No recession next year

[fhl]

Not good

 

[Covertibility]

The rate hike chatter has to do with the ECB and Japan's ending of the QE programs and the effect on currency moves, not the economy. Long rates will move up if helicopter money is deployed but such an event would have to happen at least twice a year to prevent people from just stashing it away.

 

[fhl]

The red bar indicates when both ism manufac and ism non manufac are both below 52.
Black line is s&p 500.
Uh-oh.

 

[monkeyc]

The red bar indicates when both ism manufac and ism non manufac are both below 52.
Black line is s&p 500.
Uh-oh.

According to that, there should have been a double-dip recession in 2003. But there wasn't.

Doesn't seem like a reliable indicator

 

[fhl]

 

[Covertibility]

It appears there will be no recession during the time of 'Murica's first black Republican Democratic president.

 

[fhl]

 

[fhl]

earnings declines preceding recessions

 

[aex]

I saw that chart here, among others

 

[Covertibility]

Q3 GDP 2.9% vs estimate of 2.5% and the prior of 1.4%

The Chicago Boys marked up the easiest two variables of the GDP report, inventories and trade. If one were to back out those two, GDP runs at 1.4% annualized. Personal consumption cooled a bit to 2.1%, below the expectation of 2.7%.

Grandma should be making some dovish comments next week to bring that dollar down.