Nobody Knows The Number

[notagain]

Social distancing is working, trend is less fevers last seven days.
https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

 

[Turveyd]

You have to make a decision based on two bad choices. What you are trying to convince yourself of is that there is a third choice, one where you open up the economy, everyone gets sick quickly with minimal deaths and then it is all over. That choice does not exist. At least there is nothing out there that supports the existence of such third choice. But it does not hurt to hope and pray.

Sorry but there is Zero evidence to support that this is bad enough to warrant the damage being done.

Not like you can trust the numbers, hospitals all quite last few days, then they post 5900 new cases and 619 deaths ( mostly OAP homes with no attempt to help from the look of it )

 

[Turveyd]

We gonna get an answer to the question of "taking like a man" approach soon enough. Brazil, Belarus,etc.
Even Sweden up to a degree. In 4-5 weeks we will know if it was worth it to try to save the elderly.

Oh yeah, and old people tend to vote, unlike the youth.

Unless there in care homes, then I guess no votey, no hospital care.

It's not about old people, that's an excuse the millennials are the scared ones they just say that cause it sounds better, go on Facebook, all on about people miles apart on a beach, no bugger caring about care homes

 

[tommcginnis]

.

Thank you for posting this, but you can see the reception. I got the same reception a week ago, on an ultramarathon list famously populated with economists, statisticians, and genuine rocket scientists. Eventually, we'll realize that without population incidence, we have nothing. And whether that comes before or after we have destroyed lives of a social species through "social distancing".... it will come *after* we declare the crisis over, have it re-bloom 3 weeks later, and cycle back to shut-downs again and again and again.

We are not on a viable long-term strategy, and we won't *get* a viable long-term strategy until we have sound numbers from which to work. Period.

 

[tommcginnis]

Yada yada yada. We need the antibody test, like yesterday.

Bingo. Watch the video -- you'll "Yay!" yourself hoarse before it's over.

 

[tommcginnis]

Most likely the anti body tests will show only 1% or less of the population has antibodies so far.

What does that allow you to do?

Southall, you contribute *much* to ET's trading threads, but this whole populationy-cohorty-actuarial thing seems juuuuuust a bit outside your wheelhouse.

 

[southall]

Southall, you contribute *much* to ET's trading threads, but this whole populationy-cohorty-actuarial thing seems juuuuuust a bit outside your wheelhouse.

Its not rocket science, its basic maths.

 

[guru]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246843945872695297

(I’m not sure how he concluded that 50%+ cases have no symptoms)

 

[southall]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246843945872695297

(I’m not sure how he concluded that 50%+ cases have no symptoms)

Iceland currently has 1400 cases, 4 deaths and 11 in serious/critical condition

If half of those in serious/critical die there will be 10 cases out of 1480 = 0.7%

 

[guru]

Iceland currently has 1400 cases, 4 deaths and 11 in serious/critical condition

If half of those in serious/critical die there will be 10 cases out of 1480 = 0.7%

And what if none of them will die? Why turn solid data into speculations about “if”? Or when more people die than other data will also change and there will be more samples.
Just wait for more data and use actual data without speculating.