NoDoji's Day Trading Log
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QT, I've had a lot of trouble with that too, and have missed some fantastic breakout moves because I would see a technical footprint indicating further upside, but my opinion of price appearing to be "too high" clouded my judgment and caused me to avoid putting on the trade.
I believe this is simply a behavior related to inexperience. My son has a friend who trades Forex. The kid came over one evening, we opened a demo account for my son in Oanda, and brought up the EUR/USD chart. I looked at the chart and immediately saw a bull flag had formed after a large run up.
I, having some experience in T/A, took one look at it and said, "That's a bull flag, price should break to the upside any time now."
My son, having never seen a chart or traded in his life, saw that the price had gone up a LOT, and therefore must be "too high" and therefore had to go down.
So he did what any red-blooded 18-year-old would do: He ignored his Mom and sold short.
And was stopped out almost immediately on the breakout
Now I've moved beyond that level. I would no longer sell short on such a setup until the price action revealed a reason to. However, I still find it very difficult to go long on such a setup. A while back when HANS was trading in a range for days, testing resistance and falling back to higher support each time, I got to a day when I no longer traded resistance to the short side, because I sensed a breakout coming out of that bull flag that formed over several days. But I simply could not bring myself to place a buy stop above the 52-week high and I missed a fantastic 2.00/share breakout the next day.
When I can take ALL my setups, I will feel that I've moved to the next level, the level where a trade may "feel" uncomfortable, but it's on the right side of the market.
from Nods post.....................>> My son, having never seen a chart or traded in his life, saw that the price had gone up a LOT, and therefore must be "too high" and therefore had to go down.
So he did what any red-blooded 18-year-old would do: He ignored his Mom and sold short.
And was stopped out almost immediately on the breakout ...END...
...................
Then Nod said............> When I can take ALL my setups, I will feel that I've moved to the next level, the level where a trade may "feel" uncomfortable, but it's on the right side of the market.
.......................
Ahh yes, your son is perfectly normal 18 year old. I remember when i bought my first car, was maybe 16 and bought first car, a 1949 Oldsmobile, Rocket 88 none the less.
Did not even have a drivers license until a policemen decided different.
Point being. I looked for a bargain price and also KNEW the price was to high on the car. Got it for a lower price, felt good, surely i was smarter than the seller. We must be born with a "seek Bargain price" gene. We are attracted to "SALES", we try to "jew" down the new car salesperson, etc, etc. Get the picture? We always IMAGINE price is to high when we are the buyers in commerce. Now lets walk into the same car lot a week later and see an almost same car but price is a lot cheaper. What is our first thought? Right, we suspect something is terribly wrong with this particular car. It was in prior accident, was in a flood, something cautions are mind from the git-go.
Ok, now we are traders and are slow to realize that what worked at the car lot no longer applies. In trading price is the driver of emotions, NOT QUALITY. If the price of a stock or futs is 40 today, surely it is overbought and ready to fall back to where the price should be, thats the car lot thinking. I always asked the sales clerk at Sears if these Levi jeans will be on sale within a week or so, many KNEW if a sale was coming up and would say so. We can not do that in the mkts but thats how we think.
Now as traders, unlike at the used car lot or SEARS store when we see a price drop we ignore QUALITY and are thrilled to get a cheaper price to purchase. Does that really make sense? Who is the fool in that picture?
Price itself is meaningless in trading but yet it is everything. Try and explain that to your girlfriend and see what reaction you get.
In trading the only real value you can rely on is the internalized value of and the odds of your signals. Overbought or oversold is ok i guess if used for a specific time frame but a hinderence and down right destructive for the bigger picture. Ob/os are for range trading if used at all, ob/os are gonna fight you if expecting or looking for a breakout. The same tool can not be used for different mkt expectations.
Ok, off for the weekend.
PS: That was a rather long way of saying............there is no such thing as taking a trade when it feels uncomfortable if and when the signal is golden and with your odds. I never take uncomfortable trades, just those that i assume are correct. (but make mistakes like everyone else, )
So he did what any red-blooded 18-year-old would do: He ignored his Mom and sold short.
And was stopped out almost immediately on the breakout ...END...
...................
Then Nod said............> When I can take ALL my setups, I will feel that I've moved to the next level, the level where a trade may "feel" uncomfortable, but it's on the right side of the market.
.......................
Ahh yes, your son is perfectly normal 18 year old. I remember when i bought my first car, was maybe 16 and bought first car, a 1949 Oldsmobile, Rocket 88 none the less.
Did not even have a drivers license until a policemen decided different. Point being. I looked for a bargain price and also KNEW the price was to high on the car. Got it for a lower price, felt good, surely i was smarter than the seller. We must be born with a "seek Bargain price" gene. We are attracted to "SALES", we try to "jew" down the new car salesperson, etc, etc. Get the picture? We always IMAGINE price is to high when we are the buyers in commerce. Now lets walk into the same car lot a week later and see an almost same car but price is a lot cheaper. What is our first thought? Right, we suspect something is terribly wrong with this particular car. It was in prior accident, was in a flood, something cautions are mind from the git-go.
Ok, now we are traders and are slow to realize that what worked at the car lot no longer applies. In trading price is the driver of emotions, NOT QUALITY. If the price of a stock or futs is 40 today, surely it is overbought and ready to fall back to where the price should be, thats the car lot thinking. I always asked the sales clerk at Sears if these Levi jeans will be on sale within a week or so, many KNEW if a sale was coming up and would say so. We can not do that in the mkts but thats how we think.
Now as traders, unlike at the used car lot or SEARS store when we see a price drop we ignore QUALITY and are thrilled to get a cheaper price to purchase. Does that really make sense? Who is the fool in that picture?
Price itself is meaningless in trading but yet it is everything. Try and explain that to your girlfriend and see what reaction you get.
In trading the only real value you can rely on is the internalized value of and the odds of your signals. Overbought or oversold is ok i guess if used for a specific time frame but a hinderence and down right destructive for the bigger picture. Ob/os are for range trading if used at all, ob/os are gonna fight you if expecting or looking for a breakout. The same tool can not be used for different mkt expectations.
Ok, off for the weekend.
PS: That was a rather long way of saying............there is no such thing as taking a trade when it feels uncomfortable if and when the signal is golden and with your odds. I never take uncomfortable trades, just those that i assume are correct. (but make mistakes like everyone else,
)Quote from NoDoji:
Wait a minute, need to clear up some confusion. I was born not far from Scranton, and I studied guitar with Pat Martino in Philly,...
Awesome ND ... I used to love that guy's playing. I myself studied with Mike Stern (don't know if you'd know who that is) back in my days in Boston.
Nice thread by the way.
Cool ... I'm guessing we might have been at Berklee around the same time ('78-'81 -ish? ). I was lucky enough to squeeze in with Stern just before he left Boston to go record/tour with Miles. I used to love watching him play around town at places like Michael's and Pooh's Pub with Tiger Okoshi, etc. ... ahh the Berklee years -- fun times!
Looking forward to hearing your music on YT. I have some stuff up there that I co-wrote and produced (I'm not the artist), but it wouldn't interest a serious jazz musician.
and since you are a good sport and going "LIVE" next week in the wicked jungle i thought a little review would be helpful. You saw this before. Go for more per trade. Good trading.
http://www.traderslog.com/capturing-trend-days.htm
Cubs and Sox tied going into 9th. :eek:
You are going to enjoy trading the ES, mark my words. Prove all the naysayers all wet.
http://www.traderslog.com/capturing-trend-days.htm
Cubs and Sox tied going into 9th. :eek:
You are going to enjoy trading the ES, mark my words. Prove all the naysayers all wet.
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