NoDoji...

Quote from Swan Noir:

When you say HTF do you mean Higher Time Frame or did you mean to say HFT for High Frequency Traders? Also when you say "take you on" what do you mean and why would at (or even about) a 10 lot trigger that?

Thanks.

I duno, have no proof. However, you will thru long painful experience until you get enough trades to statistically confirm suspicions. Say if your edge is 57% at 1:1 (Cornix stat I believe) then you probably need couple 100 trades to confirm. Lots of wasted life. I prefer to address problem before/if appears. So my tolerance for drawdowns is real small.
hft high frequency traders - they figure out what you do and where is stop and deal wih you in couple of seconds.

I was manipulated enough to be careful
 
I am kind of suspicious this guy is really a good trader. what I only can say he is very discplined. if that guy works like a machine or robot, then wall street can be replaced with algorithm trading, let computer program do it.

since I am a discretional trader. I do not trade purely technically. though I like cripsy cut science.

to my common sense, trading really needs rules and disciplines, from this point of view, I think he is really a good trader.

market is not crispy cut science, full of maybe this maybe that, too many variables. that easily creates confusion/hestitation to enter or get out.

from this fact, I think clearly define what you do is verycritical. I have a bad experience last week, I bought last lastweek friday NBG's 4.5 call, this monday it jumps, my calls rockets 5folds, I am wondering thisjunk will shoot more, obviously I already noticed NBG pullbackwith heavy volume thursday, and a thrust failed bar in 5.59 (5.5 breakout failed), all means SELL, but I still hold, then on thursday I cannot tolerate any more, get rid of it.

according to my rules, I should observe the market after I enter, any sign of exit, I should take. but I broken it, ignore those market signs, waste me time. if I get out on tuesday, I can put more focus on SPY,grab the whole SPY reserval.

Disciplined army always beat lousy loose lazy army.

but too mechanical is I do not agree.

for example, NBG last week, the SELL signs are tuesday's heavy volume with noprogress, in the opening it jumps to new high, some guys whohave stop there, and there is no much stop loss there, that means, breakout of 5.5 failed, it is a pump and dump,
SELL is obvious.

a disciplined and wise trader will watch those signs, then sell. a mechincal disciplied trader may put a stop buy above monday high, end up with loss, or a program trader.































Quote from NoDoji:

I realize now more than ever that Geez was the rarest sort of trader. He had a specific plan based on statistics compiled over time, and the ability to trade it manually like a machine. As soon as he got a valid signal, he placed his order, always adhering to appropriate size based on the R:R. It was amazing how consistent he was at simply trading every valid signal without allowing the result of any trade to influence the next trade in any way, and how he could just leave his trade alone until either the stop or target order was filled.

When I first met him and watched him trade, I thought he was pretty dense because he'd allow trades to come within a penny of his profit target and then stop him out for the full loss. I asked him why he didn't move his stop to break even or just take profit a few pennies less than target if price stalled right there.

And he told me something that I couldn't get my head around at the time because I didn't understand what good trading was about. He told me that his trading is based on specific statistics that demonstrated net profitability over time and if he were to start messing with his stops and targets it would lead him down a slippery slope and skew the odds of his plan.

Even now it's a struggle for me every day to ignore my thoughts about setups. With few exceptions, the hard right edge always feels dangerous and my dear brain steps right up to protect me with thoughts such as "let's watch how price reacts first, then go from there" or "hmmm, it's starting to look a bit weak, why not move your stop to break even just in case".

 
I have had the experience of being on the wrong side of the "evaporation" -- having a short executed at it's bottom for it to instantly bounce back up and take me out.

I think you may be guessing wrong and expressing concepts s/he is not aware of.

Quote from NoDoji:

I'm guessing by "take you on" s/he's referring to that delightful evaporation of liquidity that occurs in CL when a new high or low in a strong trend breaks or when slow, low volume consolidation lures a bunch of inexperienced retail traders to the wrong side of the tracks and breaks the S/R level where all the stops are. I once got slipped over 20 ticks on a stop entry when that happened; it wouldn't be pretty if that was your stop loss with 10 or more contracts on.
 
Quote from Swan Noir:

I have had the experience of being on the wrong side of the "evaporation" -- having a short executed at it's bottom for it to instantly bounce back up and take me out.

I think you may be guessing wrong and expressing concepts s/he is not aware of.

you correct, I am not too familiar with these concepts as I trade longer term. I was referring to trader whos trades are copied by larger trader. Your 3 contracts trade immediately attracts 100 contracts trade and now you have 10 pips stop for 103 contracts. Hopefully that larger trader does not frontrun your order :) It is very hard to detect someone copying your trades. if you think this is scifi, see forex forums where trade copiers are widespread.
 
Quote from toolazy:

I duno, have no proof. However, you will thru long painful experience until you get enough trades to statistically confirm suspicions. Say if your edge is 57% at 1:1 (Cornix stat I believe) then you probably need couple 100 trades to confirm. Lots of wasted life. I prefer to address problem before/if appears. So my tolerance for drawdowns is real small.
hft high frequency traders - they figure out what you do and where is stop and deal wih you in couple of seconds.

I was manipulated enough to be careful

Lately in CL I enter with SLs (2 ticks room) and surprisingly get pretty good fills. While stop-losses are usually not where it's likely to attract too many people and thus never led to serious slippage as well. Trade less than 10 contracts though, much less.

Don't know if HFT can "see" stop orders sitting somewhere or just the obvious levels where they likely are placed? :confused:
 
Quote from cornix:

Lately in CL I enter with SLs (2 ticks room) and surprisingly get pretty good fills. While stop-losses are usually not where it's likely to attract too many people and thus never led to serious slippage as well. Trade less than 10 contracts though, much less.

Don't know if HFT can "see" stop orders sitting somewhere or just the obvious levels where they likely are placed? :confused:

my wild guess - if orders are on exchange servers, they are sold further if interested buyer exists. so it is easy to create robot that copies orders where traders last 40 trades have say 50% and last 20 70%+ win rate or something like that and stops copying when win rate drops under 60%.

it is not unsolvable as one should check sales history, just in case. If someone copies after you entered and exits after you exit, not much damage. If you can hide your stops, you laughing.
 
Quote from cornix:

Lately in CL I enter with SLs (2 ticks room) and surprisingly get pretty good fills. While stop-losses are usually not where it's likely to attract too many people and thus never led to serious slippage as well. Trade less than 10 contracts though, much less.

Don't know if HFT can "see" stop orders sitting somewhere or just the obvious levels where they likely are placed? :confused:

I didn't think you traded CL? Come join us in the CL redux thread.
 
Quote from toolazy:

my wild guess - if orders are on exchange servers, they are sold further if interested buyer exists. so it is easy to create robot that copies orders where traders last 40 trades have say 50% and last 20 70%+ win rate or something like that and stops copying when win rate drops under 60%.

it is not unsolvable as one should check sales history, just in case. If someone copies after you entered and exits after you exit, not much damage. If you can hide your stops, you laughing.

Probably. Not sure though if that is the case and if stop orders are actually sold. Also if there's say 10 cars order alone in some place, it will take more than that to move the price there even one tick most of the time during RTH. Not worth it IMO.

So there's a danger mostly in obvious areas of likely mass stop orders placement.

Remember, HFT doesn't play for US to lose, HFT plays for THEM to make money. Thus investment in "running the stops" must pay off in the form of relatively significant move, doesn't matter lasting 1 second or less, but significant enough (several ticks at least is my guess).
 
Quote from pinkman:

I didn't think you traded CL? Come join us in the CL redux thread.

Not planning to share what I do there for now. Not because it's something secret, just because I'm in the phase of my own personal research currently and got pretty busy with "real" family business last couple of months. :)
 
Back
Top