Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
Here is the latest about recession from INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY. This is an excerpt posted to illustrate the state of economy. Read it twice and grind the facts and dispel your fears and anxieties. Focus on empirical evidence, not how you " feel".
Ronald Reagan once said, facts are stubborn things.
The fact is that real GDP, viewed on a year-over-year basis, increased 2.5% in this yearâs first quarter â the same as in last yearâs fourth. (Year-over-year comparisons, not quarter-to-quarter, are most telling.) Thanks to the weaker dollar, the U.S. factory sector â excluding automakers â isnât doing too badly either. Believe it or not, weâre in the middle of an export boom, with double-digit gains posted the last 16 months in a row. Last weekâs revision of first-quarter (month-to-month) GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.6% was due almost entirely to trade. And despite the slowdown in the overall economy, industrial output is still up 1.3% so far this year â not a sign of disaster. As for jobs, itâs true that, since the start of the year, some 220,000 nonfarm positions have been shed. But even that is moderating. In April, analysts expected nearly 80,000 jobs would be lost; the reality was a far-smaller 20,000. And year over year, the number of jobs is still rising. This is key, since weâve never had a recession in which jobs kept growing.
Yes, unemployment at 5% is up a little more than half a percentage point from its cyclical low. But itâs also below the 5.4% average for the last 20 years. In any other year, this would be called dangerously low. And though weak, aggregate hours worked, another key indicator, are also still on the rise.
Even some of the most troubled parts of the economy show signs of bottoming. New-home sales surprised everyone by rising last month (though theyâre still off sharply from a year ago). Core inflation remains a tame 2%.
And real disposable personal income â what you keep after taxes â is growing at a 1.6% rate. As for the stock market, it still looks like it bottomed two months ago.
In short, while a recession is still possible, it hasnât happened yet â and every day that passes makes it less likely, not more.
Donât get us wrong, the current gloom is not without reason. But itâs just that: gloom, not reality.
Fact is, weâre still in an expansion, albeit a weak one. And with last yearâs Fed rate cuts about to kick in and continued stimulus from President Bushâs tax rebate and cuts, we could see a surprisingly strong economy later this year.
Just donât say we didnât tell you.