Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

romik · Jun 25, 2015

I am currently enjoying downturn in Palladium (posted well in advance).

Btw once you place a successful countertrend trade and new trend sets in aren't you then technically following a trend?

marketsurfer · Jun 25, 2015

kut2k2 said:
Is it really a dollar sign? Or is it an S with a slash through it, indicating that I'm no superhero?

Great humor, love it!

i am nobody · Jun 25, 2015

marketsurfer said:
Trend only exists in the past---

Yes, and the earth is flat, not round I suppose.

I can forward the posting too, don't need you for that. I know him as well as you.

It apparently does not bother you that you are so arrogant and pretentious. Most people who are like that need that to compensate for other important things they miss.

syswizard · Jun 25, 2015

romik said:
Btw once you place a successful countertrend trade and new trend sets in aren't you then technically following a trend?

Maybe once in a while. Technically, countertrend trading is betting against the current trend for a pullback and taking a quick profit. A good example is the Shanghai index. A countertrend trader would have been placing sell stop orders below the market for the past several months. Wham, it would have gotten snagged for a quick profit these past 2 weeks.
Better examples can be seen in intraday trading in the S&P 500 futures which just seem to meander without trend for most of the day.

romik · Jun 25, 2015

syswizard said:
Maybe once in a while. Technically, countertrend trading is betting against the current trend for a pullback and taking a quick profit. A good example is the Shanghai index. A countertrend trader would have been placing sell stop orders below the market for the past several months. Wham, it would have gotten snagged for a quick profit these past 2 weeks.
Better examples can be seen in intraday trading in the S&P 500 futures which just seem to meander without trend for most of the day.

I get all that. What's the difference between going countertrend and re-joining a trend after a pullback? Let's not solely point to intraday price oscillations or did VN specifically suggest that trend intraday trading sucks?

Pekelo · Jun 25, 2015

This thread has the wrong title. The correct would be:

Trend followers think Niederhoffer (Victor that is) sucks.

monoid · Jun 25, 2015

Pekelo said:
This thread has the wrong title. The correct would be:

Trend followers think Niederhoffer (Victor that is) sucks.

Well, I don't think Niederhoffer sucks. I have immense respect for the man. However, his opinions are his, and should not be construed as gospel (meaning as used: something accepted or promoted as infallible truth or as a guiding principle or doctrine -- webster) as his followers here seem to be doing.

So, the title should remain as is! (no personal attacks; but, allowing an attack on opinion which is fair game)

marketsurfer · Jun 25, 2015

romik said:
I am currently enjoying downturn in Palladium (posted well in advance).

Btw once you place a successful countertrend trade and new trend sets in aren't you then technically following a trend?

I have always maintained that once you enter a directional trade, you need to be with the trend.

My belief is that trend is irrelevent prior to entry as it is a subjective construct with no objective before the fact value. surf

monoid · Jun 25, 2015

marketsurfer said:
I have always maintained that once you enter a directional trade, you need to be with the trend.

My belief is that trend is irrelevent prior to entry as it is a subjective construct with no objective before the fact value. surf

My dear Surf: You are at it again. Ok, let us try to reason:

Goal: To fly a kite.
Requirement: There must be wind for a kite to fly.

Now, you are saying: It doesn't matter if there is wind at present or not, what matters is for wind to be present after the kite is set in motion.
[Granted, this is required for the kite to keep flying]

Scenario A
Let us assume there is currently no wind. Would you still go out and try to set the kite in motion expecting wind will somehow pick up and help the kite fly?

Scenario B
I would rather wait for some wind to be present, then go out and set the kite in motion expecting that the current wind flow continues so that my kite keeps flying. Granted, the wind flow might die after my kite is set in motion, but at least my expectations are inductively valid.

Now, which one makes more sense to you? Now, don't argue for the sake of arguing. Give it some thought and respond.

-Monoid.

marketsurfer · Jun 25, 2015

monoid said:
My dear Surf: You are at it again. Ok, let us try to reason:

Goal: To fly a kite.
Requirement: There must be wind for a kite to fly.

Now, you are saying: It doesn't matter if there is wind at present or not, what matters is for wind to be present after the kite is set in motion.
[Granted, this is required for the kite to keep flying]

Scenario A
Let us assume there is currently no wind. Would you still go out and try to set the kite in motion expecting wind will somehow pick up and help the kite fly?

Scenario B
I would rather wait for some wind to be present, then go out and set the kite in motion expecting that the current wind flow continues so that my kite keeps flying.

Now, which one makes more sense to you? Now, don't argue for the sake of arguing. Give it some thought and respond.

-Monoid.

You have fallen for a market myth.

The old apple and oranges argument. Wind has nothing to do with prices. Are you saying that buying into upward trending prices improves the likelihood that price will continue higher after you enter?

If so, are you able to quantify this claim? If not, why not.