Nikkei/SP500/Nasdaq

[tampa]

Quote from Corso482:

the nikkei didn't have a war to factor in

Could there be a difference between a "war", and a stupid military adventure?

Wars usually involve an opponent who can strike back - stupid military adventures usually only involve getting bogged down because you didn't really know what you were doing, and your arrogance led you to believe that it would be a cake walk.

 

[swoop[TR]]

The eye likes to see what it wants to see (at least the brain processes the information that way).

A downtrend is a downtrend, a better way to see if they are really the same would be to run a regression between the two and a correlation analysis.

There are similarities but not as many as you would think.
Good job though dustin.

 

[Dustin]

Quote from daniel_m:


just to make sure i'm understanding this correctly, the starting position for the nikkei, in your graphs, is sometime in 89 and for the US markets about 3/2000?

if that's the case, then holy smokes, the similarity is beyond eery!

Sorry, I was out of town...yes you have it right.

 

[Dustin]

Quote from Dustin:
1-30-03
Every 6 months or so I have updated this comparison chart of the three indexes. The chart shows the indexes as a % lost from the top of each bubble. The similarities are still striking...

According to Nikkei we are actually in for a decent rally in the next 6 months...only to be followed by further downside.

OK time for a 6 month update. The charts are still matching up nearly perfectly, and if history keeps repeating itself we are in for some fun swings over the next year. Timber...!

 

[GapTrader]

This is a very interesting chart. If I interpret it correctly, the US stock market should be in for a downturn sometime in the Fall. Also, what I find interesting about the US stock market bubble is that it is taking much longer for it to unwind (at least the S&P/DOW portion, not the Naz) than it did after the 1929 crash. Also, this exact same chart was shown in one of the recent Forbes issues (I think the one that was out before the current one).