Nikkei 225 short trade journal

N

Nighthawk

The Japanese are planing a sales tax increase in April 2014. As usual, it will diminish a couple of percentage points from their GDP (in the past they did it a couple of times and their GDP took always a beating).

If anybody thinks that Abenomics will rescue Japan = hum, no way. Take a look at their demographics. Japan is doomed. Question is just when it will collapse under the weight of their government debt.

Short Nikkei 225@ 15.565,00, target 14.995,00 and below.

Stop: won´t tell you :D
 
Druckenmiller was recently saying that Nikkei is seasonally very strong between Novemer and March (or maybe May) and that it's a no lose trade with a weaker yen and the seasonality. Apparently even during the massive Japanese bear market the Nov-Ma period was still a winner. You can find it on Bloomberg.
 
Quote from billyjoerob:

Druckenmiller was recently saying that Nikkei is seasonally very strong between Novemer and March (or maybe May) and that it's a no lose trade with a weaker yen and the seasonality. Apparently even during the massive Japanese bear market the Nov-Ma period was still a winner. You can find it on Bloomberg.
More...

Yes, I also watched that. That seasonality stat was surprising, given the size of the decline over a lengthy time period. In which case, brave short, Nighthawk. Timeframe is six months, then? And what's your investment currency - USD I presume? Are you going to measure performance purely on NK % change, or translated back (unhedged) into investment currency ?
 
Quote from billyjoerob:

Druckenmiller was recently saying that Nikkei is seasonally very strong between Novemer and March (or maybe May) and that it's a no lose trade with a weaker yen and the seasonality. Apparently even during the massive Japanese bear market the Nov-Ma period was still a winner. You can find it on Bloomberg.
More...

Stanley Druckenmiller is lately all over the media. He should keep some secrets for himself....

Anyway, target still below 14995.
 
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