No recession next year

Covertibility said:
GDPNow ups Q2 GDP to 2.9% from 2.5% 9 days ago:

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif


Pending home sales were thru the roof:
Pending Home Sales Lift Off in April to Over 10-Year High


The interesting thing about housing is that the low credit score people haven't been showing up in the data. Also,
FHFA: Home prices increase again, rise 1.3%
Marks 19 consecutive quarterly price increases

One could say that "Housing is ______ ____." (first blank is a seven letter word. second word is 5 letters.)
More...

Interest rates
 
"
Only a captured government drone could put out a report showing only 38,000 new jobs created, with the working age population rising by 205,000, and have the balls to report the unemployment rate plunged from 5.0% to 4.7%, the lowest since August 2007. If you ever needed proof these worthless bureaucrats are nothing more than propaganda peddlers for the establishment, this report is it. The two previous months were revised significantly downward in the fine print of the press release. It is absolutely mind boggling that these government pond scum hacks can get away with reporting that 484,000 people who WERE unemployed last month are no longer unemployed this month.

Life is so fucking good in this country, they all just decided to kick back and leave the labor force. Maybe they all won the Powerball lottery. How many people do you know who can afford to just leave the workforce and live off their vast savings? In addition, 180,000 more Americans left the workforce, bringing the total to a record 94.7 million Americans not in the labor force. The corporate MSM will roll out the usual “experts” to blather about the retirement of Baby Boomers as the false narrative to deflect blame from Obama and his minions. The absolute absurdity of the data heaped upon the ignorant masses is clearly evident in the data over the last three months.

Here is government idiocracy at its finest:
• Number of working age Americans added since March – 406,000
• Number of employed Americans since March – NEGATIVE 290,000
• Number of Americans who have supposedly voluntarily left the workforce – 1,226,000
• Unemployment rate – FELL from 5.0% to 4.7%

Talk about perpetrating the BIG LIE. Goebbels and Bernays are smiling up from the fires of hell as their acolytes of propaganda have kicked it into hyper-drive. We only need the other 7.4 million “officially” unemployed Americans to leave the work force and we’ll have 0% unemployment. At the current pace we should be there by election time. I wonder if Cramer, Liesman, or any of the other CNBC mouthpieces for the establishment will point out that not one single full-time job has been added in 2016. There were 6,000 less full-time jobs in May than in January, while there are 572,000 more low paying, no benefits, part-time Obama service jobs. Sounds like a recovery to me."

more at
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/06/03/funniest-bls-report-ever/
 
Industrial Production: -1.4% over the past year. Have to go back to 1956 to see such a decline outside of recession.

ClE9s_cUoAEiwAB.jpg
 
Hear ye, hear ye, from the FRB of Atlanta:

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — June 17, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on June 17, unchanged from June 14. Since the previous GDPNow update on Tuesday, the forecast for real consumer spending growth increased from 3.9 percent to 4.1 percent and the forecast for real residential investment growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. These increases were offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter growth from -0.28 percentage points on June 14 to -0.41 percentage points this morning.

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif


Also in the news, housing starts were up 9.5% yoy. Carry on.
 
There are a lot of people living on the edge, doubling up, and bumming off family. Others are selling shit on Ebay, driving for Uber, and doing other gray economy stuff. I remodeled my house over the last 2 years and received discounts from several subs for paying them in cash. Different stuff is going on, and it all adds up, and does not show up in the jobs report.

People also seem to be retiring earlier than ever, regardless of what sacrifices they have to make. I know people who brag that they retired early but drive an old beater, can't eat out unless it's happy hour, have leaks in their roof they can't afford to repair, and have to count their pennies every month. To me, having to do live like that would be worse than almost any type of work. I know a few who are waiting for some relative to die so they can inherit money. Jeez, what kind of life is that?
 
Pulling some miscellaneous charts out reflecting last week's data:

saupload_6a00d83451ddb269e201bb091d2f62970d-pi.jpeg


saupload_6a00d83451ddb269e201b8d2038231970c-pi.png


saupload_6a00d83451ddb269e201b7c879af4f970b-pi.png


I was going to use FRED charts but for some reason the link buttons are not there anymore. I'll be back with more charts.

Oh and on this day, the tenth day of July in the Year of our Lord two thousand and sixteen, the president of these United States is still black. Carry on.
 
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