Nite Session U.S. Index Futures

[osorico]

Quote from osorico:

Tues, 6/5/07

Approx 8:00 AM est
...
Right now, FESX is following US, but it is possible, FESX could lend support to the US opening, since FESX has reached a significant POC area. If not, and 4500 breaks, there is alot of big air... targets would be 4475 and 4437. Will monitor closely throughout the AM. Could be very nice trading.

Osorico

FWIW;

FESX has challenged the 4500 area within the last 5m or so. US markets have FOLLOWED suit and have made fresh LODs.

Osorico

 

[osorico]

Quote from osorico:

...
Next weeks EC rate hike should create some very good trading opps, both US and abroad. It will determine whether or not the USD as a "reason" for US markets rise will instead become a catalyst for downside. jmho

Osorico
...

Quote from osorico:
...
If not, and 4500 breaks, there is alot of big air... targets would be 4475 and 4437.
...
Osorico

Thus far, the rate hike has become a catalyst. FESX broke 4500 yest, and has as of this morning hit and traded through 4475 target, next 4437 and 4418 if selling continues.

Osorcio

 

[osorico]

Quote from osorico:

Thus far, the rate hike has become a catalyst. FESX broke 4500 yest, and has as of this morning hit and traded through 4475 target, next 4437 and 4418 if selling continues.

Osorico

4437 traded through. Next 4418, and 4398 if selling persists.

Osorico

 

[osorico]

Quote from osorico:

4437 traded through. Next 4418, and 4398 if selling persists.

Osorico

4418 hit. Don't know how I will work with this though, as this is technically after-hours. I use Frankfurt exchange hours for my analysis.

Since Im still fairly green with FESX, I may re-think my usage of the Frankfurt exchange as basis of RTH. For me, much will depend on a 15m volume analysis.

4398 next.

Osorico

 

[osorico]

I performed a simple volume analysis by time of day in 15 minute increments. IQFeed provides approximately 8 months of INTRADAY data, starting 10/3/06. I will use this as the starting point for adding additional data monthly.

Based on the analysis, I am very comfortable using the Frankfurt Stock Exchange market hours for technical analysis.

Osorico

 

[Pekelo]

Man, the indeces peaked at 3 am!! It was obvious we would gap up after yesterday, but who the hell is watching the futures at 3 am??

 

[vertigo3]

I was watching at 3:00am.
Osorico, this is something I wanted to point out to you, although I don't know whether you would find it useful. I find it pretty amazing, but truly dangerous in the thinly traded overnight markets.
Yesterday we had a down day with a late (pre 4:00pm) recovery.
After yesterday's ES action up to 4:00pm, needed to see the low of the last 2 hours of trading (ES) retested, sometimes it happens in the early overnight session, but all I need to see is that last 2 hour low (within +/-3 tics) retested post 4:00pm, It did that yesterday around 4:08pm. After that, price can grind higher.
Where can price go after the first part of this pattern unfolds? Price can then move to retest the h of the last two hours of trading (RTH), that was 1521.75 for yesterday's session.
Overnight high was 1523.75.
I have seen this pattern before.

 

[osorico]

Firstly, I want to say this journal needs to be renamed to Nite Session Index Futures. For me, FESX (DJ Euro Stoxx 50) has become king for overnite/US pre-market futures trading.

So who watches futures at 3am? Well I agree Pekelo, US index futures SUCK at that time. But that is the open for FESX and other European bourses and futures.

Those instruments are not similar at all to US futures at that time. FESX does not suffer from low volume, as evidenced from my 15m volume analysis. At 3am forward there is no way FESX can be pushed around with a handful of contracts, like the US indexes. On a daily basis, FESX is MORE liquid then ES, trading well over 1M contracts a day.

So who watches futures at 3am? US-based, European instrument traders.

Osorico

 

[osorico]

Quote from vertigo3:

I was watching at 3:00am.
Osorico, this is something I wanted to point out to you, although I don't know whether you would find it useful. I find it pretty amazing, but truly dangerous in the thinly traded overnight markets.
Yesterday we had a down day with a late (pre 4:00pm) recovery.
After yesterday's ES action up to 4:00pm, needed to see the low of the last 2 hours of trading (ES) retested, sometimes it happens in the early overnight session, but all I need to see is that last 2 hour low (within +/-3 tics) retested post 4:00pm, It did that yesterday around 4:08pm. After that, price can grind higher.
Where can price go after the first part of this pattern unfolds? Price can then move to retest the h of the last two hours of trading (RTH), that was 1521.75 for yesterday's session.
Overnight high was 1523.75.
I have seen this pattern before.

Something to keep in mind, at least this time, is the fact today is rollover. Rollover skews (and screws) many index futures traders.

You can't make the 3am thinly traded and dangerous argument for instruments such as FESX.

Osorico [doing some FESX rollover homework now]

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Pekelo:

Man, the indeces peaked at 3 am!! It was obvious we would gap up after yesterday, but who the hell is watching the futures at 3 am??

Quote from volente_00:

Confucius say 3:00 a.m est is where the money is at.