Not your thread, surf. You don't get to say who moves along.only if you are an attractive female--otherwise move along
Unless you're finally admitting that you are GloriaBrown.
Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks
- Thread starter GloriaBrown
- Start date
Unless you're finally admitting that you are GloriaBrown.
Not your thread, surf. You don't get to say who moves along.
Unless you're finally admitting that you are GloriaBrown.
Agree-- only joking!!
No, im not ms. Brown
surf
Following the trend sucks, but not following the trend wipes out.
Choose between bad and evil.
I must confess I only read the first 3 pages and skipped the rest after the usual arguments started.
I, for one, regard Niederhoffer almost as a hero. I was a non performing trader for a decade. After reading Niederhoffer's first book, I finally managed to jump into the markets in a systematic way. I have never looked back since 1999 after I read the book for the second time and started doing it the "scientific way".
Why do you guys always think of something as black or white? I read a lot of books, and take the wisdom where it is. Be flexible and adaptive. There is no correct or wrong way in the markets. But I have since 1999 made a decent amount of money, solely based on mean reverting strategies from 0-10 day horizon.
I, for one, regard Niederhoffer almost as a hero. I was a non performing trader for a decade. After reading Niederhoffer's first book, I finally managed to jump into the markets in a systematic way. I have never looked back since 1999 after I read the book for the second time and started doing it the "scientific way".
Why do you guys always think of something as black or white? I read a lot of books, and take the wisdom where it is. Be flexible and adaptive. There is no correct or wrong way in the markets. But I have since 1999 made a decent amount of money, solely based on mean reverting strategies from 0-10 day horizon.
@Pasternak: I don't think anybody making their case here is "think[ing] of something as black or white". In fact, everyone is asking that Mr. Neiderhoffer and his cronies adhere to what you have said above: "Be flexible and adaptive. There is no correct or wrong way in the markets." ..... so, why should trend following suck (or not suck); or for that matter, why should mean-reversion suck (or not suck)?
Regards,
Monoid.
Last edited:
You are correct, flexibility is key-- however via extensive testing certain tactics can be proven to be superior. Testing clearly indicates trend following ( as defined) is inferior.
What testing have u conducted to show the superiority of trend following?
While we are on the topic. If you flip a quarter 10 times and get heads 10 times -- are experiencing a heads trend?
Furthermore, how many up moves or series of upmoves increase the odds that the next move or series will be in the same direction?
Trend following is not quantifiable and provides no edge.
surf
Last edited:
Inferior to what? Please be specific.
Is TF the worst of all possible trading strategies? Is it the best except for Method Z? Please specify.
My Lord, Do you mean to imply that one should only follow 'superior' trading strategies? If so, what shall be of those lowly beings who make money following 'inferior' trading strategies?
I, My Lord, can hardly add 3 things together. Can you please let us know what the probability of what you said above is? Just in-case your PhD friends are out for a drink and you have to do it on your own, people have told me to use something called 'binomial distribution' to calculate it. I hope I spelled it correctly! And, what shall be the probability of getting 9 heads in 10 tries? And what shall such probabilities reveal about trend continuation? You, Milord, can surely enlighten and educate us based on your calculations.
Are you, Milord, trying to predict the next 'series of moves' based on trend? What shall be of those who don't seem to use trend that way?
You are all knowledgeable. I bow to Thee.
Last edited:
Monoid, rather than using sarcasm , why not ad some value by explaining what trend means to you and how you use that meaning to create profits. surf