Hi all,
I'm curious if anyone have experience with this course and also comments on if this type of analysis is useful for a market such as the ES?
http://www.nobsdaytrading.com/
I, myself, have avoided 'tape reading' on ES since I'm skeptical of it's value in this day and age. For the same reason I'm skeptical towards inferring to much information from volume readings.
This relates particularly to index futures which correlates with the underlying index and is routinely arbitraged and spreaded against other markets. Not to mention it's main purpose which is to serve as a hedging vehicle for the underlying index.
All this makes me cautious if the resting bids and offers can provide any insights about both what's actually going on at any given moment and what's going to happen in the future (next 5 seconds or next hour).
I have my own system which I rely on, but don't know much about order flow and consider it an area I should probably study up on. I just remain skeptical of it's actual value.
From what I'm reading it seems like most people are very happy about the course material and the guy seems like a great guy. No claims of a holy grail or anything and it seems very honest. The price ain't that bad either.
Thanks in advance for any comments. Let's keep it civil.
Howard
In closing, orderflow software (and accompanying distinctions) is worthy of consideration and can be an informative piece to the market puzzle.
It’ll all come down to how you apply it.
There's a quote in his basic course that always stood out to me: "I cannot guarantee that you are going to make money trading, but if you read this book and pay attention to what I'm saying and start trying to anticipate what the big money is going to do, you will have a really good shot."
I think some people misunderstand, and think he is selling a system. If that was his intention then I think he did a really poor job. There's just not enough information in that book to read the setups, and then go out and start being profitable. All he does is teach order flow as it occurs in treasuries. Nowhere else have I seen as clear a description of how the games in the level 2 work. It gives you enough to understand what you are looking at, and then try to build your own trading plan from there. For that alone I think his course is a must read. It's something you can read over and over again to gain insight, even if you don't end up scalping.
But you got to understand that there's more to it than that. A lot of discretionary traders might not even be able to explain how they do it. There have been times when I saw a wall of orders and they bounced right off it. There have been times that I watched it slowly creep up as all the offers jumped out of the way. As others have already said I've seen it go up on negative delta, and down on positive delta. You'll notice that some of his signals are mirror images of each other. One is when the liquidity holds, and one is where the market orders goes through it. The big players have a lot of ways they can play it, and they'll go with the way that gives them the best chance of success. How do you know ahead of time what they are going to do? Sometimes if not most of the time there's just no way to know until it has already happened.
That is not to say that there is no edge in order flow reading. You can look at the jigsaw leaderboards if you want proof that people do make money from it. I'm just saying that the course alone won't get you there. Most are still going to end up in that 90% that lose. The course just gives you a fighting chance.
I mainly scalp in CL w/ 5 ticks stop & my trades are very fast (around 1-2min) & target predetermined. I currently start to work to embed my runner w/ my scalper & all my tools are still at the scalper level (10s). We are completely at different views hence my set ups might not fit w/ your method & time frames.
1) I use DOM immediately before & after entry
2) I use market depth to monitor level of buy/sell resting orders on book
3) I use bid/ask volume setting up in a way so when market orders being hit, it will show unmistakably.
4) I use volume profile w/ variable time frames to see concentration of unfortunate people.
5) I don't use footprint whatsoever. It tends to cloudy all other information which I get through the 4s above in a simple way.
That's as much I can elaborate. Think about it then you will see the key is imbalance of orders. And it's a waste of time & resources if trading time frame is long. How long is long? Ain't my problem.
Can be or is...?
The holy grail is within the person in the mirror. ‘Is’ is the realization of this simple fact. ‘Can be’ is for those not quite there yet.
Are you using any particular orderflow software yourself? I've looked briefly into the Jigsaw DOM and it does seem like a huge improvement upon most DOMS (in my case: Ninja's).
I’ve explored OFA, Bookmap and have a lifetime license with Jigsaw. It’s installed on a fresh i7 laptop. I admit to having a quirk in that I started my computing on a Macintosh, went to Windows due to being in a corporate environments and made a return to Aapl with a 2008 mbp. I now have a bunch of Mac gear and find it difficult to return to a windows environment. It’s been difficult to program VBA in a mac environment but the OS is a class above MS . I also do not want to support MS subscription model for bloatware.
I was intrigued with Jigsaw enough to invest in new hardware to support it.
Peter’s training materials offer a lot of value and a beginner in orderflow would receive a lot of benefit from it.
With that said, It’s not in my production environment atm, mainly due to desk space issues. However, I also have the price squawk integration and am looking forward to playing with it when I have the time, focus and larger desk.
My current setup is with two monitors. The setup is to monitor coarse to fine detail as my eyes sweep from left to right. The left monitor has two tabs, one is a tri-pane view of the ES monthly, weekly, daily reviewed prior to the start of a trading day. The other is a tri-pane of ES 30m, 5m and 2m YM.
The tri-panes are maximized to one time-frame at a time. The 5m is the primary window by which annotating and logging are done.
The chart is annotated and used in combination with a paper log by which 21 logical operations are done mentally on each 5m bar and recorded by hand. There are 81 bars to a day (without carryover). This paper log is also consulted with a small 1/2” three-ringed binder that has lookup tables for various volume sequences that have been catalogued to define progression of trend, trend types and turn types. The purpose of this is to 'know that I know' where I am in relation to current trend progression and development.
The right monitor has my broker’s platform which 5 windows arranged in an order that supports visual ‘sweeping’. The DOM is in the center. To the right of the DOM are two T&S streams, 1 unfiltered, the other filtered on 50-100 contracts.
To the left of the DOM are two OTR charts. One is the 5m ES and the other 2m YM.
The jigsaw software would take the place of all the windows in my right monitor with the exception of the OTR charts.
It provides other bells and whistles which I have yet to explore.
So in my environment, determining context requires a simultaneous top-down and bottom-up situational awareness.
My operating points are:
1) be in the market
2) be on the right side of the market
In terms of orderflow software, at the time of purchase, I was looking for something that would distinguish variance in market orders at any given moment. Jigsaw does do this.
As for the book, I'm well into it and find that I already know a lot of the material intuitively already. I've probably picked up a few bits and pieces over the year on the subject although I haven't studied the DOM extensively in isolation...
The author seems to be very insistent on that scalping or order flow trading is the only thing that works and is very dismissive of algorithmic trading, charts or anything that isn't pure order flow trading. I of course flat out disagree with that and find it a bit off putting.
I suppose when anyone has success at something there’s a certain natural attachment that arises. I’m more in the camp of every tool has a purpose and specific circumstances for it’s formal use and it’s creative informal use. Every tool can either be an asset or liability when it comes to extracting the full offer of the market. It all depends on the hands and differentiated minds that wield them.
But I will read on keeping an open mind...