+ $49
Iâm still having a terrible time overcoming price bias. Hereâs the recap of the day:
THE GOOD: I did trade 2 ES short signals today and managed the trades perfectly with a -$17.30 (1 tick) loss on each when the expected moves failed to materialize. Both signals were solid as a rock, but were definitely aggressive trades and required quick exits when price action showed rapid renewed strength. My exits were as perfect as I possibly couldâve gotten without second guessing my trades, so I was VERY pleased with that.
THE BAD: That was 2 out of about 16 solid ES signals today and I was supposed to trade ALL my signals.
THE UGLY: My first signal was an aggressive opening long @ 982.00 (my own signal), which I didnât trade because price seemed too close to major resistance (an exact repeat of last Thursdayâs wrong thoughts). Next long signal was the confirmed long @ 986.00 off the opening range bar (BigHogâs signal), which I didnât trade because then SURELY price was too high to go long. (For the record, price hit 994.00.) The third short signal after my two scratch trades occurred very soon after those trades, but my ADD self had moved on to watching stocks at that point, and I missed the move Iâd been shooting for on the previous 2 trades.
THE UGLIER: AMSC had awesome earnings and guidance and I figured the big guys would be snapping up shares and shorts would a-covering off the gap. They were my top pick for the open to the long side. I expected some pullback off the pre-open gap up, but price quickly moved up from opening 29.75 price, and I kept waiting for a pullback to enter, but by the time a pullback occurred price was already up 2.00 from the gapped open and I thought surely price was too high to go long. Well, at 36.47 price was finally too high to go long.
Also CL was on my list for the open to the short side, because earnings gave it no legs to climb in pre-market. It dropped rather quickly and I didnât chase it, though it was a great short all day.
I watched ORLY hitting highs after strong earnings and then it formed a bull flag near the HOD. The consolidation was tight as a spring and I moved in to place my buy stop @ 42.01 just above the HOD. It immediately took off without me, but after only a .09 cent move it then came back to the consolidation range area near the previous HOD. I figured it was a failed breakout and did not put on a trade. It was no such thing, and quickly regained traction and moved to 42.71 before pulling back and regrouping.
Later I saw LAZ, which had been hitting the high ticker earlier, break out of consolidation and hit a whole new set of highs. If anything, I shouldâve had LAZ on watch for the expected b/o. Either entering long at the consolidation low area or placing a buy stop above the HOD wouldâve produced a nearly 2.00 move up. Then I watched it moving up and was ready to short. I took time to make a comment or two about it in chat and I missed the short entry!
At this point I realized that the minute or two I would spend looking from chart to chart, and taking time to converse in chat was all it took for a setup to come and go without me, and with much regret I exited chat, and decided I need to focus purely on trading my signals surely and quickly.
Just to prove the point about how easily a trade slips away, I was watching ES for a short entry @ 991.75 shortly before 11:00 a.m. and my husband came in to ask a few questions and when I looked back price had dropped to 989.25, which was about the size of the midday range scalp I expected.
Now for the real kicker: Last half hour ES has been forming a bull flag near highs and I watched for a breakout. It failed to test the HOD, and technically at that point my signal said short @ 991.50, but I wanted to wait for confirmation via a break through the 20-EMA to short @ 990.25, so I decided to leave ES alone for a brief period of time becauseâ¦
...I saw TIF had formed an internal double top below the HOD and consolidated nicely, looking very ripe for an end of day short scalp. Short @ 30.02 on the move down through the 20-period MA, covered on the pivot @ 29.84 for an $84 gain. I watched for a re-shortable bounce, but it wasnât strong enough for me to feel comfortable for another trade and was happy to have taken something off the table.
I then looked at my ES chart and gasped in horror (I know you guys read this journal for the drama) as I saw price had dropped over 4 pts from my original short signal, and at that point I thought it was too low to short (âHahahahahahaha!â exclaimed the additional 4+ pts I missed out on by having that thought).
LESSON: When you have a price level at which a trade signal would be confirmed, place a couple stop orders before doing anything else. I started reading Al Brooks book last night and wow his strategies are nearly identical to mine and he advocates placing stops in advance to get into trades without missing out. I've been talking about that a lot but not doing it.
So I traded 2 out nearly 20 useful ES signals today, many of which wouldâve been small scalps, but at least 3 of which wouldâve been very fine trades. Thatâs the advantage of taking all trades presented and staying focused throughout the day, not picking and choosing, and getting distracted. For a while I will not be participating in any chat rooms, because I really need the focus.
I hope everyone got some entertainment and education off todayâs post. I tell you I feel like a dog chasing its tail sometimes, but Iâm in a better mood today because I realize that I CAN trade, thanks to hours and hours of study and screen time, and I also have strong risk management, so Iâm going to make this work, come hell or high water!
Cheers!