and started to fall toward the LOD, covered near b/e when it quickly found support above the LOD: -$4
I saw later that this bounce above the LOD left a hammer with a higher low, a superb long signal that I failed to see at the time (it's so easy to see what do to later on when the chart is all filled out!), missing a straight up .60 cent move, or a full dayâs trend depending on oneâs time frame.
Short TIF 30.69 when it broke the HOD and stalled. Since I was top-picking, I placed a very tight stop hit for -$10.
Short TIF @ 30.65, on a quick pullback from HOD on large selling volume, stop above HOD. Trade became minimally profitable, but when that selling volume failed to budge the price, I moved my stop to the top of my entry bar and was taken out @ 30.74 for - $20.
Short TIF @ 31.13 after the final part of ride up occurred on almost non-existent volume and price pulled back from the new HOD on the first selling pressure in 13 bars. This was a high probability trade and I intended to short a full position, but forgot to change my qty field from 200 to 500.
When price dropped and my P/L was less than expected I realized the mistake, but did not chase the remaining position, since this was still a top-picking trade despite the additional confirmation in my favor. This turned out to be a fine short trade and with the strength of the retail sector today, I covered @ 30.79, oversold and pennies above previous support, just .02 cents from the pivot low, for a $65 gain.
Made a big mistake chasing a BNI short. I missed a decent short at an internal double top because I didnât look at the chart till it was over. Saw a lower high a little while later, stared at it, then chased the entry when it dropped, getting short @ 83.59 instead of at the 83.71 I'd been staring at. As soon as I was in, I slapped my forehead, realizing what a weak setup it was! I immediately saw the bigger picture: low volume selling and stochastics only 2/3 of the way to overbought, meaning a move to the upside was far more likely than a move down, because it had shown great strength on the day and buyers came in with volume on the last dip. I knew Iâd get whipsawed at best and contemplated exiting immediately close to b/e, which was the smart choice. Instead I let my stop above the lower high get hit for - $32. (Attached chart shows the good entry and my bad entry.)
Later the market and TIF broke to the upside and as I watched TIFâs price action as it stalled around 31.43, I remained patient. Yes, there was a potential short setup, new high, price stalled, overbought, dried up volume, BUT I was not ready to short yet, because I imagined all the trapped shorts from the lower high earlier, all of them nervous as cat in Dog Alley, and the chance of short squeeze was quite strong here. Price was creeping a penny at a time and not a seller in sight. TIF became its only little world apart from the market, with a lot of intraday shorts filled with hope and not much else here. Price crept to 31.63 before pulling back below the MAs, but I no longer felt there was much useful R:R left either way with this one.
Moved on to X, and you wonât believe it, but I chased the entry, shorting @ 45.18 instead of when it first came to my attention @ 45.27, pullback from a new high, covered near b/e on the pivot off trend line support for +$18.
Came back from getting some lunch, saw TIF breaking down, chased the trade and ended up stopped at b/e -$5 for commish. Yes, friends, I lost my mind today.
Saw HANS consolidating on low volume around 36.00, pointed it out to Mr. NoD (he just finished a program that signals consolidation on low volume), and mentioned that I'd like to short it at 36.00 in both accounts, but maybe should wait for more confirmation. And he said to bracket an order around the range, and I did neither, then it dropped suddenly over .20 cents and I'd learned my lesson about chasing and did not chase, and the freaking thing dropped from 36.00 to 34.99 before finding support!
Short X @ 44.79 on a pullback from bumping its head against the now falling moving average, leaving behind another lower high. Setups donât get much better than this and I got in real quick, covering @ 44.56 on the pivot just above previous support for a $110 gain.
Same time I shorted X here, ES also looked enticing for a short @ 1012.00 after a series of doji bars on low selling volume left a lower high below the 20 EMA. However, I wanted to focus on one trade at a time and X was in my sights after the run of scratch trades.
OK, learned (again *sigh*) to enter quickly without hesitation, but never chase!
Have a great weekend all!
(P/L posted next)
