No Brainer Breakouts or How An Early Bird Catches A Worm

[JSSPMK]

Quote from shikantaza:

How many times are you prepared to double up before you toss the towel or your account blows up?.

Great question!

My answer is - it depends on chosen range & where you took that range from.

I took 10.25 which is quite wide for ES, it meant having to wait till 20.5 NET points. A lot can happen in the meantime, I agree.

But let's think for a moment. Reduce range down to 2 ES points. You will not find a chart that shows ES yo-yoing within a 2 point range enough times to blow your account. But, initial stake has to be very low in relation to your trading capital. It's a slow climber this one.

There is another point worth mentioning. There is nothing wrong in taking profit a tad early or if you feel your capital is at risk taking profit at x 1 the range, not waiting till x 2. If you are familiar with ES price action, then you will have to see that this is pretty stealth tight.

P.S. "where you took this range from" - If you do this intraday. Would you take a range just before open or during lunch time?

 

[Stok]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Look at this chart. Imagine the pink vertical line (far left) is 4.30pm EST that's when range starts. All them bars are 30m ones. At open price went down and started going up. The first reaction Lo became the red line (go short there). Because price never went higher than the opening price we take opening price as current reaction Hi in that range & it is the green line (go long). Yellow line is the target. It is whatever the range is between red & green lines x 2. For instance Hi 1000 Lo 990 Target 1020 for longs & 970 for shorts.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2622751>

NIN TY!

Ok, so you are not defining Hi/Lo based on a certain amount of time....you are defining it was the first swing (or reaction) low and the first swing (reaction) hi as your range..correct? Thus it could happen within a couple of hours or maybe 5-6 hours...right?

Good job btw.

 

[shikantaza]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Great question!

My answer is - it depends on chosen range & where you took that range from.

I took 10.25 which is quite wide for ES, it meant having to wait till 20.5 NET points. A lot can happen in the meantime, I agree.

But let's think for a moment. Reduce range down to 2 ES points. You will not find a chart that shows ES yo-yoing within a 2 point range enough times to blow your account. But, initial stake has to be very low in relation to your trading capital. It's a slow climber this one.

There is another point worth mentioning. There is nothing wrong in taking profit a tad early or if you feel your capital is at risk taking profit at x 1 the range, not waiting till x 2. If you are familiar with ES price action, then you will have to see that this is pretty stealth tight.

P.S. "where you took this range from" - If you do this intraday. Would you take a range just before open or during lunch time?

Let's not wake up any more fools. Please close the thread a.s.a.p.

You can't expect the holy grail to stay holy with all those fools drinking on it.

In fact, you should consider deleting the whole thread.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Stok:

Ok, so you are not defining Hi/Lo based on a certain amount of time....you are defining it was the first swing (or reaction) low and the first swing (reaction) hi as your range..correct? Thus it could happen within a couple of hours or maybe 5-6 hours...right?

Good job btw.

Correctemundo & TY!

 

[JSSPMK]

I overslept, shoulda been 1064-1062.25, will make it 1064-1061.50

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I overslept, shoulda been 1064-1062.25, will make it 1064-1061.50

Edited: Range=2.5, Short target 1057.25 & Long target 1069.00

"Target is at least 2 times stop/reverse after hours range" from 1st post.

Today we have 2 primary data reports out, each can shift a market substantially. Range is pretty tight today, making targets of 5 ES points & we haven't really shifted much so far, perfect.

I am increasing targets to x 4 today, making target for Long 1074 & for Short 1051.5 (or thereabouts due to an increase)

 

[shikantaza]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I overslept, shoulda been 1064-1062.25, will make it 1064-1061.50

So basically you are saying that any range on any timeframe on any chart is a good range to start?.

That would be worthy of a Nobel Prize...if the Nobel committee were not a bunch of self-entitled socialists.

I have enjoyed our conversation, but now I must depart. Sake calls, and I like to start drinking early on fridays.

I still think you should delete the thread. The holy grail is holy because the search is a personal one. Making it public, destroys the holiness.

I must however point out that the high of the range is 1064.50, and these types of inaccuracies can cost you dearly.

 

[Now is Now]

Interesting morning just the same ,as by my count, that from the time you published your numbers we are now on our 5th level due to the narrow market activity within the range.

I am assuming the numbers are in play immediately they are published.

Personally, I would be happy with a set multiple regardless of the width and move on to next day or new set of numbers.

NiN

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from shikantaza:

So basically you are saying that any range on any timeframe on any chart is a good range to start?.

That would be worthy of a Nobel Prize...if the Nobel committee were not a bunch of self-entitled socialists.

I have enjoyed our conversation, but now I must depart. Sake calls, and I like to start drinking early on fridays.

I still think you should delete the thread. The holy grail is holy because the search is a personal one. Making it public, destroys the holiness.

Adios amigo, you kept me entertained

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from Now is Now:

Interesting morning just the same ,as by my count, that from the time you published your numbers we are now on our 5th level due to the narrow market activity within the range.

I am assuming the numbers are in play immediately they are published.

Personally, I would be happy with a set multiple regardless of the width and move on to next day or new set of numbers.

NiN

6th attempt at the moment, another 3 to reach equivalent of under 1 ES contract point value.