Quote from cdcaveman:
haha obviously thats not what i mean.. your selling the tails in this strategy.. so its best to do it in times when tails are overvalued.. and on indices.. this strategy doesn't work great as a contiguous roll type income strategy.. no matter what you have been advertised..
Thanks, yes, that makes sense. I don't have a rolling strategy in mind. What I'm looking for is how to see a timed position though, especially early in its life.
Here is what I mean. Suppose the underlying has just had an impressive sell-off or run-up and it's now at the point where I believe it has to at least slow down or pause for a couple weeks. Basically, I have a weak directional opinion. Also thanks to all the hype or fear, there's some good IV in those options which I expect should help. For example, we had a run from 20's into 40's on some good news and bounced off 48 once or twice. All the good news is now out, looks like some profit taking is going on and I expect it will consolidate for some time. So I'm considering a 52.50-55 bear call spread a month out.
Basically, I'm looking for a convincing plan for a credit vertical like this to deal with the large potential loss compared to the credit while giving the trade the room to move. Suppose I took .50 in credit and now looking at 2.00 maximum loss at expiration. I can imagine 2 basic styles:
1. Have a money management stop relative to the credit. Say, close once the loss is the same as the expected gain (1.00 debit in this example). The problem is the aggravation of being stopped out for a loss by a false breakout. Especially early on further from expiration when the P/L curve is flatter so the stop may be hit by a move that does not violate my directional opinion.
2. Size the position so even the worst outcome is acceptable relative to the account size, and just let it ride. Avoids the aggravation of losing to false breakouts, but produces smaller trades which can be a problem if the commissions have a per trade minimum. So we start losing more to commissions.
So, any words of wisdom on how to approach this beast? Is it simply choosing what makes me less unhappy--false breakouts or large commissions on small trades? Is there some smart middle ground, say moving the money management stop over time?