No Bullets....vix At 16 And Collapsing

Quote from Mecro:

Wait a minute,

After the tech crash in 00 till 02, it was a bear market with sick volume and great volatility. Same traders that cannot make money today used to make great money. Overall, those years up to 2003 were good.
So this has nothing to do with a falling market or a rising market.

This has to do with dead volatility, low volume and bad ranges over the past two and a half weeks. I personally had a great Jan and a great first week of Feb. And then this dead market comes around.

You cannot even base anything regarding the overall direction of the market from this past month of Feb. It's slow, low volume, low volatility. If it stays like this, noone is going to blow out, traders will just slowly fall out. Volume at prop firms will fall, traders will quit for new ventures or low level jobs and thats it. There isn't anything good about it even for super traders. Less smaller hack traders means less money to take. Seriously, it gets so boring I see guys almost falling asleep.

Dustin :

I'm not sure to what time frame you are referring to but this thread was started due to the crappy turn this market took in Feb. If you made such great money this past few weeks, you should have been a millionaire from January alone. So hypothetically if you did accomplish that, why would you consider this a great month/time?
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So, what are you guys trading that makes it so horrible? But if you look at the charts of a random sample of stocks there are still some movement. Maybe not a lot.

Do you trade the same crappy stocks over and over? Even though it's in a tight trading range? Or do you trade different stocks trying to find a good mover?

What are your hold times? a few minutes? Longer? Shorter? NYSE? Naz? I like to get a handle on this situation.

Just curious..
 
History shows that the third leg down in a bear market is always the most wicked. Looking back at those third legs to the downside, they seem to be slow grinders, where everybody is bullish the whole way down. LOOK AT JAPAN!!! The volatility on the way down SUCKED!!!!!!!! There were times of great volatility, but not like the first leg down in the bear market. It was a slow grinder. IT CAN HAPPEN HERE IN THE US TOO.

The first leg in a bear market always shows the most volatility, and the third leg is usually a slow grinder.

A lot of you guys have to stop complaining about no vol. Just shake off your emotions. Get rid of the emotions, and do something about it. If you think there is no volatility, it means that really soon the vol will pick up. Buy some volatility!!!

Buy straddles and strangles, look into convertible bond arbitrage!!! There are so many ways to make big big big bucks when the vols go to shit like they have. When the vol pop comes, nobody will be ready and expecting it except for a handful of traders. Don't give up and whine and complain. You have to get up and ride after you fall of the horse.
 
Once again it always depends on who you talk to and how they trade. Although I moved on to futures I know several traders who still trade stocks (since most on this thread seem to trade stocks). Two or 3 of them were up 50-70K last month and up 30-40K this month so that tells me there is still money in the market some where. Keep in mind though that these traders trade 5-10K blocks so these results will probably be near impossible for a day trader trading 1000 shares at a time. However I brought this up to hopefully encourage those who are having a tough time right now.
 
Quote from misctrader:

So, what are you guys trading that makes it so horrible? But if you look at the charts of a random sample of stocks there are still some movement. Maybe not a lot.

Do you trade the same crappy stocks over and over? Even though it's in a tight trading range? Or do you trade different stocks trying to find a good mover?

What are your hold times? a few minutes? Longer? Shorter? NYSE? Naz? I like to get a handle on this situation.

Just curious..
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Im NYSE, Im looking into Naz and I also do some options. I think I've had better % returns on options this month but Im still learning them so I do little # contracts.

In NYSE terms, lack of volume and real buyers/sellers means more specialist interference and day traders bringing more and more noise.
You cannot win against the specialists. If they have nobody else to screw but the day-traders, man you're gonna churn and churn.

Ranges are pathetic on some of these stocks. Stocks that used to move points now move like 30 cents at best. One stock that used to move 1-2 points, I have seen sit in a 2 cent range for 5 hours today. I'm really not exaggerating. I see 5 cent ranges that hold for at least half a day in at least 1/3 of the stocks I scan.

Yeah there are movers, just look at the Dow components. I try them here and there. Very dangerous.
I've see some weird shit go down lately. Seriously shady practices by specialists. I know it's not just me cause every other NYSE trader I have asked have said the same. These mofos are digging their own graves with the current controversy above their heads. Talk about crappy fills. I had a 100 share market order held today for like 1 min by a stock that did like 4.5 mil volume for the day. Now thats just sad. Not like I had a good fill, this prick took me down like 10 cents. For a measly 10 bucks? I did not send this order into a spread or crossed/locked market. I know how to read the prints, there was no big overload of orders whatsoever. This 100 share fill was just pathetic. The specialists are truly making whatever advantages NYSE system has to offer go to absolute hell.

I hold stocks for whatever time period. Anywhere from 10 seconds to 4 hours or even a day. I've been cutting my size a lot. Cut my daily volume by like 80%. I'm lowering my risk level more. I can still pull out sick trades but 70% of the time only on 100-200 shares. Any more than that, and weird things start to happen.

You can still make decent money trading. But the bottom line is that this market took a turn for worst right now. If it stays like this or gets even less volatile there will need to be a serious shake out of day-traders and possibly even prop firms. No bullet substitute is gonna help any trader right now. This is when patience, restrain and discipline will save you. Know how to take your money and keep it.
 
Quote from cornholetrading:

Once again it always depends on who you talk to and how they trade. Although I moved on to futures I know several traders who still trade stocks (since most on this thread seem to trade stocks). Two or 3 of them were up 50-70K last month and up 30-40K this month so that tells me there is still money in the market some where. Keep in mind though that these traders trade 5-10K blocks so these results will probably be near impossible for a day trader trading 1000 shares at a time. However I brought this up to hopefully encourage those who are having a tough time right now.
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Hmm I know traders who can pull 100k a month and even more (not sure bout this month). But apparently 5-8 years experience really helps. Too bad it can't accumulate over a week or two. And when you had 1999-2000 to put a few mil in the bank, it's just a little easier to flip around 5k-10k blocks.

In your own example thats a 40-43% drop. Thats pretty extreme for one month.

Of course there is money in the market and always will be. MMs and specialists will always make their absurd sums. What the hell does that mean to us? That the possibility is always there. Good luck.
 
Who the hell is making $50K+ per month day trading?

Maybe position traders make these figures, but I don't know anybody making this kind of loot that day trades. These people could be lying about how much they make!

It has been my experience on Wall St. that a lot of traders lie about how well they are doing.

If I get my ass kicked, I tell everybody that I got my ass kicked. I dont' lie.

So if somebody is saying that they are banging out $70K/month, something is very fishy because there is no way that can be sustained without a potential blowout waiting to happen that will create a $500K draw down one month and blow out the profits.
 
Average net 2 points/day * 25 ES contracts * 20 days/month = $50K

Not saying it can be done consistently (or that just anyone can do it), just that it's not out of the realm of possibility.
 
Quote from Reitberg:

..... ... something is very fishy because there is no way that can be sustained without a potential blowout waiting to happen that will create a $500K draw down one month and blow out the profits.
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Well .... some traders actually do make money and I doubt they would stay in the business for years and years if they were not making more than average returns on their time and money: nobody would stay in the trading business if they were just making employee money.
 
Traders who aren't doing well post this sort of stuff in order to find out whether or not other traders are doing as badly as they are (and, of course, hoping that that's the case, since that would suggest that the fault is not theirs but the "market").

Eventually, those who succeed have figured out that it doesn't make the slightest bit of difference how well or badly anybody else is doing. All that matters is one's own results.

Perhaps the most common reason for this difficulty is that the trader has a particular strategy or style and that particular strategy or style isn't working. Therefore, he concludes, nothing works. But rather than come up with a particular set of rules and demand that the market behave according to those rules, the winner will focus instead on exactly what it is that the market is doing and either come up with a revised or new set of rules and take what the market is willing to give him or quit the field entirely until his style/strategy is back in vogue.

In a phrase, it's not the market; it's you.
 
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