No day trader on this planet can make yearly profits

[tiddlywinks]

Yep, when I say "singles" I am not referring to one contract but to modest gainers.

Yes, understood. Say you have an average pnl of $500/trade. Would you (for example) double size so that average becomes $1000/trade?

Yes until slippage becomes material but the ES is liquid enough to handle size.....to a point.

I find it surprising trade size would be dictated by an "expected" gain.

For myself, specific signals along with a volatility factor will dictate size. Using the "singles" metaphor, assuming one of my garden variety signals, volatility all but guarantees a single, so **IF** high volatility is present in those cases, increased size is used. With my less general (i.e. much more specific) signals, volatility (or expectation of) is included in the signal already.
I NEVER add size for PnL metrics. For day-trading indexes, my vanilla size is 3. Increased size is multiples of 3. I am also all-in-all-out, no scaling in or out.

I am not challenging or suggesting anything. More likely I've glossed over or misinterpreted some part of the discussion.

Trade On!

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I would be lost in the Pit but you can get a good idea by reading Marty's book...Pit Bull, good stuff.

Good recommendation, will read it. I always thought their edge was front running.

 

[speedo]

I find it surprising trade size would be dictated by an "expected" gain.

For myself, specific signals along with a volatility factor will dictate size. Using the "singles" metaphor, assuming one of my garden variety signals, volatility all but guarantees a single, so **IF** high volatility is present in those cases, increased size is used. With my less general (i.e. much more specific) signals, volatility (or expectation of) is included in the signal already.
I NEVER add size for PnL metrics. For day-trading indexes, my vanilla size is 3. Increased size is multiples of 3. I am also all-in-all-out, no scaling in or out.

I am not challenging or suggesting anything. More likely I've glossed over or misinterpreted some part of the discussion.

Trade On!

It's true that trading dozens of contracts in this environment of 2-300 size levels is more problematic than at times when there are 4 figure levels but only slippage will tell you when you are too big....that and margin capital but that comfort level and risk tolerance varies considerably among traders.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I find it surprising trade size would be dictated by an "expected" gain.

For myself, specific signals along with a volatility factor will dictate size. Using the "singles" metaphor, assuming one of my garden variety signals, volatility all but guarantees a single, so **IF** high volatility is present in those cases, increased size is used. With my less general (i.e. much more specific) signals, volatility (or expectation of) is included in the signal already.
I NEVER add size for PnL metrics. For day-trading indexes, my vanilla size is 3. Increased size is multiples of 3. I am also all-in-all-out, no scaling in or out.

I am not challenging or suggesting anything. More likely I've glossed over or misinterpreted some part of the discussion.

Trade On!

Good question.

The reason I am trading a piddling amount right now is because I want to know whether my research actually works in real life. It seems to.

I do size with volatility but what other signals do you use?

 

[tiddlywinks]

I do size with volatility but what other signals do you use?

I am reliant on volume and price-pane geometry.
For me, volatility is present in volume, and manifests itself in the price-pane.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I am reliant on volume and price-pane geometry.
For me, volatility is present in volume, and manifests itself in the price-pane.

What is volume and price-pane geometry? I agree volume can be a reflection of volatility but I don't use it as such.

 

[trader1974]

Speedo, the 3 operations you took, are 3 individual operations or are the 3 part of a single operation?

 

[trader1974]

Wouldn't it be better to perform only the first operation but with triple the contracts?

 

[speedo]

View attachment 213856 Speedo, the 3 operations you took, are 3 individual operations or are the 3 part of a single operation?

Separate, I don't know when a move is going to run. If it does it often gives a number of entries (like the example), if it doesn't, I don't worry about it.

 

[trader1974]

For this to work, there must be momentum, otherwise everything is noise, you use some indicator to measure the momentum or you simply look at the price range