Niederhoffer thinks "follow the trend" sucks

[marketsurfer]

Than again VN can't really back his claim, can he now? His opinion is subjective.

you are so out of your league its not even funny. You better reread Covel's book-- in which i am name checked-- to brush up on your trend trading knowledge. LMFAO!!

 

[Visaria]

Surf, how has Niederhoffer been doing in the last few years? Is he running money again? Do you know what his returns are? Just curious, not trolling.

 

[marketsurfer]

Surf, how has Niederhoffer been doing in the last few years? Is he running money again? Do you know what his returns are? Just curious, not trolling.

Hi,

He is happily trading his own account and enjoying life. No idea as to performance, but he talks about his trading on his twitter feed. surf

 

[Visaria]

Ta, good for him.

 

[marketsurfer]

View attachment 153959

If its up, its going up-- if its down, its going down. Badaboom badabing.

 

[Butterball]

Countertrend trading can be very profitable. The problem with Vic was that he was in total denial about the very risky strategy of selling options NAKED.

You realize that the risk profile of counter-trend trading and short puts is 100% identical? Both are short volatility and benefit from declining vol. Both get hurt if vol extends much farther than anticipated.

There is absolutely nothing more risky in a short put strategy vs. buying dips in the underlying.

 

[MrN]

Ok, here is a question to all the critics.. Why is it that Victor has taught more great 7,8,9, even 10 figure traders than almost anyone? Why is it that to this day he is one of the greatest futures traders in history? Why did a top hedge fund trader tell me, "He is the greatest non-automated futures trader alive?" All the critics can't explain this fact, they just look at 2 events in a very long career.

He is an old man who has been trading for most of his life. I suggest that the critics learn some (dare I say it?) respect.

 

[MrN]

Sure. If you are in a trade and it is persistently going against you and you are progressively losing more money on it, then price is trending in the opposite direction of your trade. How can you tell, and how can you test the premise of this trend? Keep watching your account balance in real time. And if your trade happens to be on the right side of directional price movement then you can also measure the validity of that trend by the real time pattern occurring in your account balance.

Of course, there are many time frames to consider, and there may be countertrends and such occurring in those different time frames at any moment. But the only trend that matters to you at any one time is the one that is reflected in your account: is it moving up on balance, or is it moving down? And there's your answer.

Perhaps you may think that the trend is illusory because it doesn't continue or because, over a specified period of time, it may be offset by a countermove or series of countermoves thereby invalidating its very premise in your eyes. But even then, the price action over an arbitrarily selected period of time need not be trending on balance in order to capitalize on intermittent trending within it. The trend may not continue after a time, but then, your trade doesn't have to either. And that's all that matters.

The problem is that you are defining "trend" with hindsight - how what just happened impacted your account. To be useful you need to compute an expected value for the future, not look at the past. That is the issue.

 

[dbphoenix]

If its up, its going up-- if its down, its going down. Badaboom badabing.

 

[Butterball]

All the critics can't explain this fact, they just look at 2 events in a very long career.

Trading is a lot like boxing. You're just as good as your last fight (or monthly return). Niederhoffer - in boxing terms - was knocked out like an amateur TWICE by absolute journeymen. That certainly is career damaging.

Nobody cares with Niederhoffer was a great teacher. You don't win prices for that in capitalism.