No way are stocks selling off in Sept

[DeepFried]

Quote from bsmeter:

Very good!!!

Finally someone who knows something.

Mark Nov 10th on your calender.

Here's a sample of the type of mind you're dealing with if you attempt to converse with "bsmeter."

The person calling itself "bsmeter" is psychotic. I have some doubts that bsmeter or Dogbollocks even trade securities as their discussions of the markets are weak and they are preoccupied with nutjob conspiracy theories.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=75639

<i>"bsmeter
Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 532
08-25-06 10:23 PM

Here's how it works:

1) MANUFACTURE the evidence. Failing that PLANT the evidence. ( Mossad operations are already in full gear in the Iraq/Iran border )

2) Full court press in the Zionist media complex where Everyone and I mean EVERYONE reads from the same script. The demonrats, the republicunts, the newscasters aka paid Zionist hacks, fifth columnist blockheads like Putz down to the sewer rats living below congress. Everyone gets to read from the same script

3) Anyone who dares deviate from the script is immediately labelled as a "traitor" by the vast Zionist media complex. If the labelling doesn't shut them up, they'll start having "mysterious accidents".

4) Create a few more manufactured red alerts to keep the public shaking in fear. The average member of the public will be led to belive that Iran will swim across the red sea, into the Mediterranean and across the vast Atlantic to kill him in his sleep at home.


And last but not least

5) Implement a Draft.

After all someone needs to guard all the oil fields."</i>

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from joeyata1:

aaii bullish ratio skied to 57% this week. i'd say we don't tank in sept but in the oct -nov period. lots and lots of bad preannoucements coming. we've already seen a ton. the last 3 weeks has bene on bs manipulating vol. we'll see what happens the next few weeks

The Nasdaq is hitting a resistance level, the VIX is under 12, we've had a big run on decreasing volume....I keep thinking we're going to pull back, also, but one of the things that worries me is that the sensible, intelligent thing to do would be to put out some shorts here - and so many times the smart thing to do turns out to be wrong when we're in the middle of a bull run like this.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from FullyArticulate:

Quote from DeepFried:

I'll bite and take the bear side.

-Growth is lower but strong at 2.9% GDP,
If growth is strong, the fed will continue raising rates. If a slowdown occurs, then growth isn't strong.

-Fed appears to have stopped hiking rates and some are saying they'll cut rates next,
I don't know when "next" is. Fed Funds have a pegged an all-but-zero chance of a change in interest rates through December. But, the same argument as above. Is growth is strong, the fed will raise rates. If growth is weak, then they'll cut rates, but that means the market should be weak as well.

-Unemployment and inflation numbers are good,
"The trimmed-mean PCE index has risen at a 3% annual rate in the past six months, the fastest growth since June 2001. The index has risen 2.7% in the past year, the same as in June. On an unrounded basis, however, year-over-year core inflation is at the highest level in 14 years. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed President and FOMC voter Jeffrey Lacker said the trimmed-mean PCE indez is the best gauge of underlying inflation."

Highest in 14 years? Highest/6 months since '01? You really want to call these numbers "good"?

-We're coming out of a period of extreme, intense pessimism through the summer,
I don't know how to measure that, so it's hard to respond. Historically, September is pretty extremely pessimistic.

-Oil and gasoline prices are dropping,
From "insanely high" to just "amazingly high". A retracement from $80 isn't a resounding recovery. $80 isn't all that far from 1979 inflation-adjusted highs, and we know what happened after '79.

-N. Korea and Iran are relatively quiet,
Really? What news have you been reading? Iran is going to continue to develop their nuclear program. Bush is going to push the UN to do something. They won't. Bush will act unilaterally. I swear this happened before... If only I could remember when, and with which president...

-A lot of people have already positioned shorts for Sept....
Actually, peeking at the Commitment of Traders report, non reportables are seriously long the S&P. Non-commercials and commercials are both net short. We all know which side is *always* wrong.

Unless I'm wrong.
Ditto!

I just think there's a good argument against.

Excellent post, FA. Thank you.

 

[joeyata1]

i agree 100% but the last 4 or 5 days so many have turned bullish. hell we might run in sept and oct and screw all them crack huge into year end. anythings possible thats why i only buy 2008 puts to give me time to be right

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from joeyata1:

i agree 100% but the last 4 or 5 days so many have turned bullish.

Yeah, there's definitely a big "oh what a wonderful world" vibe going on. There are some big housing numbers out tomorrow and Wednesday. Those might adjust some thinking.

 

[DeepFried]

We're only at the halfway mark for the month but the market has been looking pretty strong.

I started this thread because I wanted to go short at the beginning of them month but the market kept showing strength and I kept losing money on puts. So I wanted to review the bull case. Looks like 'the trend is your friend'.

My guess is that we might see some choppiness as we hit the old highs but, in light of the market's strength, it looks like we won't be getting any kind of a serious Sept pullback.

 

[nassau]

disagree...not all sectors can be up all the time..

since august so many of the nasdaq and nyse stocks have run long....
time for some profit and short selling...each dollar pullback equals good returns...
until the news clears up about the options problems and now those corporation will run into the same problem as rmbs is with reporting accurate returns and banking details..

initially seen a 10percent correct ...now up 25percent next 60days...
unless you are stating a sell off is a reversal..

w

 

[DeepFried]

Yes, the market has had quite a run off the July lows but that in and of itself doesn't mean we will pullback. It depends on the current perception re inflation, rates, forward earnings, etc.

If oil, gold and other commodities continue to trend lower that will calm the Fed and be a strong support for equities.

I don't see the suspicious options grants having any notable impact on the market. Only a handful of companies are being investigated and even those companies found guilty of wrongdoing aren't likely to experience any resulting impact on their core business.

Quote from nassau:

initially seen a 10percent correct ...now up 25percent next 60days...
unless you are stating a sell off is a reversal..

? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

 

[nassau]

Quote from DeepFried:

Yes, the market has had quite a run off the July lows but that in and of itself doesn't mean we will pullback. It depends on the current perception re inflation, rates, forward earnings, etc.

If oil, gold and other commodities continue to trend lower that will calm the Fed and be a strong support for equities.

I don't see the suspicious options grants having any notable impact on the market. Only a handful of companies are being investigated and even those companies found guilty of wrongdoing aren't likely to experience any resulting impact on their core business.





? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I agree with you about that it will be the traders perception of the stocks value that will create the long or short sentiment.
and agree the option situation impact on core business....but this type of news/proporgana allows the markets to breath and profits to be taken. we have all seen gold, oil etc go up and down and the market ignore it..
we or at least me have no real idea of what is really going on from the news,sec filings or the board room, cramers, goldman's etc..and eventually the stocks come back to earth or basic math..
ie was the crazy moves by brcm,mrvl,ati,rmbs,nvda, and the list goes on...not all stocks can be up in all sectors as has been the past..(in a manner of speaking)..
a good example of a good op coming if not already here is the recent run of akam,gm,aeos,rmbs...up to far to quick now perception is coming into play reguardless of the news and cramers and the stock usually take a breath which gives us a good short term short ..10-25 percent...depending on the stock,sector and beta of the stock ...

w

 

[ByLoSellHi]

If I had bought or held stocks in 2003, when the Naz was at 1,100 and the DJIA was at 8,000...


....I'd be taking all my chips off the table and cashing them in right now.

That would give my a nice 100% to 300% gain, in most cases.

Why would I want to risk losing money when the best further gains that could be eked out were 3% to 6% (under ideal circumstances, which probably won't evolve)?

I'd be an incredibly risk friendly hog to take those risks.