NoDoji's Day Trading Log
- Thread starter NoDoji
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Ok, to use the ORB one must understand it is just a way to get started for the day. It is mechanical entry more than anything else because the exits can be flexed. The purpose of the mechanical entry is to eliminate any "BIAS or pre-conceived notion" of the direction based on overnight action or what some guru said.
Upon the previous days close, i am done with the mkt as far as being concerned where price goes. I am not an analyst but i do casually pay attention to the macro picture of economics. The macro picture is meaningless for a daytrader..........BUT, yes the econ reports matter because they can change the EXPECTATIONS of the longer term players. Thus it becomes obvious that the longer term players have an unintended consequence on the shorter time frames when they modify their positions relative to the latest data. The position traders (funds etc) have STOPS placed in the mkt based on what their thinking was at the time. As new data is released the institutional players might adjust or defend their positions...............this is where the SUPPORT & RESIST comes into play for the daytraders. We can after experience, detect where the pain threshold probably is which is also the same point where others will be enticed to enter. Price itself is meaningless until it hits a nerve............. :eek: Certain spots attract a lot of attention and those spots are what we seek.
Nod said price might go 6 or 8 ticks and she might look to go short there. That is a plan, all good.
I do it different, i take the trade and assume continuation. Ok, lets say i am 6 or 8 ticks ahead and know that is a buffer for a couple small losers if we do indeed go to a whipsaw day. I have a choice at that instant, book a few ticks as insurance against some upcoming whipsaws and risk price continuing on without me. That is always subjective. Early on i am willing to hang on for more but watch momentum as my quide. Knowing full well 6 ticks can cover a couple small losers and or scratches it is not a bad idea to book it with the fullest intention to get back in based on price. Early on, price can change direction in a flash as it seems someone is defending a position, etc, etc. So a fast limber finger on the mouse is needed for sure.
No one can foretell a whippy day, lets just say some days are better than others. More often than not it is advisable to just play the lines and above the line you STAY long...............forget the in between the lines and below the line STAY short. After the first hour go into support and resist mode.
A couple small losers can be reversed if the trader keeps their head on during a whipsaw day. I back off on entry after a couple whipsaws...........at that point i hope for a narrow range until the first hour passes. Always subjective, like women, a pretty face does not mean she did not leave the broom outside the dancehall. BE careful out there. :eek:
+$352
Didn't even wait for the ORB to set up; the market looked so weak in pre-market action that I shorted ES @ 1096.00 just before the open with price very near the uppermost channel line; covered @ 1089.50 pivot off deep lower channel line overshoot for +$320.20.
Short JPM @ 41.14 overbought, pullback from HOD after a 3rd push up from the pivot low. Covered @ 40.97 oversold for +$32. Stepped out for short while and came back to see that I missed a confirmed short off the lower high.
One of the most difficult things I had to learn in counter-trend trading is to wait patiently for a solid setup. If itching to pick a top or bottom, itâs better to wait for a channel overshoot rather than jumping the gun. If you miss a trade, no problem; another one will come along shortly. If I catch a reversal move off an extreme, I look to take profits at the opposite stochastic end of the spectrum, and expect (in most cases) an attempt to re-test the extreme. A failure of this test, or a near double top/double bottom is then a confirmed counter-trend trade and stands a good chance of 2â3 pushes into the new trend.
I realized after much study, sim trading, live trading, hair-pulling and head-against-desk-ing, that if patience in waiting for only the very best setups results in only 1 or 2 trades a day, who cares? Those 1 or 2 trades will be profitable meaty trades which rarely fail and allow for survivable tight risk management if they do. Getting into lukewarm trades means you have to use wide stops to survive, or average down, or get stopped out and watch the trade go your way, then chase and get stopped out against. Itâs not worth it.
Didn't even wait for the ORB to set up; the market looked so weak in pre-market action that I shorted ES @ 1096.00 just before the open with price very near the uppermost channel line; covered @ 1089.50 pivot off deep lower channel line overshoot for +$320.20.
Short JPM @ 41.14 overbought, pullback from HOD after a 3rd push up from the pivot low. Covered @ 40.97 oversold for +$32. Stepped out for short while and came back to see that I missed a confirmed short off the lower high.
One of the most difficult things I had to learn in counter-trend trading is to wait patiently for a solid setup. If itching to pick a top or bottom, itâs better to wait for a channel overshoot rather than jumping the gun. If you miss a trade, no problem; another one will come along shortly. If I catch a reversal move off an extreme, I look to take profits at the opposite stochastic end of the spectrum, and expect (in most cases) an attempt to re-test the extreme. A failure of this test, or a near double top/double bottom is then a confirmed counter-trend trade and stands a good chance of 2â3 pushes into the new trend.
I realized after much study, sim trading, live trading, hair-pulling and head-against-desk-ing, that if patience in waiting for only the very best setups results in only 1 or 2 trades a day, who cares? Those 1 or 2 trades will be profitable meaty trades which rarely fail and allow for survivable tight risk management if they do. Getting into lukewarm trades means you have to use wide stops to survive, or average down, or get stopped out and watch the trade go your way, then chase and get stopped out against. Itâs not worth it.
NoDoji,
Just curious. What is your typical initial risk for your index trades? I know it can vary from trade to trade and setup to setup, but I was wondering if you could ballpark it for me. I have not been following your journal with any regularity, so forgive me if the answer to my question is evident in your thread.
Also, have you decided whether you will be scaling out of your trades, or have you been discouraged from doing so by an eminent poster in this thread? Again, just curious.
Just curious. What is your typical initial risk for your index trades? I know it can vary from trade to trade and setup to setup, but I was wondering if you could ballpark it for me. I have not been following your journal with any regularity, so forgive me if the answer to my question is evident in your thread.
Also, have you decided whether you will be scaling out of your trades, or have you been discouraged from doing so by an eminent poster in this thread? Again, just curious.
My max risk per trade is $500 and that would only be contemplated under very unique and rare conditions.
If it's a lukewarm setup (and as you can tell from my post earlier today I'm doing my best to avoid those) my stop is 1 pt.
For a very strong setup I usually put in a 5 pt stop initially and move to b/e when the trade moves 6 ticks in my favor.
I'm trading 1 car mainly so all in/all out, but I'm sim trading a lot of scaling strategies that produce very nice profits despite occasionally taking a bit more heat than I generally do in my live account.
I'm MAINLY a counter-trend trader, and so scaling into a "loser" is a strong sim trade tactic for me when an extreme is reached. The success I've had is phenomenal, but I have an irrational fear that if I start trading this tactic regularly in my live account it will suddenly slam my face into the sidewalk. Here's why: If I know my max loss in advance and adhere to it, then no problem, right? But when something is successful 90% of the time and then it suddenly violates the pattern, it's tempting to modify the plan. I've done this in sim but with an enormous sim account you can suddenly make leverage your "edge". I don't ever want to start doing that live.
1. Know thyself.
2. To thine own self be true.
Hey NoDoji, so what prevents you from putting more ES trades on later during the day? Did you watch the market the whole day and decided there was no good setup? Or were you satisfied with the early profit and don't want to risk giving any back?
Asking as the day turns out to be quite choppy. Does market have a tell for chopping that you have identified?
thanks..
Asking as the day turns out to be quite choppy. Does market have a tell for chopping that you have identified?
thanks..
Quote from NoDoji:
Hey, I came really close to ES-335 today. I have one of those, blonde like me. Since I added the 2.0 Keltners and now have 5 lines across the screen it does look a lot like my ES 335...maybe that's why I like them.
Nice. That's similar to the one Lennon used for awhile, is it not? ... or maybe his was a Gretsch, I can't quite remember.
I've got a weird thing that's the body of a 335 but without f-holes, called an ES-Artist ('81). Kinda sounds like crap ... lol. But when I was 9 my uncle lent me his '52 single pickup ES-175 for about 12 years. Wish I still had that one ...
Apologies for veering your thread off track.
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