(Hermit, I apologize in advance for this disappointing post, but remember an unrealized loss is still a loss!)
+$336
Yesterdayâs action left ORLYâs chart looking very bad for a short position thatâs already at a loss (full bullish engulfing pattern, higher low, and poised to test highs). This morning they got upgraded by an analyst, which often means nothing, but I am ready to exit at any sign of exuberance. Fortunately, it never tested highs, even after the fed rally, leaving the day with a lower high in an up market. So this places me on orange alert for the trade, down from red alert at the top of the fed rally.
Short HANS @ 36.81, overbought pull back from HOD, small position because I was picking a top, rather than a failure to make a new high. It dropped from the get-go and I trailed a stop to 36.55, exiting @ 36.49 when it pivoted off oversold, for a clean $164 gain.
Short HANS @ 36.72 overbought pull back from failure to make a new high. It languished in consolidation forever, then finally broke down nicely against the market, where I covered oversold near previous support @ 36.33 for a $196 gain. I predicted it would test previous support at 36.23 and if that broke down, the LOD was next in line. However, because I had a small position I covered all of it instead of a) leaving my trailing stop in place, or b) covering partial. It broke down hugely, and I was left hammering head against desk.
Nice moves after fed. I greedily expected HANS @ 36.80 and missed a beautiful short. In fact everything was a beautiful long and a beautiful short after that, but I stepped aside and sat on my hands.
End of day purchased a FAZ APR $30 call. Total risk should FAZ never manage any retracement whatsoever is $600. I can live with that, especially considering the possible reward between now and April.
