Quote from RichardRimes:
Hi NoDoji..do you see a potential H&S in the daily SPX? thanks
Definitely a lot of potential. Friday's action displayed no conviction. The trend is still the trend followers' friend and some of the big players have stated they will continue to buy every dip, but bull markets don't pull much farther from the 200-day MA than this last run to October highs has. The pressure after a run like this one is to retest the 200 (which brings us back to the 990 zone) and IMHO the smart money will be selling into any strong retest of highs and this is why I think so: (keep in mind that I'm very NEW to the market, but a study of trends and human psychology is something even a noob can do).
Earnings season is drawing to a close now, and the market is forward looking. We had some good news on the retail front, but this is retail's big season with back-to-school and major shopping holidays, so a bull market expects good or better and expectations were met.
Once the holiday season passes, what's to look forward to? What will drive growth? Remember, the last bull market that topped out in October 2007 was a credit and real estate fueled BUBBLE.
I'm looking toward swing trades to the short side to take advantage of what I believe will be a retest of that 990 zone over the next 2-3 months. I'm still weighing the advantages of ES vs. SPY options to carry this out.
I invite additional input from the seasoned players who've traded and invested through similar market environments in the past. Day trading, we can trade anything that moves, but for a change I would like to take advantage of larger moves over time via some swing trades. I always talk about it then fail to go for it.
AMT started a thread on 10/12 (which was hugely ridiculed) stating that the market was offering a longer term play gift. With the ES approaching 1080, he was suggesting scaling into a longer term short position to retest the trend line. It was a very high probability play that, for the sake of example assuming you scaled in with 3 legs (around the 1080, 1090, and 1100 zones), provided a 50-60 pt return on that pullback.
I'm very interested in taking advantage of swing trades like this, and I believe the market is setting up nicely once again and this time for a potentially greater move to the downside.