Nikkei Down at open...

Where are we headed this week?

  • Significant Downside

    Votes: 17 63.0%

  • Consolidation

    Votes: 3 11.1%

  • Rebound off this support level

    Votes: 7 25.9%
  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .
Quote from Mike805:

... In contrast, a lot of traders on this forum are forecasting a more serious decline (including myself) in the very near future. This could a very telling contrarian indicator - an upcoming bounce - possibly... I cannot decide if I'll be putting any of my money behind that idea though :). At least not today...
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I think the challenge for most people is adjusting their outlook to be aligned with a new trend, whether bullish or bearish. From my observation, early on in new trends people are not willing to believe what they are seeing.

During the last 3 plus year rally in stocks, people have been (correctly) bullish for weeks and weeks on end, yet the market kept going up. If the global trend in stocks has truly changed to be bearish, (and looking around the world I think it has), I wouldn't worry about too many people being bearish, because the bears are the ones positioned on the correct side of the market. Like the bulls were in the bull market, they can be right for a long, long time - longer than anyone thinks is possible.
 
Quote from Quark:

I think the challenge for most people is adjusting their outlook to be aligned with a new trend, whether bullish or bearish. From my observation, early on in new trends people are not willing to believe what they are seeing.

During the last 3 plus year rally in stocks, people have been (correctly) bullish for weeks and weeks on end, yet the market kept going up. If the global trend in stocks has truly changed to be bearish, (and looking around the world I think it has), I wouldn't worry about too many people being bearish, because the bears are the ones positioned on the correct side of the market. Like the bulls were in the bull market, they can be right for a long, long time - longer than anyone thinks is possible.
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Quark,

You made a very GOOD point. I think at the TURNING point when the trend changes that's the hardest for people to believe/accept the new reality. They still think things will be the way they were forever.

I must admit, I kept my bullish stance a bit too long. I wasted opportunities. I know I didn't get hurt as bad as people who bought the high and HELD. DOH! But I could have been more opportunistic and shorted the hell out of the Nikkei and make a nice sum of $. Oh well. :( better next time.

But even as close to the short-term bottom as I were yesterday after all those waiting, it was STILL one scary RIDE. In fact, today opened like almost another 300pts lower from where I got in(which I thought was pretty low alread) WTF?! Luckily, it came back.

It could have easily gone the other way then I would've been really hurt. Even as close as one day off can be scary. That tells you you never know how low is low.

But luckily, I held and now everything came back and some. Hopefully it will continue to do so the remaining time. If not, I'll get out. I know I was bailed out by the trading gods. Can't happen all the time.

When there's real capitulation, then I'll get back in. But now I just want to get out of this a bit ahead. hehe.

*WHEW*

99
 
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