NoDoji's Day Trading Log
- Thread starter NoDoji
- Start date
- Status
Doing a scratch trade is not about if the trade will work out or not. Doing a scratch is what you do at that "moment".
EXAMPLE: Lets say you just witnessed price pop from a report coming out and you watch price set a new high for the intraday and then come back to where price was before the report but holds for a bit.................that might get you to assume price will go back up as the bears are not selling more. You go LONG, you watch, you take a drink of coffee, price bounces around for a minute or so and shows a 3 tick loss, back to even, shows another 3 tick loss, back to even,..............in your mind you know it is going to jam either way..............so the odds of an continuation up have changed...............so you scratch it. On some trades we have better odds if they work and they WORK FAST. Scratching a trade sure beats a loss.
One part of trading that can never be learned except from actual experience is the "ART" part of trading.
Dogs sniff fire hydrants before deciding to claim that hydrant as part of their territory with a little splash. Traders need to be picky also.
EXAMPLE: Lets say you just witnessed price pop from a report coming out and you watch price set a new high for the intraday and then come back to where price was before the report but holds for a bit.................that might get you to assume price will go back up as the bears are not selling more. You go LONG, you watch, you take a drink of coffee, price bounces around for a minute or so and shows a 3 tick loss, back to even, shows another 3 tick loss, back to even,..............in your mind you know it is going to jam either way..............so the odds of an continuation up have changed...............so you scratch it. On some trades we have better odds if they work and they WORK FAST. Scratching a trade sure beats a loss.
One part of trading that can never be learned except from actual experience is the "ART" part of trading.
Dogs sniff fire hydrants before deciding to claim that hydrant as part of their territory with a little splash. Traders need to be picky also.
there is a barrier between a scratch and a true trade. the only problem is a trader thinks his capital as money (that is life threatening)
a peferect trade is: execute it flawlessly whether it is a loser or winner. a perfect trade does not mean it is a winner. if you are able to cut loss accordingly, I will call it a peferect trade too. you should say to yourself: a trade cut losss acorrdingly is still a winner. but most people here is under funded (limited fund), they can not think $300 loss as nothing, even $10.
a scratch is often created by " getting out too early or cut profit short", after you got out, you feel it is pre-mature, you charged into it again. this kind of experience every trader has it. since every trader has losers, those past losers will greatly impact your objectiveness, that is why you seize the tiny profit and run (operate of past experience), but immeadiately you found you are right, but you did not make the money.
the only way is: do less, do more study, only take highly odd trade. you can not run trading as casino bussiness since your capital is very limited, several clients toke out some profitable bets and you are dead
a peferect trade is: execute it flawlessly whether it is a loser or winner. a perfect trade does not mean it is a winner. if you are able to cut loss accordingly, I will call it a peferect trade too. you should say to yourself: a trade cut losss acorrdingly is still a winner. but most people here is under funded (limited fund), they can not think $300 loss as nothing, even $10.
a scratch is often created by " getting out too early or cut profit short", after you got out, you feel it is pre-mature, you charged into it again. this kind of experience every trader has it. since every trader has losers, those past losers will greatly impact your objectiveness, that is why you seize the tiny profit and run (operate of past experience), but immeadiately you found you are right, but you did not make the money.
the only way is: do less, do more study, only take highly odd trade. you can not run trading as casino bussiness since your capital is very limited, several clients toke out some profitable bets and you are dead
I do not think trading is an art.
trading is a mental game. Noda can be a trading master in his paper account, but why she still struggle in her real account?
in paper account, she can take out as much money as she wants, but in her own account, while take out a couple hudreds is a task like rollling rock towrad the mountain top?
the only differenc here is the view toward your own money
trading is a mental game. Noda can be a trading master in his paper account, but why she still struggle in her real account?
in paper account, she can take out as much money as she wants, but in her own account, while take out a couple hudreds is a task like rollling rock towrad the mountain top?
the only differenc here is the view toward your own money
Today my goal was to focus on one thing without distraction and wow did that strategy pay off.
I strictly traded ES in sim today.
After the open I saw more than anything else a âlack of weaknessâ and Hog taught me that if the market doesnât go one way, it will tend to go the other way, so I expected some bullishness to a) test the 20 EMA on the daily chart and b) test yesterdayâs resistance levels of 1058-1059.
Traded the ORB +6 to the long side @ 1054.25 and targeted 1058.00 R, sat on my hands even when the little pause in the action scared me (so easy to do in sim though). Target hit for nearly 4 pts!
Placed buy stop order @ 1058.75 and caught the next b/o, bailed @ 1060.00 when the action paused.
The big dogs sniffed around 1062.00 for what seemed like an eternity and I decided that a third push up would be possible but probably not a big one and Iâd use an averaging counter-trend strategy:
Short @ 1061.25, a little more sniffing of 1062, then a nice down bar and I covered @ 1059.25 when buyers came in because I was top picking in an uptrend here. Now IF price had indeed pushed to a new high I was prepared to double down @ 1065.00 for a 1063.00 avg, stop @ 1066.00 (a bit above my $250 max loss per trade, but four pushes up without a pullback is rare so I felt it was high probability). My initial target in that scenario wouldâve been the upper channel line around 1060.00, so an even R:R in that situation.
Shorted again @ 1059.50 pullback from a lower high, target @ the lower channel line, covered there @ 1057.50. That move had another 1.75 handles in it because it ended up overshooting the lower channel line a bit, but I was a little nervous about letting things run too long because price was staying around the range boundaries quite well.
Took a long break midday because this is never a good time for me to trade.
Short @ 1062.50 pullback from a new high with channel line overshoot, but not by much. Covered @ 1058.75 pivot from just below the lower channel line. ES was pretty much obeying the channels today and wasnât overshooting the lower line much, so I wasnât as worried about leaving profits on the table at this point in the day.
Short @ 1059.50 pullback from a 3rd failure to break through the 20 EMA, tight stop @ 1060.75 just above the wicks of the failures because this was, as Al Brooks terms it, a barb wire zone. Stopped out. Al Brooks also says to avoid trading barb wire. I need to listen to that guy...
Short @ 1062.50 pullback from a double top, stop just above the HOD @ 1063.25. Stopped out. I was wishing Iâd taken the quick 1.25 pt profit that showed the minute I entered this trade!
Short again @ 1063.00, failed b/o after that test of the HOD took me out, covered @ 1061.25 as soon as price hesitated at the 20 EMA. Wasnât about to let a winner turn into a loser again!
After today, I feel like Iâm actually learning something. I was focused and patient and used a variety of strategies to my benefit. Iâm way more comfortable with counter-trend positions off channel line overshoots, but the breakouts worked very well today in the direction of market sentiment.
I strictly traded ES in sim today.
After the open I saw more than anything else a âlack of weaknessâ and Hog taught me that if the market doesnât go one way, it will tend to go the other way, so I expected some bullishness to a) test the 20 EMA on the daily chart and b) test yesterdayâs resistance levels of 1058-1059.
Traded the ORB +6 to the long side @ 1054.25 and targeted 1058.00 R, sat on my hands even when the little pause in the action scared me (so easy to do in sim though). Target hit for nearly 4 pts!
Placed buy stop order @ 1058.75 and caught the next b/o, bailed @ 1060.00 when the action paused.
The big dogs sniffed around 1062.00 for what seemed like an eternity and I decided that a third push up would be possible but probably not a big one and Iâd use an averaging counter-trend strategy:
Short @ 1061.25, a little more sniffing of 1062, then a nice down bar and I covered @ 1059.25 when buyers came in because I was top picking in an uptrend here. Now IF price had indeed pushed to a new high I was prepared to double down @ 1065.00 for a 1063.00 avg, stop @ 1066.00 (a bit above my $250 max loss per trade, but four pushes up without a pullback is rare so I felt it was high probability). My initial target in that scenario wouldâve been the upper channel line around 1060.00, so an even R:R in that situation.
Shorted again @ 1059.50 pullback from a lower high, target @ the lower channel line, covered there @ 1057.50. That move had another 1.75 handles in it because it ended up overshooting the lower channel line a bit, but I was a little nervous about letting things run too long because price was staying around the range boundaries quite well.
Took a long break midday because this is never a good time for me to trade.
Short @ 1062.50 pullback from a new high with channel line overshoot, but not by much. Covered @ 1058.75 pivot from just below the lower channel line. ES was pretty much obeying the channels today and wasnât overshooting the lower line much, so I wasnât as worried about leaving profits on the table at this point in the day.
Short @ 1059.50 pullback from a 3rd failure to break through the 20 EMA, tight stop @ 1060.75 just above the wicks of the failures because this was, as Al Brooks terms it, a barb wire zone. Stopped out. Al Brooks also says to avoid trading barb wire. I need to listen to that guy...
Short @ 1062.50 pullback from a double top, stop just above the HOD @ 1063.25. Stopped out. I was wishing Iâd taken the quick 1.25 pt profit that showed the minute I entered this trade!
Short again @ 1063.00, failed b/o after that test of the HOD took me out, covered @ 1061.25 as soon as price hesitated at the 20 EMA. Wasnât about to let a winner turn into a loser again!
After today, I feel like Iâm actually learning something. I was focused and patient and used a variety of strategies to my benefit. Iâm way more comfortable with counter-trend positions off channel line overshoots, but the breakouts worked very well today in the direction of market sentiment.
test, test
http://us.burberry.com/product/index.jsp?productId=3555428&cp=3146777.3771330.3771334
The test worked. The purpose of that test was to show that some classics do not change. Same for trading some signals, the good stuff lasts and lasts without Yes, we adjust to what the mkt offers us each day but we ALWAYS keep the BASICS in mind.
That trench coat is great for flashing the chicks :eek: I have one in excellent condition that i bought about 25 years ago at Marshall Fields at the Oakbrook mall by Chicago,Today it costs $1895.00 + shipping, i paid $700+ in 1985 i think. The point is some things of quality last.........same for trading........quality signals make money. Fads change, how to make money does not change.
Nod, congrats, you did great today.
Be back with a couple comments in a few.
PS: My trench still fits and looks brand new.
http://us.burberry.com/product/index.jsp?productId=3555428&cp=3146777.3771330.3771334
The test worked. The purpose of that test was to show that some classics do not change. Same for trading some signals, the good stuff lasts and lasts without Yes, we adjust to what the mkt offers us each day but we ALWAYS keep the BASICS in mind.
That trench coat is great for flashing the chicks :eek: I have one in excellent condition that i bought about 25 years ago at Marshall Fields at the Oakbrook mall by Chicago,Today it costs $1895.00 + shipping, i paid $700+ in 1985 i think. The point is some things of quality last.........same for trading........quality signals make money. Fads change, how to make money does not change.
Nod, congrats, you did great today.
Be back with a couple comments in a few.
PS: My trench still fits and looks brand new.
Nod, a review of +6/-6 Long or short lines.
Let the NYSE open at 0930est and the day starts for ES trading also. On the 5 minute ES you wait 5 minutes (or however long you prefer to wait) I wait to the 0935 bar to start and at the opening tick of that 0935 bar you plot a horizontal line. At +6 ticks above that first line you plot another horizontal line, thats your LONG bias line. At -6 ticks below the 0935 line (12 ticks below the +6 line) you draw another horizontal line for your SHORT bias line. Todays lines were ..0935 line at 1050.25, +6 was at 1051.75, -6 line was at 1048.75. Notice 3 handles between the +6/-6 lines that have no bias.........that is a DEAD ZONE where no trades are taken. The purpose of the dead zone is to avoid overtrading with a whipsaw opening mkt. We want price to take off instead of tap dancing around and chopping us to bits, thus we have a dead zone to control our emotions. After a couple, few bars cheating is allowed to enter within that zone but that depends entirely how you read the action.
On narrow small range whipsaw mornings a trader can drop the +6/-6 lines and just wait until 1030 and take a breakout of the 1st hours range. You want in on the days INITIAL 'RUN". Review a bunch of ES intraday charts and you will see where the odds say early in the day either the days high or low will be printed EARLY. I am talking ONLY the NYSE and pit open time frame, intraday, do not include overnight globex in ES. Todays intraday low was printed on the 0935 bar and tested on the 0940 bar......all up and away after that, But we did not know it then......thats why we do not want a bias. Yesterday the initial low at 0940 led to a 9 3/4 handle runup to 1057.50 from the then low of 1047.75, the afternoon swings were because of it was a fed day, on MOST days all the economic reports come out in the early part of the day. Many important econ reports come out at 0830est before the regular trading hours but when regular intraday starts the desks are busy so i still usually wait until all the big dogs are at their desks and send the night shift home.
On Tuesday the low was printed on the 0930 bar at 1030.75. On Monday the high was printed at 1035 bar. Last friday the high was printed at 0940 bar at 1061.50 and then fell all day long. You get the picture...................EARLY MATTERS
A suggestion: Pay attention to 50% retraces after you see any run and price backs off. Think continuation instead of a reversal........led that sink in. Review end of day 5 min charts and see how retraces work on many previous runs . Think "HOOKS" as signals for a continuation. Pay attention to the days pivot points as TARGETS. Todays pivot was at 1048.75, the intraday low was at 1049.50, close enough. Support 1 was at 1039.00, that was overnight low. Resist 1 was at 1056.75, that was area where the first pop stalled before continuating on up to that 1062 area, the days high was 1064.00, resist 2 was at 1066.50 area. Close but no cigar. When you see price get above or below a pivot area kind of assume the next level is on their minds unless it retreats back.
Are you sure maybe pivots might work better than channel lines as boundaries? THINK continuation, not fades. Try it.
PS: Trader david, there is ART in any profession, the difference between winning and losing is between the ears, mental is an artform, not science. Discipline is mechanical , intuitive trading is an internalized work of art displayed on the bottom line. Acting is an artform, some have it and some do not. IQ is mental, but many mental idiots in this world. A line from a movie: The world would be a great place is there were no humans. Think about that, the earth was doing fine before man got out of control.
No base ball tonight......... DA Yanks did DA job
Let the NYSE open at 0930est and the day starts for ES trading also. On the 5 minute ES you wait 5 minutes (or however long you prefer to wait) I wait to the 0935 bar to start and at the opening tick of that 0935 bar you plot a horizontal line. At +6 ticks above that first line you plot another horizontal line, thats your LONG bias line. At -6 ticks below the 0935 line (12 ticks below the +6 line) you draw another horizontal line for your SHORT bias line. Todays lines were ..0935 line at 1050.25, +6 was at 1051.75, -6 line was at 1048.75. Notice 3 handles between the +6/-6 lines that have no bias.........that is a DEAD ZONE where no trades are taken. The purpose of the dead zone is to avoid overtrading with a whipsaw opening mkt. We want price to take off instead of tap dancing around and chopping us to bits, thus we have a dead zone to control our emotions. After a couple, few bars cheating is allowed to enter within that zone but that depends entirely how you read the action.
On narrow small range whipsaw mornings a trader can drop the +6/-6 lines and just wait until 1030 and take a breakout of the 1st hours range. You want in on the days INITIAL 'RUN". Review a bunch of ES intraday charts and you will see where the odds say early in the day either the days high or low will be printed EARLY. I am talking ONLY the NYSE and pit open time frame, intraday, do not include overnight globex in ES. Todays intraday low was printed on the 0935 bar and tested on the 0940 bar......all up and away after that, But we did not know it then......thats why we do not want a bias. Yesterday the initial low at 0940 led to a 9 3/4 handle runup to 1057.50 from the then low of 1047.75, the afternoon swings were because of it was a fed day, on MOST days all the economic reports come out in the early part of the day. Many important econ reports come out at 0830est before the regular trading hours but when regular intraday starts the desks are busy so i still usually wait until all the big dogs are at their desks and send the night shift home.
On Tuesday the low was printed on the 0930 bar at 1030.75. On Monday the high was printed at 1035 bar. Last friday the high was printed at 0940 bar at 1061.50 and then fell all day long. You get the picture...................EARLY MATTERS
A suggestion: Pay attention to 50% retraces after you see any run and price backs off. Think continuation instead of a reversal........led that sink in. Review end of day 5 min charts and see how retraces work on many previous runs . Think "HOOKS" as signals for a continuation. Pay attention to the days pivot points as TARGETS. Todays pivot was at 1048.75, the intraday low was at 1049.50, close enough. Support 1 was at 1039.00, that was overnight low. Resist 1 was at 1056.75, that was area where the first pop stalled before continuating on up to that 1062 area, the days high was 1064.00, resist 2 was at 1066.50 area. Close but no cigar. When you see price get above or below a pivot area kind of assume the next level is on their minds unless it retreats back.
Are you sure maybe pivots might work better than channel lines as boundaries? THINK continuation, not fades. Try it.
PS: Trader david, there is ART in any profession, the difference between winning and losing is between the ears, mental is an artform, not science. Discipline is mechanical , intuitive trading is an internalized work of art displayed on the bottom line. Acting is an artform, some have it and some do not. IQ is mental, but many mental idiots in this world. A line from a movie: The world would be a great place is there were no humans. Think about that, the earth was doing fine before man got out of control.
No base ball tonight......... DA Yanks did DA job
I understand the strategy well, but for some reason I had the +6/-6 pegged at a different price level (though it still worked out great). My IB charts don't show the 5-min time increments so I have to calculate the bar I'm on by the whole hour and I probably looked at the wrong bar.
This was the trade where I saw the HOOK. I shook my head and thought "Damn, I wish I took my 1.25 pt profit a few minutes ago!" But that was "after the fact" thinking. I knew I was going to be stopped out of that trade when I saw the hook, but my stop was very tight, and it was so late in the day and the market had staged a nice gain on the day that I figured when the new high was only a few ticks above the previous high, a late day pullback was likely at that point and I shorted again. These late day trades were too much like work! I love the first 2 hours; it seems the the rest of the day I churn.
Spent another day in sim to confirm my arsenal of tactics.
With the time change I go to the gym pre-market now. I forgot about the job number news, wouldâve liked to play that. By the time I got to my desk ES had already had a good time, but appeared to be forming a small continuation pennant after putting in a low, so I shorted @ 1056.50, but it quickly found support and I was stopped out for a tick.
With a bullish support level established on bad news, I decided to wait for the open to trade further.
The ORB play looked solid because the opening 5-min bar was in a narrow range and nearly a pure doji, indicating the crowd was waiting for direction from the head bull or head bear and would likely run with the break. Took +6 long @ 1060.25, out @ 1066.25, pullback from upper channel line overshoot.
Short @ 1067.75, pullback from upper channel line overshoot that tested the pre-market high. Covered @ 1060.00 pivot from lower channel line overshoot.
Spent much of the day after that intently studying tick-by-tick price action from one swing to the next to get a feel for when to move stops and letting profits run instead of getting shaken out too easily.
Late day triple failure to break out to test the previous resistance (which sold off hard), invited me to short @ 1065.75. Covered @ 1063.75 pivot from below the lower channel. There was actually a good bit of downside left as price overshot the channel line another 2 pts when the consumer credit numbers came out.
Short @ 1063.75 on pullback from the now-falling 20 EMA. Since the market held its own today against the poor job numbers, I placed a tight stop @ 1064.75, which was a tick above the shooting star from the EMA. Price tested and fell back from 1 tick away, then returned to sniff again from a higher low, then a 3rd time, so the trade wasnât looking so good at that point, and indeed it was stopped out.
Short @ 1065.25 pullback from slight overshoot of the upper channel line. Again, placed a tight stop @ 1066.50 just above the high of the shooting star. Stopped out.
Couldâve (as seems to be the case quite often), taken the day off after the morning trading. The afternoon was just chop-n-churn.
Have a great weekend all!
With the time change I go to the gym pre-market now. I forgot about the job number news, wouldâve liked to play that. By the time I got to my desk ES had already had a good time, but appeared to be forming a small continuation pennant after putting in a low, so I shorted @ 1056.50, but it quickly found support and I was stopped out for a tick.
With a bullish support level established on bad news, I decided to wait for the open to trade further.
The ORB play looked solid because the opening 5-min bar was in a narrow range and nearly a pure doji, indicating the crowd was waiting for direction from the head bull or head bear and would likely run with the break. Took +6 long @ 1060.25, out @ 1066.25, pullback from upper channel line overshoot.
Short @ 1067.75, pullback from upper channel line overshoot that tested the pre-market high. Covered @ 1060.00 pivot from lower channel line overshoot.
Spent much of the day after that intently studying tick-by-tick price action from one swing to the next to get a feel for when to move stops and letting profits run instead of getting shaken out too easily.
Late day triple failure to break out to test the previous resistance (which sold off hard), invited me to short @ 1065.75. Covered @ 1063.75 pivot from below the lower channel. There was actually a good bit of downside left as price overshot the channel line another 2 pts when the consumer credit numbers came out.
Short @ 1063.75 on pullback from the now-falling 20 EMA. Since the market held its own today against the poor job numbers, I placed a tight stop @ 1064.75, which was a tick above the shooting star from the EMA. Price tested and fell back from 1 tick away, then returned to sniff again from a higher low, then a 3rd time, so the trade wasnât looking so good at that point, and indeed it was stopped out.
Short @ 1065.25 pullback from slight overshoot of the upper channel line. Again, placed a tight stop @ 1066.50 just above the high of the shooting star. Stopped out.
Couldâve (as seems to be the case quite often), taken the day off after the morning trading. The afternoon was just chop-n-churn.
Have a great weekend all!
- Status