Niederhoffer's year end contest! ($2500 prize for 3 best 2011 trading ideas)
- Thread starter 1prometheus
- Start date
Quote from Visaria:
Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated
I welcome you this Tuesday morning. I hope you had a wonderful Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. I will be remiss if I did not speculate on how on after Martin Luther King, Jr.'s 2008 holiday, the S&P witnessed a sharp selloff. It was at 1200 then. (the S&P dropped hard during this time interval). Now, we are at 1293. I wonder how much money the "flexions" harvested on the backs of the non flexions? And I cannot wonder if today will witness another selloff by the "flexions" to harvest more of a working stiff's honest money. As LoBagola, a West African native wrote in his book "LoBagola: An African Savageâs Own Story", the trampling elephants (flexions) predictably romped everything in their paths whenever they wanted. And a month later, they would return to the SAME path and exercise their will at the natives' expense, as they watched helplessly (does this not rhyme with today's economic climate in your city?). It was exceedingly symmetric, Gann-like, and frustratingly obvious. And such phenomena are apparent in the markets today, and will be, forever.
So true. They probably had a large committee (sworn to secrecy) to advise Steve Jobs on when and how to take his medical leave. Since he obviously knew the Apple earnings would blow away expectations, and since he announced his medical leave over a three day holiday, he picked the most statistically opportune time to take his medical leave, which would have had the least impact on his precious stock.
Not to seem like a pessimist, but pancreatic cancer has one of the lowest survival rates of all carcinomas. Especially since he had a liver transplant, the disease must have metastasized, possibly to the lymph nodes.
I concur wholeheartedly. Those people you mention like
Steve Jobs basically run the game with their own rules, any way they like, whenever they like. I did see a lot of call and put activity in Apple options just before the announcement. I wonder how many of Apple insiders acted on that information. Surely some did. But I am confident they did so in a way that would be difficult to detect. For instance, instead of buying up puts outright, they could have sold bearish call spreads.
When I myself was really "in the game", I noted there was a tremendous amount of insider information being passed around. It was so widespread, that policing it all would be impossible. It is like stopping girls from "flashing" for beads at Marti Gras.
Lobagola strikes!
Has it occurred to you when one has a fatal/possibly fatal disease, the unknown factors can be unknown to the person sick as well? Predicting Lifespan of the potentially terminally ill is not an exact science. Just ask insurance companies as it relates to aids patients.
We know he has a type of cancer that does not have a good survival rate. That is the most valuable information and beyond that I doubt there is much that is of use.
Dear 1prometheus,
Yes, I agree with you that the previous poster's calling Steve Jobs a douchebag was a little harsh. We can only pray for Steve Jobs, as he likely does not have long to live. His rather fragile appearance is doubtless because of his liver function, as the liver secretes much of the enzymes to digest his meals. I understand what the previous poster was saying though. The playing field is far from level. I remember hearing about Goldman Sachs' employees selling short the MBS that the firms was advocating and selling (and how unethical that was). Back in the late 90's, when the Internet stocks were floating into orbit, so many traders were e-mailing me and even laughing at the valuations that they just argued were cheap on CNBC. It was all so dishonest and immoral. As I argued, the "flexions" will harvest all of our hard earned money. Without extensive scientific testing, I argue that any trader is doomed in this manipulated environment.
If one takes away anything from what I say, please backtest any trading ideas you have. One poster contacted me who uses TOS (Think or Swim) from TD Ameritrade... and asked for advice. I looked at their software, and it is good. They have something I saw called "ThinkBack" and has extensive older data. It seems invaluable. I agree with other posters that such backtesting and demo accounts may have significant drawbacks (as one never knows how they will trade when actual dollars are at stake), but if your trading system (and you must have a system in place) does not work with previous data, it will never work in real life.
Test, test, test!
Yes 1prometheus. The SPX and Nasdaq caught quite a beating today. Is this the part where retail investors, finally talked into believing all the hype from shill sites and talking heads at CNBC come rushing back in to pick up "bargains" being unloaded by insiders and professionals (i.e. the flexions)?
Thoreau, thank you for offering your perspective on options trading. I have traded futures for about 12 years but have never traded an options contract.
With futures (a simple directional play) I can visualize or conceptualize the types of market dynamics that can create an edge over a few hours to a few days, and I have been able to utilize backtesting to clarify my strategies.
I have never traded an options contract because I am not able to "get my hands" around them well enough to make what I think would be an intelligent approach.
For example I was aware of one of the trading edges you mentioned in a prior post but implement it via a simple directional play.
What is the dynamic in options trading that creates an edge beyond directional positioning? I can understand attempting to take advantage of time decay, yet I do not see the beyond where one gets an edge from this rather than just a % winner.
It could lack of data, but even here before I approached Data with futures trading I had already developed a number of useful mental models or hypothesis that prevented blind groping.
With futures (a simple directional play) I can visualize or conceptualize the types of market dynamics that can create an edge over a few hours to a few days, and I have been able to utilize backtesting to clarify my strategies.
I have never traded an options contract because I am not able to "get my hands" around them well enough to make what I think would be an intelligent approach.
For example I was aware of one of the trading edges you mentioned in a prior post but implement it via a simple directional play.
What is the dynamic in options trading that creates an edge beyond directional positioning? I can understand attempting to take advantage of time decay, yet I do not see the beyond where one gets an edge from this rather than just a % winner.
It could lack of data, but even here before I approached Data with futures trading I had already developed a number of useful mental models or hypothesis that prevented blind groping.