No recession according to BEIGE BOOK

[cgroupman]

This is one of the funnier threads, no offense to anyone, but people see only what they want to see. The markets go up, the markets go down. The market is down 7%+ 11 trading days. No matter what the talking heads say, no matter what the beige book says, no matter about the worst housing starts in 16 years, no matter what Bernanke does.

Those who are investor types want to see blue skies ahead. Traders don't really care which way the market goes, and the bears love it when the market goes down faster than it ever goes up.



c

 

[bdon]

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

It is a traders job to use the evidence to come to a conclusion now, not in the future.

Exactly, traders act. Economists sit around drinking their coffee stick their thumb up their butt, waiting for a piece of paper and then debate a while on how to react. Meanwhile the next two quarters are going to fade as a well because of their inability to be proactive.

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from optioncoach:

The Fed also acts to soften the landing of upcoming economic slowdown or stay ahead if it can since rate cut effects lag a bit. So you cannot say the Fed would not bother to lower rates if we were not in a recession.

A recession is a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.

We have not had that happen yet so by definition we are not in a recession. Economic slowdown is not a recession if we are still growing but the rate of growth has slowed.

Just like a housing market in a particular city (like mine in D.C.) has not crashed simply because the growth has slowed, but it is still growing.

But that's only if you believe the 'inflation adjusted' GDP numbers...there's NO WAY we grew at 5% in Q3...no WAY...you only get those numbers when you aren't factoring in inflation..

Just like in the 70's they tinkered with the CPI because it was 'overstating inflation'...it has since been tinkered to the point where it significantly understates inflation..

We have been in a recession since October...

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from PohPoh:

But that's only if you believe the 'inflation adjusted' GDP numbers...there's NO WAY we grew at 5% in Q3...no WAY...you only get those numbers when you aren't factoring in inflation..

Just like in the 70's they tinkered with the CPI because it was 'overstating inflation'...it has since been tinkered to the point where it significantly understates inflation..

We have been in a recession since October...

WE have not been in recession since October. There is not a scintilla of evidence of this. This is just plain old fear mongering and negative outlook where emotional feelings are taking precedence over empirical data.

 

[bdon]

Quote from day7793:

WE have not been in recession since October. There is not a scintilla of evidence of this. This is just plain old fear mongering and negative outlook where emotional feelings are taking precedence over empirical data.

Seriously take a walk around any city in the united states outside of New York and then come back and tell me we're not in a recession. Stick that text book definition and bush manipulated numbers, they'll take you far. I went to college I remember how much I learned from my text books as compared to my first six months in the real world.

 

[PohPoh]

Quote from day7793:

WE have not been in recession since October. There is not a scintilla of evidence of this. This is just plain old fear mongering and negative outlook where emotional feelings are taking precedence over empirical data.

What fear mongering...no one is talking about this...it's totally under the radar..
The Fed says that inflation is well-contained and falling..
but it was never really elevated?
Please..

Dramatic understatement of inflation...pure lies from the Fed and the government...you just have to look beyond the numbers..

Cali unemployment way up...

Stimulus package that needs to be instituted NOW, but yeah, no problems...

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from PohPoh:

What fear mongering...no one is talking about this...it's totally under the radar..
The Fed says that inflation is well-contained and falling..
but it was never really elevated?
Please..

Dramatic understatement of inflation...pure lies from the Fed and the government...you just have to look beyond the numbers..

Cali unemployment way up...

Stimulus package that needs to be instituted NOW, but yeah, no problems...

What proof do you have we are in recession?

Give me some viable empirical data, otherwise it is just your deeply solemn dour outlook on life and beyond. Looks like you need some depression medication. There are more cases of depression in January than any other month.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from bdon:

Seriously take a walk around any city in the united states outside of New York and then come back and tell me we're not in a recession. Stick that text book definition and bush manipulated numbers, they'll take you far. I went to college I remember how much I learned from my text books as compared to my first six months in the real world.

Walking around outside New York is that the way recession is evaluated ?

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

Q4 will be lower than 3, and Q1 will be lower than 4. Looking at all the data sets coming out is enough evidence that we are in a recession now and will be qualified when the Q1 # comes out in April. It is a traders job to use the evidence to come to a conclusion now, not in the future.

Besides, my magic 8-ball said this when I asked about where we are headed:

How about going to a fortune teller and asking them if recession will come? It only cost $25 dollars and you would be done in half hour.

 

[bdon]

Quote from day7793:

Walking around outside New York is that the way recession is evaluated ?

Hey you sit around and wait for six month old numbers to be massaged and told to you by the bush admin. As some guy named Gordon Gekko once said, "sheep get slaughtered".

Here sheepy, sheepy. Herder George has a piece of paper for you...