No , I am not Taleb

SoesWasBetter · Feb 11, 2018

I just talk like him.

His quote "Forecasting is off an average, and average is for academics and other morons.""

Saltynuts · Feb 11, 2018

Wait, he really said that? No shiat???

SoesWasBetter · Feb 11, 2018

Here he explains why if you are right you will lose all your money, and if you are wrong you will lose all your money.

Saltynuts · Feb 12, 2018

Haha thanks Soes! I listened to most of that, but so long. I heard him saying some math, then he said "that's why you never meet any rich forecasters" or something similar. Was that him recognizing his math didn't add up? Or did he say something dumb somewhere else?

Thanks!

JackRab · Feb 12, 2018

He is basically saying that forecasting doesn't work, because the outliers will wipe you out. On average you could be right... but that one tail event mean you will likely loose all.

that's what happened with XIV etc as well... on average it's okay to be short vol... but don't get caught in that tail event.

SoesWasBetter · Feb 12, 2018

Saltynuts said:
Haha thanks Soes! I listened to most of that, but so long. I heard him saying some math, then he said "that's why you never meet any rich forecasters" or something similar. Was that him recognizing his math didn't add up? Or did he say something dumb somewhere else?

Thanks!

Taleb is not a forecaster , and doesn't play one on TV

Chuck Krug · Feb 12, 2018

Ah,but wouldn't the real Taleb say that he was not Taleb, when on elitetrader

Simples · Feb 12, 2018

May I have your attention please?

May I have your attention please?

Will the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up?
I repeat, will the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up?

We're gonna have a problem here.

'Cause I'm Nicholas Taleb,
yes
I'm the real Nassim Taleb
All you other Talebs R just imitating
So won't the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up,
Please stand up, please stand up?

Ha ha
Guess there's a Nassim Taleb in all of us
Fuck it, let's all stand up!

:mad:

tomorton · Feb 12, 2018

Simples said:
May I have your attention please?

May I have your attention please?

Will the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up?
I repeat, will the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up?

We're gonna have a problem here.

'Cause I'm Nicholas Taleb,
yes
I'm the real Nassim Taleb
All you other Talebs R just imitating
So won't the real Nicholas Taleb
please stand up,
Please stand up, please stand up?

Ha ha
Guess there's a Nassim Taleb in all of us
Fuck it, let's all stand up!

Blimey mate, you're Taleb? That was a negative surprise which I honestly didn't see coming and up to now I thought was impossible.
You're a clever bloke, you should give a name to that sort of thing.

Jackpot · Feb 12, 2018

Does Martin Armstrong count a rich forecaster? I believe he called this drop in late December and has also called the actual bottom to be in March. There was a chart somewhere about it as well, need to find it.