NoDoji...

Quote from cornix:

Don't know if HFT can "see" stop orders sitting somewhere or just the obvious levels where they likely are placed? :confused:
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I've asked this question to all sorts of people, even those who claim to have traded at the highest pro levels, and I can't get an answer.

Seems like a simple question to me:

Is there any entity (your broker, the exchange, market makers, Goldman Sachs, etc...) who can see the depth of market for stop orders the way we all can for limit orders, and if there is, do they know specifically how many of the stop orders are initiating orders and how many are offsetting orders?

All the answers I've seen hem and haw and come to the conclusion that it's only obvious levels where stops would be placed that are known. But it seems to me that if an order is placed, it's accessible to at least your broker or the exchange.
 
Quote from Zr1Trader:

To nodoji's question above, Yes others can see your stop orders.

http://www.jigsawtrading.com/learn-to-trade/free-lessons/lesson7/

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/forex-order-book
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I don't see how the Jigsaw example shows stop orders, but I'm admittedly a bit slow at "getting" stuff. They say, "Market orders you only see when someone actually submits the order and a trade occurs. With Depth and Sales, we are showing the limit orders AND the market orders that fill against them. Most of the time there is a discrepancy between what was on the limit order and what actually traded. Sometimes a lot more trade at the level than was shown because people add more limit orders at that price. This is known as an iceberg order. Other times, a lot fewer contracts trade because people pulled the limit orders." So it seems like they're showing what actually traded vs what showed at the bid/ask.

So for the OANDA example, they can see "limit orders and Stop/Loss or Take/Profit orders on open trades".

So in either case it appears they don't see Stop/Loss orders placed to initiate trades, but I imagine brokers/exchanges have that information.

None of this info would affect my trading because I trade off visual patterns based on price action, so if I had a sell stop 1 tick below the LOD to go short, it wouldn't make a difference to me whether there was 1 or 500 more stop orders visible.

I'm just curious because so many people talk about how "they hunt your stops".

Someone else said the big operators are out to make money not to make small retail traders lose money. I agree. I think what makes small retail traders lose money is the fact they trade without a tested plan or they have a positive expectancy plan and are unable to follow it.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I'm guessing by "take you on" s/he's referring to that delightful evaporation of liquidity that occurs in CL when a new high or low in a strong trend breaks or when slow, low volume consolidation lures a bunch of inexperienced retail traders to the wrong side of the tracks and breaks the S/R level where all the stops are. I once got slipped over 20 ticks on a stop entry when that happened; it wouldn't be pretty if that was your stop loss with 10 or more contracts on.
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imo that's not exactly what's happening lately. CL liquidity dried up when many of the former large specs (banks) got regulated out by max position limits. That was followed by the futures prop traders who used to swing 50 - 200 CL contracts per trade, but to my knowledge those firms all recently folded up and closed due to said traders not being profitable any more.

So when the CL lost big bank trading desks volume and then big-individual prop traders volume, the "middle class" liquidity evaporated. Now you have commercials (hedgers, consumers of oil) with remaining HFT funds and a smattering of individual retail traders left in the market.

Those violent explosions we see are air pockets of nil liquidity that were once occupied by large-spec volume, now gone. So when the commercials and/or HFT players place large orders in the market, it takes a lot of cents' distance to fill the lack of liquidity.

That's why price will often explode 40 - 80 cents directional in mere seconds, and ratchet right back thru half or even all that distance reversed quickly. The thickness of open interest = volume liquidity that once filled the ladder is gone. Now you have 20 - 30 cent chop zones of consolidation, followed by abrupt and extreme price explosions.

Market is too illiquid to handle volume orders when they hit.
 
My plan does not call for me to consider that someone might be "gunning for me". Maybe that will change someday but I still have "leaks" that relate to who I am and the decisions I make. I have more critical issues -- many more critical ones -- that need constant attention.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

My plan does not call for me to consider that someone might be "gunning for me". Maybe that will change someday but I still have "leaks" that relate to who I am and the decisions I make. I have more critical issues -- many more critical ones -- that need constant attention.
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Same here. Occasionally I'm stopped out to the tick of the turn on a trade, but that's almost ALWAYS because I didn't enter the trade properly at the price I was supposed to and my max allowable stop isn't survivable. Can't blame "them" for that :D
 
Any type of order you have placed on your platform your broker can see. Some stops are held on just the broker platform, some are held at the exchange depending on your broker.


Your right that brokers don't necessarily care about a 1 lot stop.

Regarding "hunting stops" if I'm a big player and need to buy 1500 lots of gold, I may sell 500 at market if we are close to a swing low that I know has 2000+ sell stops below it so I can get filled on a 2000 lot buy order.

Brokers and exchanges benefit from executing the most trades possible and not necessarily benefit from direction of price. Retail Joe blow can benefit from directional moves, retail joe blow can get in and out without moving price.ect. Each participant has their strengths and weaknesses. Big players can't really get in and out in a flash like retail joe blow without leaving "skid".

Every participant has different objectives, the market is just a utility. If you have a solid tested plan that you can follow with discipline and aren't just a gambler rogue trader than I'd say you are an "informed trader".

A good read about it all is this.

http://raudys.com/kursas/2002 Trading and exchanges.pdf
 
Years ago. CL daily ranges used to be 200+ to 300+ cents wide on a regular basis... with occasional ranges of 500 to 1,000 cents inside 24-hours.

Now look at the average daily ranges for past year or more. 200 cents is uncommon, 100+ cents common and less than 100 cents overall quite common.

So now you have all players stacking orders inside fewer and tighter congestion zones. Of course a majority of stops are clustered in obvious places... as CL stays pinned inside a 30-cent range for three hours on the clock, where else are trader's able to position?

It is the lack of historical liquidity that causes narrowed intraday ranges which causes chop-congest and explode price behavior. Nobody is purposely gunning for stops per se, any more than predatory HFTs have always been written to clear x-volume thru the ladder and then v-turn reverse the opposite way again.

Go back and look at 5min CL charts from 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and compare those daily ranges & swings to what you see in 2013. That'll explain everything to ya, visually :)
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Same here. Occasionally I'm stopped out to the tick of the turn on a trade, but that's almost ALWAYS because I didn't enter the trade properly at the price I was supposed to and my max allowable stop isn't survivable. Can't blame "them" for that :D
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Proper entry is part of it. So is, as austinp suggests, trading an illiquid market. Compare, for example, the ADV of the ES or NQ to that of CL. And anyone who places a stop a tick or two below his entry and gets stopped out can hardly jump to the conclusion that there is a vast stop-running conspiracy out there that wants his two or three (or ten or whatever) contracts.

The whole stop-running thing has become legend and very nearly myth. Professional traders look for trades. That's what they do. They search up and down looking for buyers or sellers depending on what it is they want to buy or sell or short. When they find somebody right, they act. They don't have to look for somebody's stop. They only need to find somebody who's interested in participating in a transaction. A stop implies that one is interested in a transaction.

Scalpers have their own issues, but anyone else who wants to avoid "stop-running" need only trade a highly-liquid market, preferably one that's electronic, enter correctly with a catastrophe stop, and go on from there. If the trade turns sour immediately, more often than not due to an improper entry, then get out and look for another opportunity, even if it's only a minute later. If the trade works, then just stick with it until it has run its course.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

I've asked this question to all sorts of people, even those who claim to have traded at the highest pro levels, and I can't get an answer.

Seems like a simple question to me:

Is there any entity (your broker, the exchange, market makers, Goldman Sachs, etc...) who can see the depth of market for stop orders the way we all can for limit orders, and if there is, do they know specifically how many of the stop orders are initiating orders and how many are offsetting orders?

All the answers I've seen hem and haw and come to the conclusion that it's only obvious levels where stops would be placed that are known. But it seems to me that if an order is placed, it's accessible to at least your broker or the exchange.
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Yea, plus there must be a reason for a stop run. In other words, investing the money to move the market by 5-10 ticks in order to trigger a stop order only able to move it 1 more tick makes no sense in my view.

I know many transform their losses into rationalization of some form like market or "they" has something personal against them, but it's simply not true. Market participants care less and will only run stops if they see good potential of this trade, which happens at obvious levels (aka great scalping entries :p ).

It's not someone evil trying to stop out poor traders at it's own expense. Nothing personal there, just business. :)
 
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