NoDoji...

[StarDust9182]

Quote from NoDoji:

Honestly, at the time I place an order I quite often feel like the trade could never work .....

There is an adage on the street something like: the harder it is to take a trade by your rules, the more likely it is a winner.

The concept principle is that the masses can't be in at a turn and the longer it takes to be certain, the higher the cost of entry.

So you are right on the money ( so to speak!)

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from StarDust9182:

. . . the longer it takes to be certain, the higher the cost of entry.

Mamis referred to this as information risk v price risk.

 

[MarketAddict]

Quote from austinp:

Years ago. CL daily ranges used to be 200+ to 300+ cents wide on a regular basis... with occasional ranges of 500 to 1,000 cents inside 24-hours.

Now look at the average daily ranges for past year or more. 200 cents is uncommon, 100+ cents common and less than 100 cents overall quite common.

So now you have all players stacking orders inside fewer and tighter congestion zones. Of course a majority of stops are clustered in obvious places... as CL stays pinned inside a 30-cent range for three hours on the clock, where else are trader's able to position?

It is the lack of historical liquidity that causes narrowed intraday ranges which causes chop-congest and explode price behavior. Nobody is purposely gunning for stops per se, any more than predatory HFTs have always been written to clear x-volume thru the ladder and then v-turn reverse the opposite way again.

Go back and look at 5min CL charts from 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and compare those daily ranges & swings to what you see in 2013. That'll explain everything to ya, visually

CL is chopping? Oh really? I have seen nothing but trends lately(all month).. Have you ever traded the es? Now that's chop..

 

[Visaria]

Depends on what TIMEFRAME you are looking in...

 

[hafez50]

no doji you seem to be a great teacher and writer and people like you but i was looking threw your notes and i don't see were you called out one single trade real time or even said i'll buy this if it get here or sell this if it gets there.Since you seem so confident in your methods why not start calling out some real time trades so we can see real time how all these ways of trading work.about 15 yrs ago i knew a guy who was a charting genius. he showed me 100 charts and patterns and how they were 90% accurate and i was so impressed as it was like magic.then one day i covered up the second 1/2 of the days graph and i said tell me what happens the rest of the day since you're a charting genius. he said he can't tell me. i said on those other 100 you were unbelievable. the moral of the story is he was great with graphs after the fact pointing to this happened and that happened just as his charts said it would but when it was realtime he couldn't do it. Maybe i'm wrong and you do call things out real time so if thats the case please direct me were i can watch your signals real time as it seems people really respect you and you must be good. Thanks

 

[EsKiller]

Quote from hafez50:

no doji you seem to be a great teacher and writer and people like you but i was looking threw your notes and i don't see were you called out one single trade real time or even said i'll buy this if it get here or sell this if it gets there.Since you seem so confident in your methods why not start calling out some real time trades so we can see real time how all these ways of trading work.about 15 yrs ago i knew a guy who was a charting genius. he showed me 100 charts and patterns and how they were 90% accurate and i was so impressed as it was like magic.then one day i covered up the second 1/2 of the days graph and i said tell me what happens the rest of the day since you're a charting genius. he said he can't tell me. i said on those other 100 you were unbelievable. the moral of the story is he was great with graphs after the fact pointing to this happened and that happened just as his charts said it would but when it was realtime he couldn't do it. Maybe i'm wrong and you do call things out real time so if thats the case please direct me were i can watch your signals real time as it seems people really respect you and you must be good. Thanks

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. NoDoji seems intelligent in terms of trading, but calling out actual trades is another story. Id like to see some real time trades if you are going to continue to preach to the masses.

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from hafez50:

no doji you seem to be a great teacher and writer and people like you but i was looking threw your notes and i don't see were you called out one single trade real time or even said i'll buy this if it get here or sell this if it gets there...

Maybe i'm wrong and you do call things out real time so if thats the case please direct me were i can watch your signals real time as it seems people really respect you and you must be good. Thanks

She has posted real-time trades here at ET in the past...prior to when you joined the forum.

Simply, you didn't look carefully through her post history here at ET. Also, most folks here at ET that have posted real-time trades usually will not bother posting links to those specific posts to someone that has "publicly" stated such did not occur.

My recommendation is that you contact her privately, then apologize and then make your link request. Maybe she'll be in a good mood and cater to your poor research skills.

Yet, I'll give you a few hints to help you in your research next time. Take a look at the thread called CL Redux for NoDoji's real-time trades (simulator and real money). There's a few other threads but that CL Redux is a great place to start your research.

Also, just in case you fire back and say real time trades aren't good enough. She has posted actual broker statements (simulator and real money) in the Trader P/L 2008, Trader P/L 2009 and Trader P/L 2010 threads. She did the same in her own trade journal called NoDoji's Day Trading Log.

It took me about 2mins to find the above info via the links @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/search.php?s= and http://www.google.com

 

[wrbtrader]

Quote from EsKiller:

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago. NoDoji seems intelligent in terms of trading, but calling out actual trades is another story. Id like to see some real time trades if you are going to continue to preach to the masses.

Do you want her to do it all over again specially for you

As I said to hafez50, good luck to you in trying to convince her to do such after many folks in the past have refused to believe she's done such along with personally attacking her when she has refused to cater to their needs for "direct links" to her past posts about real-time posted trades or broker statements here at ET.

I'm not saying you're attacking her. I'm just saying its like an old spinning record with scratches on it that keeps going around with these types of observations and requests of NoDoji every few months by folks that seem to forget ET has a search link, forgot that if they click on NoDoji's user name they'll have a direct link to her historical posts here at ET and forgot there's something called Google for fast search if the prior search resources seem too slow.

So yeah, after you finally find your proof via the info (big hints) I've provided in my prior post, new folks will show up in another thread a few months from and start it all over again with the you seem nice and intelligent...but...please show proof type of message posts.

*****
Her journey as a trader is all documented here at ET. You guys/gals should be privilege she did such via real-time trades here at ET and while showing proof (broker statements) although she posted such info for her own personal journey (from a losing trader to a profitable trader) and not because someone requested her to do such.
*****

 

[tradeitcool]

No one can call trades 100% real time. It is about trading with probabilities and managing your trades once you decide to take a position.

Calling out trades is like asking P. Manning to throw a touchdown on this very next play if he is such a good QB. That is not realistic.

But probabilities are that he will win the game over the next 30 or 40 plays by managing the game.

 

[RichardRimes]

I also followed her journal and her CL calls WHEN she posted them...she has nothing to "prove" to anyone. Nor is she selling...like a lot of traders in between trades she just likes to "chew the fat" just that she is far more articulate than most of us!