No way are stocks selling off in Sept

Quote from Longhorns:

That article is dated July 6th. It's now Sept 1st (actually it's the 2nd on the East Coast). Those numbers are completely meaningless almost 2 months later.
:confused:
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agree. Post is outdated.....need some new info
 
Quote from FullyArticulate:

Quote from DeepFried:

I'll bite and take the bear side.

-Growth is lower but strong at 2.9% GDP,
If growth is strong, the fed will continue raising rates. If a slowdown occurs, then growth isn't strong.

-Fed appears to have stopped hiking rates and some are saying they'll cut rates next,
I don't know when "next" is. Fed Funds have a pegged an all-but-zero chance of a change in interest rates through December. But, the same argument as above. Is growth is strong, the fed will raise rates. If growth is weak, then they'll cut rates, but that means the market should be weak as well.

-Unemployment and inflation numbers are good,
"The trimmed-mean PCE index has risen at a 3% annual rate in the past six months, the fastest growth since June 2001. The index has risen 2.7% in the past year, the same as in June. On an unrounded basis, however, year-over-year core inflation is at the highest level in 14 years. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed President and FOMC voter Jeffrey Lacker said the trimmed-mean PCE indez is the best gauge of underlying inflation."

Highest in 14 years? Highest/6 months since '01? You really want to call these numbers "good"? :-)

-We're coming out of a period of extreme, intense pessimism through the summer,
I don't know how to measure that, so it's hard to respond. Historically, September is pretty extremely pessimistic.

-Oil and gasoline prices are dropping,
From "insanely high" to just "amazingly high". A retracement from $80 isn't a resounding recovery. $80 isn't all that far from 1979 inflation-adjusted highs, and we know what happened after '79.

-N. Korea and Iran are relatively quiet,
Really? What news have you been reading? :-) Iran is going to continue to develop their nuclear program. Bush is going to push the UN to do something. They won't. Bush will act unilaterally. I swear this happened before... If only I could remember when, and with which president...

-A lot of people have already positioned shorts for Sept....
Actually, peeking at the Commitment of Traders report, non reportables are seriously long the S&P. Non-commercials and commercials are both net short. We all know which side is *always* wrong.

Unless I'm wrong.
Ditto!

I just think there's a good argument against. :-)
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Very good!!!

Finally someone who knows something. :D

Mark Nov 10th on your calender.
 
Hey everyone just wanted to say Good Job to everyone Wonderful Thread!!!

FullyArticulate Great Post!!! Thanks so much for your insight...
I have to agree...

I just wanted to say that being on the ground in the Mississippi Gulf Coast is a good indication of where we are heading as an entire market!

We are in Recession here, and have been for a year since Hurricane Katrina.

So any small mistake in any economies, local or in New York, and we all are going to see large moves to the down side...

Just look at your technicals...We are way over due, for a correction, the time is coming, and all it will take is a trigger..

So be on your guard, and have a plan, for Huge Sell Off, to the down side...

Also if there are any VC's out there, or private placement folks out there, that would like a stab at growth opportunities in the Gulf Coast region now is the time to take positions...

Would Love to raise huge amounts of Capital on business ventures here on the coast...


sincerely,

JC

JCBLESS@aol.com
 
Quote from bsmeter:

Very good!!!

Finally someone who knows something. :D

Mark Nov 10th on your calender.
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So, what is so important on Nov 10th?


I really think there is some bullish sentiment on the markets right now, or in other words, i think traders are not risking shorts at the moment and so is no that likely that a short squeeze can happen. But i do think too that traders are ready to pull the trigger on any sign of weakness.

We know the overall sentiment is bearish, everybody talks in recession, in 4 year cycles, even in crash and so that is a reason to not believe in a sell. But, years ago, the markets have gone up with extremely bullish sentiment and gone down with extremely bearish sentiment too. So, what comes next, we never know exactly, but i think we might expect at least some correction, wether there are shorts or not in the markets.

The big money always define the way, but only in the short term. If they are the only ones who buy, to whom are they going to sell months later? It won´t be to me for sure :) .

Bye.

Luigi.
 
have a look at weekly spx chart, if that ain't bullish dunno what it is...breakout green shite from the base...one of my fav buy setups. we goin' higher.
 
Quote from S2007S:

agree. Post is outdated.....need some new info
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- Is the article outdated?
Yes.

- Can you learn by comparing the article's prognosis to the unraveling of the short term NDQ action back in July?
Absolutely.
 
Quote from FullyArticulate:


-Unemployment and inflation numbers are good,
"The trimmed-mean PCE index has risen at a 3% annual rate in the past six months, the fastest growth since June 2001. The index has risen 2.7% in the past year, the same as in June. On an unrounded basis, however, year-over-year core inflation is at the highest level in 14 years. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed President and FOMC voter Jeffrey Lacker said the trimmed-mean PCE indez is the best gauge of underlying inflation."

Highest in 14 years? Highest/6 months since '01? You really want to call these numbers "good"? :-)
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The 128,000 "new jobs" is bogus as usual. Only about 7,000 real jobs were created, the rest are from the CES birth/death model. Check it out on the BLS website. Plus, it is generally agreed that 250,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep even.
 
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