No velocity = no economy.
- Thread starter dealmaker
- Start date
I checked FRED. That chart only goes to April 1, not even 2 weeks after the shutdown. The FED didn't start ramping up the money printing until mid March. First round of stimulus checks hadn't even come in the mail yet. I'd like to see it updated to August.
Velocity is money supply / GDP, both numbers for Q2 have been out for a little while. The chart above is quarterly, but the data includes Q1 and Q2 of this year - they just use start of the quarter for their chart labels.
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You cannot wake up someone that pretends to be asleep.
But it's not "0" . Even if it's 1....30 trillion dollars x 1 =$30 trillion dollars?
I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years......you're not going to get headline CPI inflation if all the newly minted money goes to servicing ever increasing debts and the rest gets plowed into stocks and home prices.
If you look at the "rich people CPI" (luxury city housing, art, collectible autos, vintage wine, etc) you see plenty of inflation there over the last 2 decades.
More UBI and $1200 stimulus checks are the only types of things that can lead to real CPI inflation (or loss of faith in the USD) at this point.....and even then, if those $1200 stimulus checks are being used to make mortgage and credit card payments, inflation will still remain muted.
If you look at the "rich people CPI" (luxury city housing, art, collectible autos, vintage wine, etc) you see plenty of inflation there over the last 2 decades.
More UBI and $1200 stimulus checks are the only types of things that can lead to real CPI inflation (or loss of faith in the USD) at this point.....and even then, if those $1200 stimulus checks are being used to make mortgage and credit card payments, inflation will still remain muted.
The FRED® Blog
A plodding dollar: The recent decrease in the velocity of money
Posted on April 7, 2016
................................ In general, the velocity of money starts to increase after a recession is over, when confidence is restored. However, since 2007, the velocity of money in the U.S. has been decreasing, which means consumers and firms are still holding onto cash instead of spending it. This behavior, which also reflects a decrease in inflation, suggests that confidence in the recovery is still low. When confidence is restored, we should expect to see a rebound in the velocity of money. (annny day now!!!!)
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-decrease-in-the-velocity-of-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
A plodding dollar: The recent decrease in the velocity of money
Posted on April 7, 2016
................................ In general, the velocity of money starts to increase after a recession is over, when confidence is restored. However, since 2007, the velocity of money in the U.S. has been decreasing, which means consumers and firms are still holding onto cash instead of spending it. This behavior, which also reflects a decrease in inflation, suggests that confidence in the recovery is still low. When confidence is restored, we should expect to see a rebound in the velocity of money. (annny day now!!!!)
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-decrease-in-the-velocity-of-money/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog
What you mention does not invalidate the point made by dealmaker's post.
For a long discussion of the money supply and inflation see post #22 here https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/economists-on-the-run.347673/page-3#post-5163382
You're making a salient point. I have commented on this numerous times myself in these forums. It's both the amount of money in the private sector economy and how that money is distributed that's important.