Niederhoffer's year end contest! ($2500 prize for 3 best 2011 trading ideas)

Quote from Pekelo:

To paraphrase it in the style of the everlasting George W.:

My mind is like a parachute, it is only open for a short period of time and useful only when I am falling. Or something like that...

Now if you don't mind, I have to go and make a jump....
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Dear Pekelo,

As I mentioned before, I hope you do not believe I am Mr. Niederhoffer. I don't seriously believe anyone here conjectures that I am he. I never pretended to be, I just am very close to him. My only interest in defending him is because he is a generous and humble man, and I do not believe he deserves to be attacked by complete fabrications. However, there are quite of few of us "veteran" traders that do come to this website to share information. If you consider the number of page views, www.elitetrader.com is a quite respectable site. I have also heard credible rumors of many rather well known traders that do post here at elite trader. I personally was surprised that many of my friends are aware of ET because some of the posters are rather distasteful, but this community has grown quite a bit and has some proper content.

After a well known market wizard spoke and "name dropped" ET on a media outlet some time ago, I made some contacts and realized that many of my good friends (who are well regarded serious traders) do visit this site on many occasions. It is a rather free community and not subject to silly censors.

The problem is that it is difficult to distill the pure from the impure. Some threads are just nonsense and some are just plain offensive. But there are a few threads that are both informative and amusing. And I enjoy the free spirit of the community.

I only wish to share my own knowledge with good people such as yourself in order that you may become more profitable. Like Victor, I have made and lost millions. And if I can help other newly minted traders avoid some of the serious mistakes that I lament making myself, then I know I would have served my purpose here. As my word is my oath, I am not a "troll" who has never traded or any such newbie seeking superficial attention. There are no sinister or selfish motives at work. I remain, humbly, as your friend.
 
Speaking of India, holy cow, reading the posts it seems nobody slept last night...

Quote from thoreau777:

Dear Pekelo,

As I mentioned before, I hope you do not believe I am Mr. Niederhoffer.
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Well, for one, nobody saw you and Victor at the same time in the same place. But may be that is just a coincidence.... :)
You do post from behind a proxy, and I don't see any good reason for that, unless you try to hide something. But let's move on and entertain/educate each other.

The reason why most people here believe Matador was selling naked S&P puts is because if we simplify and approximate the HF's performance, that is what the record shows. I pointed this out a few months back already. It doesn't matter how complicated strategy a black box/HF uses, how many quants are programing the strategy, what Fib ratios or Moon phases are involved,etc. it eventually boils down to input (market movements) and output (HF performance). In most cases it is rather simple to reverse engineer what a black box/HF is most likely doing. The performance chart of Matador shows that its strategy behaved as it was selling naked puts...

If you wish to argue this, let's put up Matador's chart here and go over it together. Your Walmart analogy earlier was a good one. It doesn't matter what the friend did inside Walmart (might got a sandwich,talked to an old friend, had sex with the cashier) if he came out only with the lighter, the only thing we can conclude, that he only bought a lighter, while he was inside....
 
I recall reading a biography of George Soros some time ago. He said he had invested money with Niederhoffer and the acct did v well. Then whatever Victor was using stopped working and so he (that is Victor) closed Soro's acct down and returned the money to Soros. When asked by the interviewer if Soros still had any money invested with Victor, he said no.

I think Soros had a close look at the way Victor speculates and realised it was not for him. I believe he realised at some point he would lose all his money if he continued to invest with him.

Well, if it ain't for Soros, it ain't for me either!

P.S. I have read on this thread that they were partners, which is nonsensical. Just because Soros may have invested money with Victor at one time, that does not mean they were partners! Akin to saying I once invested in Goldman Sachs's hedge funds, so therefore I was once a partner of Goldman Sachs.
 
Quote from Visaria:

I recall reading a biography of George Soros some time ago. He said he had invested money with Niederhoffer and the acct did v well. Then whatever Victor was using stopped working and so he (that is Victor) closed Soro's acct down and returned the money to Soros. When asked by the interviewer if Soros still had any money invested with Victor, he said no.

I think Soros had a close look at the way Victor speculates and realised it was not for him. I believe he realised at some point he would lose all his money if he continued to invest with him.

Well, if it ain't for Soros, it ain't for me either!

P.S. I have read on this thread that they were partners, which is nonsensical. Just because Soros may have invested money with Victor at one time, that does not mean they were partners! Akin to saying I once invested in Goldman Sachs's hedge funds, so therefore I was once a partner of Goldman Sachs.
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Dear Visaria,

Please recheck your sources, Victor was indeed close friends with George Soros, and spoke and even played tennis together on many occasions. Again you made an error when you thought regarding Soros "I believe he realised at some point he would lose all his money if he continued to invest with him." Your supposition is completely incorrect.
 
If you want to follow or invest with a "Victor", then Victor Sperandeo is your man, not Niederhoffer. Sperandeo has 45 years of trading experience and has had Soros phoning him up asking him if he would manage money for him (i have no idea whether he plays tennis with him or not, unlikely given Soros is 80 years old).

I'm sure there's more info on Sperandeo on this forum, but his 1st 2 books are a must read.
 
If you are saying something that in the real world would rightly earn you a punch in the face please refrain from posting. The vulgarity is not needed. I will delete this comment if the offending post is removed.
 
Quote from thoreau777:

Again you made an error when you thought regarding Soros "I believe he realized at some point he would lose all his money if he continued to invest with him." Your supposition is completely incorrect.
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Well, according to Soros from his book: (talking about Vic)

"There was a flaw in his approach however. It is valid only in a trendless market. If there is a historical trend, a tide, .... he can be very seriously hurt, because he doesn't have a proper fail-safe mechanism."

As quoted in the thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...75700&perpage=20&highlight=soros&pagenumber=5
 
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