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Nikkei down 30% in 7 months...
- Thread starter Longhorns
- Start date
I'm also bullish in the long-term. IMO the risk of permanent capital loss from these levels is practically zero, the worst case is a move to say 10,000 giving a 20% quotational loss, but then it is most likely to bottom there and recover, pursuing the same upmove to the same old highs, just from a lower level.
So, as long as you can sit on your hands and ideally buy more during a 20% move down, it's a fantastic long-term buying opportunity.
So, as long as you can sit on your hands and ideally buy more during a 20% move down, it's a fantastic long-term buying opportunity.
I'm not trying to predict anything here, despite having lived in Japan and showing a little knowledge for the Japanese economy. I do not think your risk is endlessly great. But you could be discouraged with your investment in the near future and are initiating an unnecessary exposure. An unstable economic situation does affect their growth potential just as well because they rely on exports.
Yet, we have no signs that they are experiencing a turnaround in the economy since the real estate crisis began in the mid 90's. Wait for a signal from the central bank (e.g. their raising rates).
Yet, we have no signs that they are experiencing a turnaround in the economy since the real estate crisis began in the mid 90's. Wait for a signal from the central bank (e.g. their raising rates).
Just reading Taleb for the second time. The risk in buying a dip is that it might not be a dip.
Personally I think its too early for the big recession ... but exact timing has never been my strength so I just follow the trend. Now, remind me, what does the trend on NK look like?
Personally I think its too early for the big recession ... but exact timing has never been my strength so I just follow the trend. Now, remind me, what does the trend on NK look like?
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i wouldn't bet against a good trader yet for how slim the chances, you may have to keep avg in what seems like an eternity just to make it worth it. if not already famiiar with sgxnk options just look 'em up: are a viable alternative to stocks and futs and can trade at a very good discount when vega drops and at a juicy premo when vega rises, becoming a much attractive vehicle.
all da best
all da best
Quote from Longhorns:
If this were a U.S. exchange, I think a 30% drop would get all the "long term" traders fired up to buy on the cheap.
I am buying because....
1) I have zero exposure to the Japanese markets and I wanted to diversify a little.
2) I think alot of the emerging market money will go into Japan as a "relative" safe haven compared to the other Asian markets.
3) I don't think Japanese banks have much exposure to the sub prime mess like many other countries have.
I bought my first block of DXJLX (Direxion Japan Bull 2x) around 11.50 (Currently 10.65 after the last two horrendous days). Looking to add on further weakness.
Anyone else dipping in with a longer term perspective?
Just wanted to bump this thread and get an update from you guys that were bullish on japanese equities a year ago today.
Are you bullish still, accumulating?
If so what specifically do you like right now?
Are you bullish still, accumulating?
If so what specifically do you like right now?