No Branding - Like A Rat!!

[piezoe]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

This is my issue with the trade, and why I don't use it. A daily low in how I define it is the low that was put in during the day. You don't know this low until the day is over. I assume the next time period, you could use the previous day's low as the daily low. If one actually knows what is the absolute high or low for the day and is 100% sure it will not be breached, you could just trade off of that low or high.

Precisely!

 

[TheRumpledOne]

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1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

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PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from piezoe:

Define daily low.

Lowest price of the day AT THE MOMENT.

After the day is over, you will know the lowest price of the day.

During the day, you know the current daily low price. Of course, price may go lower but one of the current daily lows will be THE low of the day.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from bigarrow:

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

so if it gets to 20 pips of low and fluctuates you can enter and reenter with loss after loss in a choppy market or in a trending market where there are new lows all day then each new low being another loss if the market doesn't reverse.
Do you have any stats on this rumpled one or statements showing how you are fairing using this. Seems like guessing to me but maybe I'm missing something.

Elitetrader decided to delete the original thread that contained stats. If I post charts showing stats, I will be accused of "branding".

If check the thread from time to time, you can develop your own stats of how well this works.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from jem:

I am not arguing with the idea that trades should be based on experience - whether live trading or research, I just thought the idea of stats being superior to probability was odd.
Probablility sugggests stats within a context of why it is happening. i will take context over stats alone anytime.

lets say you find a trade that may go on for for months during a bull market... say you find out on average tech stocks go up on tuesday.

I would like to know if they are going up on tuesday because fidelity select electronics puts new money to work on tuesdays.

so I would then know unless something scary happens on a thursday or friday... there is a good chance by orders go in on mondays and I would anticipate the trade to continue to work.

stats plus context equals probablility - imo given tro's quote.

It wasn't my intention to say stats are superior over probability, that would be comparing apples to oranges.

The outcome of a roll of the dice has probability. The probability doesn't change.

The outcome of a trade doesn't not have probability. You can determine statistically what the outcome may be but that is not the same as probability. Close but not the same. And that is why the RAT beat the YALE STUDENTS.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from jem:

great quote. I will use this. However, IMO if you believe this quote, you should not trade as you probably do not know when you have have an edge.

The opposite is true - you trade when you have a statistical edge. That is what DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT is based on. When you trade within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low on certain pairs, price is more likely to close 20 pips or more above the ACTUAL daily low than not.

A few minutes ago, I posted a chart showing the AUDUSD within 20 pips of the current daily low. Now is it closer to 50 pips above the current daily low. That was an opportunity to make 30 pips or more.

The easiest way to understand this is to graph close - low on a daily chart. That is the bottom wick. The wick size is usually larger than 20 pips.

 

[ElectricSavant]

How can you have meaningful stats when you do not call targets?...

ES

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

Elitetrader decided to delete the original thread that contained stats. If I post charts showing stats, I will be accused of "branding".

If check the thread from time to time, you can develop your own stats of how well this works.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from atticus:

IIRC you mention entry parameters without concise exits. That's not a system. You have like 400 "systems" running and I assume using what is currently working to define entries and leaving the exits to the discretion of the user.

Not sure where you got the 400 number.

The only forex trades I make are based on RAT REVERSALS or BUY ZONES.

Yes, each trader should have their own EXIT PLAY BOOK to know exactly when to exit.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from piezoe:

You are correct Jem.
This quote is correct. The conclusion is wrong. I mean the rumpled one's conclusion "There is no probability in trading, only statistics.".

The Rumpledones conclusion is, of course, nonsense.

"I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."

- Dr. S. Sivaraman

 

[TheRumpledOne]

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"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

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1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

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PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.