No, you don't need a trend

Is this chart from today, the pre-market? My trading style changes during the day. In the morning I'm typically counter-trend, mostly because that's where the volatility usually occurs but in the afternoon I typically switch gears and look to ride a move because that's when the trends usually occur.

My only trade today was the one I posted in the morning.

Quote from Icarus5:

Yeah, I always wonder how those counter-trending guys do on a day like today.

I
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here's 1 trigger I see tho. Falling wedges are very bullish, even more so if they penetrate the bottom support level. Moves below falling support levels are very bullish. I would have been long down here.
 

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Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

Is this chart from today, the pre-market?
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Chart was from the 20th of December. If one entered too early in the day right after the open and tried to add more than once the market fell and it would of been a nice loss. What would of kept you out of the 1471 level around 6:35 or the next pop down at 6:46 or so?

I also see some stopping volume on the 6:53 (didn't help), 6:59 (stopped it for a bit) and the 7:12 bars (didn't help much either). ES didn't really stop untill the 7:19 bar which didn't have high volume. Would you of entered on those 3 areas where the volume is marked with an ellipse vs. the falling wedge you mentioned? (I still can't figure out how to post these charts without them looking blurry).

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It's always hard to say in hindsight what I would have done. There's a very good chance the triggers at 6:35 and 6:46 would not have been entries for me. My triggers on the 1's have to be supported by something on the longer term charts, mostly the 5's. But, I have been caught in a situation you are presenting and you're right, this is just a flat out loss. I take a butt kicking from time to time like any other trader.

Quote from X-11:

Chart was from the 20th of December. If one entered too early in the day right after the open and tried to add more than once the market fell and it would of been a nice loss. What would of kept you out of the 1471 level around 6:35 or the next pop down at 6:46 or so?

I also see some stopping volume on the 6:53 (didn't help), 6:59 (stopped it for a bit) and the 7:12 bars (didn't help much either). ES didn't really stop untill the 7:19 bar which didn't have high volume. Would you of entered on those 3 areas where the volume is marked with an ellipse vs. the falling wedge you mentioned? (I still can't figure out how to post these charts without them looking blurry).

6uhh2kw.jpg
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Here is how I trade such chart.

You will clearly notice small risk and nothing but good runners.

Chart was a bit small but you will rarely get a 3BR when you are looking for an entry with confluence from the trendline and the trend, and even if you do, it's a small loss hinting of a possible trend change.

Anek
 

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Hi. Three questions:

1- What if you are wrong and buy and buy more and buy more and it still goes lower? You never sell at a loss? Haven't you ever taken a huge blow?

2- You always buy first and sell later, or you also short?

3- Haven't you said something about a non-directional trading strategy where you would buy stocks and then buy puts and if it goes down you sell the puts at profit to buy more stocks, or am I confusing you with someone else?

Thank you and congrats for the success.
 
1- What if you are wrong and buy and buy more and buy more and it still goes lower? You never sell at a loss? Haven't you ever taken a huge blow?-------->>> I give myself a maximum of 3 triggers. Once I take the 3rd I switch from trying to generate profit to managing risk. On paper this strategy is very hard to understand. To fully grasp it you would have to see it in action because there is a lot of judgment involved. I don't just arbitrarily buy at X-point intervals when it goes against me. The logic for putting on the first trigger MUST still exist if I'm to add another to it. If the chart has changed in any way I won't just add to a losing trade for the sake of adding. Have I take a huge blow? More times than I care to admit. I took many a beating in my early days of trading with this strategy. I came away from it with a whole new respect for the market, and a much better trader because of it. My early P/L used to look like a roller coaster. Nowadays, it's more like a leisurely drive down a very straight country road -- nice and steady.

2- You always buy first and sell later, or you also short?----->>> Not sure I understand the question but I use the same strategy for selling short.

3- Haven't you said something about a non-directional trading strategy where you would buy stocks and then buy puts and if it goes down you sell the puts at profit to buy more stocks, or am I confusing you with someone else?----->>> Yep. In a nutshell, the stock MUST have superior economics - i.e. brand name, limited competition, be a market leader, and it must be beaten down by the market. This is like the Peter Lynch method of investing w/o having to time the market. Start small, manage risk, add at lower prices, and if you did your homework right you'll eventually be right. I wouldn't dare use this strategy on a tech stock but it works wonders on stocks like WAG, MCD, SBUX, KO, PEP, PG, CL, and the like.

Quote from solyaris:

Hi. Three questions:

1- What if you are wrong and buy and buy more and buy more and it still goes lower? You never sell at a loss? Haven't you ever taken a huge blow?

2- You always buy first and sell later, or you also short?

3- Haven't you said something about a non-directional trading strategy where you would buy stocks and then buy puts and if it goes down you sell the puts at profit to buy more stocks, or am I confusing you with someone else?

Thank you and congrats for the success.
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Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

3- Haven't you said something about a non-directional trading strategy where you would buy stocks and then buy puts and if it goes down you sell the puts at profit to buy more stocks, or am I confusing you with someone else?----->>> Yep. In a nutshell, the stock MUST have superior economics - i.e. brand name, limited competition, be a market leader, and it must be beaten down by the market. This is like the Peter Lynch method of investing w/o having to time the market. Start small, manage risk, add at lower prices, and if you did your homework right you'll eventually be right. I wouldn't dare use this strategy on a tech stock but it works wonders on stocks like WAG, MCD, SBUX, KO, PEP, PG, CL, and the like. [/B]
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PTF,

I don't think you yet addressed the #3 question (i.e., the "put buying" part of your strategy). IOW, do you buy puts or just simply average down?
 
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