NoDoji's Day Trading Log
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It looks like the AIPC was a $150k position. Holy cow. You can't blame yourself for taking profits when the market is up huge. Stocks move with the market often so getting out may have been prudent. But now the fact you would have made a lot more is making you think it was a huge mistake.
One of the things Nassim Taleb writes about in 'Fooled By Randomness' is that we always fit a perfect story onto what has happened in the past. I believe you are fitting the story that you had a certain target and the stock was _destined_ to go there. In reality, it really could have done a lot of things, many of which would have lost you money.
I'm not just saying this to make you feel better or anything - I think there's something important in it we can all learn.
One of the things Nassim Taleb writes about in 'Fooled By Randomness' is that we always fit a perfect story onto what has happened in the past. I believe you are fitting the story that you had a certain target and the stock was _destined_ to go there. In reality, it really could have done a lot of things, many of which would have lost you money.
I'm not just saying this to make you feel better or anything - I think there's something important in it we can all learn.
Ah...sound all too familiar. Wherever I put in a few days of wins and all of a sudden hit a rough patch, I begin to wonder: what if I can't put solid results together on a consistent basis? At all?
Well, in fact all you have to do, NoD is to look back at 3 months of nothing but green days and $20K 1Q09. TWENTY THOUSAND! WITH A 60K ACCOUNT!
Are you kidding me? You are a consistent trader! In reality, you are the most consistent trader on ET (that I know of and follow at least)!
Think of yourself as a professional athlete. I like ice-hockey, so let's compare you to a hockey player. A goalie comes to mind. A starting on an NHL goalie has to play up to 82 games per year (most of the time it's closer to 60, but let's leave it alone for the sake of agrument).
An NHL goalie, however great he is, can not expect to win EVERY SINGLE GAME! Sometimes the opposition is too strong and your defense makes a few mistakes. Sometimes you misjudge the angles. Sometimes you play (trade) so much, you get tired; you lose focus. Sometimes, you follow and exeptional winning streak of 5-7 games with a rough patch of 3-4 losses.
Does it matter in the end? No! What matters is that you should have a winning season. You have to make it to the playoffs (or the next level as a trader). And the most important part of it is your mental game. You can't just give up on yourself and forget your goal after a few losses. Every goalie (trader) will have periods where nothing seems to go right.
However, what separates a great goalie (trader) from the herd is their ability to pick themselves up, overcome, carry the games on their backs and emerge victorious.
You've shown the ability to win and win consistently. You've hit a rought patch. Your defense makes mistakes. You missed on a few angles and a few pucks snuck in that should not have. You've lost a few games (days) in a row.
But it only means one thing and one thing only: this is the time to elevate your game! This is the time to show that you can shine when you seem down and out! This is the time to emerge and shake off that mental decay and keep fighting.
You fought something much more dangerous and persistent in your life. You've overcome. Now you will overcome this little streak. No big deal. At all...
cae, yes it was a large position, built up over a period of days as AIPC ranged near its 52-week high. However, you can check with cor (who also watches and trades this one), he will confirm that I've said for the past 3 days that the target price was 32.00 and my husband was standing strong by that price because I told him it would at least go through that level on the way to 31.00, where it would be oversold. Problem is, when you hold a large position for a while you get antsy to take profits, especially as you said with a short position in an up market. The small bounce after the big drop seemed a perfect place to do it, because we expected to be able to short it again at overbought.
cae, you are very right, it's easy to say shoulda woulda coulda, but I have a very bad habit of not trusting my highest probability trades, and this one was among them. The best thing to have done (and we even discussed this before closing out the entire position) would be to close half the position and trail a stop on the other half.
Quote from fishing:
congrats on the great quarter!!
may i ask why would you want to try trading futures while you've been doing fine with stocks?
i'm asking this because i'm trading futures and trying to look at stocks
Thank you, fishing!
The reason I would like to trade futures and you would like to trade stocks is because the profits are always greener with the other trading instrument
Actually, I wanted to give it a go because I get easily distracted following several charts and the high/low ticker each day; the idea of trading a single instrument seems appealing to this ADD trader.
ND, do you have protection for the APIC position? If not, it is just too risky unless you have an account size ten times of that.
Talk about 'consistent trader', I think one way to improve is through education or training unless you are a genius. I am a part timer on this. I spend years in college and graduate school to get trained for an engineer career. Wonder what kind of good training is available for trading.
Talk about 'consistent trader', I think one way to improve is through education or training unless you are a genius. I am a part timer on this. I spend years in college and graduate school to get trained for an engineer career. Wonder what kind of good training is available for trading.
Hi NoDoji,
I am sorry to hear that today was a crappy day. Remember that its only a day and this one day does not define you as a trader but rather the sum of all your days. Based on that you didn't have a bad day but rather your having a good year.
I am also thinking that I should have tried a bit harder to talk to you before the open during the chat but by the time you logged in to the chat the day was about to begin and we all knew it had the potential to be a big and fast day. As it turns out it was the busiest day I ever had.
You said in the journal that you were hell bent to really charge into the trades yday and that gave me pause in thinking that was not such a good attitude with the markets.
It appears to me that you really got caught up with a stock being closed out at a price that was poor compared to what it could have been had you held longer. The one and only real question with this is did you follow your plan? did you exit as your plan dictated? did you allow emotion to change your plan? Was the reason for exiting valid?
At the time it appeared to be the right choice regardless of your plan. I would disagree with your statement that you "patiently watch the price action". This I completly disagree with for you. Sorry but your not qualified to watch price action and make buying/selling choices off of price action. I know that sounds mean and I don't intend for it to be an insult but thats what I think. I believe that for someone with only a few years trading that the market will still fool the person most of the time.
This is why we have trading plans and why its important to stick with them in the face of price action that does not appear to confirm what we expect when we enter a trade.
Backtest your plans and know your trades in what you will do so that when IF happens you do THEN. We chat about it and post about it once in a while but the leaving money on the table thought process should maybe encourage you to back test to see if your need to change your profit targets but really nothing more. You should NOT worry that you left money on the table but rather be happy that the price did move through your profit target so that you could make a gain on the trade. How much it moves after your out of the trade only matters to the extent of adjusting the rules but not adjusting the trade.
Your trades (or non trades)
FAZ, good work
ORLY, put the rules in writting for a check off list until you can do it my memory
FAZ, should you have moved the stop because of your plan? if so good work, if you just watched the price action and decided to change the plan then you know how I feel about that
MFE, no big deal. There are more trades to get. Do NOT go into a trade that you do not feel comfortable with. Its hard enough to be in a trade that you do feel good about entering. Let it go and I say good work for not taking it.
MFE, firstly I disagree that a stock can be both overbought and oversold in the same day. That doesnt mean I am right and your wrong but just my opinion and its based on how I trade not on how anyone else trades. Again with price action changing the plan
FAZ, good work. trade didnt work out but your followed your plan. We are not a trade but rather the sum of all of them. Sometimes you get delt 20 and the dealer makes 21.
SBAC, good work for not entering. When you start to trade on hunches or what feels right you end up in a trade that can feel wrong real fast.
FAZ, follow the plan and NO ONE knows for sure what a stock is going to do in regards of your plan. Remember you have a plan that gives you an edge. Dont let that edge go when you have it.
FAZ, good work, dont trade unless your 100% as it takes all that and sometimes more to be smarter than the counterparty.
If you think I am harsh here you wouldn't want to be my seven year old tonight who had me help him with his spelling words after mom said she was done as he was screwing around to much.....LOL
Seriously, I hope this is of some value and that you know I am not trying to be 'smart' but rather trying to help you avoid the pitfalls that I have found myself in way too many times to count.
Have a great day trading Friday
RW
Hi NoDoji,
I wanted to put this in its own post as I feel its VERY important and should be standing out there on its own.
It is NOT important to be a consistent trader. You should NOT focus on being consistent.
Let me repeat that: DO NOT TRY TO BE CONSISTENT !!!
What you do WANT is to be profitable and to maximize your profit. Being consistent FEELS good but like so many things in trading what feels right and what brings in gains are direct opposites.
decide if you want to feel good or if you want to make money as you can not have both.
It FEELS good to take quick profits so you dont lose them and to let losers run so you can get your money back. We all know how that works out.
The same can be said with a desire to be consistent. It will lead you down a path of lower yearly profits.
Again, Best to you Nodoji and your progress
RW
Bob, thanks for taking the time for all your input. You are right, I really did get caught up in the AIPC trade because of the sheer amount of the lost profits. When we started into this trade, I was very firm about the target price. I chose 32 as an extremely conservative target on the way to a higher support level in the 30-31 range. I pointed out everything in the chart to my husband and he, too, agreed that was a a very "safe" initial target point. When the trade moved against us and back in our favor several times over the past few days, we held steady on that target. Then when it actually made a significant move in our favor, we changed the plan for no strong reason other than impatience and assumption.
I really think that one threw me off mentally for the rest of the day and I should've just called it a day at that point.
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