Excellent
No such thing as current trend
- Thread starter bidask
- Start date
Excellent
not the point.
once you enter, ofcourse direction matters. prior to entry, does it??
surf
""All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend might mean; we can only determine historical trends."
I think this is inaccurate. Methods of defining trends compare combinations of historical price AND present price. You can also define them with future prices e.g. "This market is going to trend higher".
I think this is inaccurate. Methods of defining trends compare combinations of historical price AND present price. You can also define them with future prices e.g. "This market is going to trend higher".
I disagree (except the semantics bit). A long-term drift will show itself in a pretty random way, whereas a trend is more stable and predictable. Examples:
An uptrend consists of higher highs and higher lows. An uptrend does not have periods where there are large price reversals significantly below prior major lows.
An upward drift can quite conceivably have large retracements below major lows. You could have ten years or flat or downward price movement, then another 10 years of extremely strong upward prices.
Looking at stocks, it is clear that there is not a long-term uptrend, especially not in real dollars (adjusted for inflation). 1932 lows decisively smashed any uptrend. The 1974 lows did the same (once you look at it in real dollars). The 2002/03 lows smashed the uptrend of the late 1990s.
If you had traded long stocks with a stop, you would have been stopped out during each of these periods.